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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#341

Post by mytailorisrich »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #338
mytailorisrich wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's not making an extraordinary claim, just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts. In fact this is the most likely scenario (Wuhan was the first known outbreak but the virus does not originate from there) Could we also stop dropping "CCP propaganda" everytime someone writes something others disagree with?

> just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts What facts support a European source for SARS-Cov2, that then stealthily traversed two continents, to then super spread in Wuhan, Hubei?

Wuhan was the first recognised outbreak but it's most likely that the virus had been circulating in humans for some time before that. This is neither an extraordinary nor controversial claim.

Now, I believe that the claim about Italy was a bit tongue in cheek but at the same time it is reasonable based on facts and should be thought provoking:

We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way)

Now, based on that why would the origin necessarily be Wuhan? Logically, the earlier the cases the closer they are from origin.

The origin of infectious diseases is always tricky to establish. After years we're still not sure about the origin of MERS and possibly SARS. It took decades to pinpoint that HIV appeared in the 1920s, almost 60 years before it can to the world's attention.

While it is still most likely that Covid-19 arose in China we do not know where and when.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#342

Post by a0-prw »

It would be very interesting to do this same study earlier than December 2019, since quite a lot of bood from donors in that month tested positive already

Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations to identify SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies: December 2019-January 2020

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid...

So maybe the lab theory is true and it was a leak from a US lab

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#344

Post by DoingIsLearning »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #341
DoingIsLearning wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just a sensible possible conclusion based on established facts What facts support a European source for SARS-Cov2, that then stealthily traversed two continents, to then super spread in Wuhan, Hubei?

Wuhan was the first recognised outbreak but it's most likely that the virus had been circulating in humans for some time before that. This is neither an extraordinary nor controversial claim. Now, I believe that the claim about Italy was a bit tongue in cheek but at the same time it is reasonable based on facts and should be thought provoking: We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and per…

> We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way)

Can you provide a peer-reviewed source that documents this timeline, you claim "established facts" but to my knowledge there aren't any?

> While it is still most likely that Covid-19 arose in China we do not know where and when.

On that we can both agree.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#345

Post by mytailorisrich »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #344
mytailorisrich wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wuhan was the first recognised outbreak but it's most likely that the virus had been circulating in humans for some time before that. This is neither an extraordinary nor controversial claim. Now, I believe that the claim about Italy was a bit tongue in cheek but at the same time it is reasonable based on facts and should be thought provoking: We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and per…

> We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way) Can you provide a peer-reviewed source that documents this timeline, you claim "established facts" but to my knowledge there aren't any? > While it is still most…

First positive tests in France are end of December [1] [2](meaning the people caught the virus days or a week before that). Strongly suspected cases based on thoracic scanners are up to mid November [3].

In Italy people were contaminated even earlier than that, apparently [4].

These are not wholly surprising because, again it is likely that the virus had been circulating for some time in humans before it exploded and was detected. It is quite contagious but many people do not experience any symptoms or only mild, common symptoms, which IMO makes it relatively easy to go undetected until it goes out out of hands, as it did in Wuhan first.

It's good to ask for proof but then you should ask for proof of all claims, not only the ones you do not like.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

[2] https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-report...

[3] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-evidence-race-find-fr...

[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-...

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#346

Post by matheweis »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #344
mytailorisrich wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wuhan was the first recognised outbreak but it's most likely that the virus had been circulating in humans for some time before that. This is neither an extraordinary nor controversial claim. Now, I believe that the claim about Italy was a bit tongue in cheek but at the same time it is reasonable based on facts and should be thought provoking: We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and per…

> We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way) Can you provide a peer-reviewed source that documents this timeline, you claim "established facts" but to my knowledge there aren't any? > While it is still most…

In Italy; November 2019: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/news-sca...

In France; December 2019: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7196402/

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#347

Post by manigandham »

dash2 wrote: post #305
manigandham wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the null hypothesis is unknown origin. Science doesn't just default to either explanation without evidence.

That’s untrue. Null hypotheses are indeed typically “defaults” - for example, assuming, prior to any evidence, that X has no correlation with Y in the population. If you want to put it in a Bayesian framework, scientists cannot avoid priors any more than anybody else.

That's why it would be unknown origin, not zoonosis. They don't default to picking one over the other in the absence of evidence for either.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#348

Post by GlenTheMachine »

casion wrote: post #292
GlenTheMachine wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not clear to me how they make money other than by winning their bets. What am I missing?

This is a company that is selling a product, and they're receiving a GREAT deal of publicity about their utilization of a methodology core to their offerings.

What’s the product?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#349

Post by bart_spoon »

rcpt wrote: post #260
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything that I've read suggests the bats from which the virus likely originated can only be found hundreds of kilometers away, so it must have been brought into Wuhan somehow. Either for food, or for research, unless you can propose another explanation? > The bats carrying CoV ZC45 were originally found in Yunnan or Zhejiang province, both of which were more than 900 kilometers away from the seafood market. Bats w…

With asymptomatic transmission the virus likely would have spread unnoticed in the town that was encroaching on bats for a while before someone brought it to Wuhan.

Highly unlikely given the distances involved. This would be the equivalent of a disease found in bats native to northern Ohio somehow breaking out down the road from the CDC in Atlanta, Georgia, with no other cities or towns showing traces of breakouts prior.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#350

Post by DoingIsLearning »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #345
DoingIsLearning wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We now know that there were cases of Covid-19 in Italy and France, and perhaps US iirc, at the same time, and perhaps before, the outbreak around that market in Wuhan, as early as November. (So, yes the virus did stealthily traverse continents, by the way) Can you provide a peer-reviewed source that documents this timeline, you claim "established facts" but to my knowledge there aren't any? > While it is still most…

First positive tests in France are end of December [1] [2](meaning the people caught the virus days or a week before that). Strongly suspected cases based on thoracic scanners are up to mid November [3]. In Italy people were contaminated even earlier than that, apparently [4]. These are not wholly surprising because, again it is likely that the virus had been circulating for some time in humans before it exploded and…

> "I would be very cautious," about these findings, said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco, who was also not a part of the study. The results "have to be confirmed with different antibody tests," that look for the prevalence of antibodies that target other parts of the coronavirus.

> His previous experience has shown that such antibody tests for the coronavirus' RBD can create a lot of false positives, Rutherford told Live Science. And because this is "such an unexpected finding," it should be confirmed with other antibody tests such as those that look for antibodies against another one of the coronavirus' proteins, an outer coat called a "nucleocapsid," which is also unique to the novel coronavirus, he said.

> Still, "it's not totally outside the realm of possibility," that the virus circulated in Italy earlier than thought. because there is a lot of travel back and forth between China and Italy, especially northern Italy, he said. But considering the earliest COVID-19 case in Wuhan was reported to be in November, "it really gives me pause to say let's really make sure we got this right before we try and explain it," Rutherford said. [0]

[0] https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-circulating-italy-ea...

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