Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

Post by casion » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 2:03 AM UTC

GlenTheMachine wrote: post #88

weare138 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, like under the 'WIV lab procedures' section it states: Probabilistic Estimates: Labs with lax security and procedures are conservatively estimated as 2x more likely to produce a lab escape. However, since the reports are not very reliable, this is reduced to 1.5x. There's no explanation or methodology presented as to how they derive these probabilities based on articles they found in the news and most of the…

The nice thing about Bayesian analysis is that you have to make your priors explicit. That’s what this is, a prior. It doesn’t have to have a derivation; it can just be a guess. The important thing is that you’re writing your guess down so everyone can see it. You can then also do a sensitivity analysis to figure out how much your conclusions change if you modify your priors. So if you, the reader, think the priors a…

Post by sharken » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 2:06 AM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #250

eloff wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I initially thought having a big bio lab in the city where the pandemic started, in a country with a history of managing security in their bio labs poorly, in a lab known for studying sars like coronaviruses, including gain of function research to better bind to human ace2 receptors was just too many coincidences. You have to admit it's believable. But then when you realize how many people in rural China have b…

The whole lab thing is people getting cause and effect mixed up, the lab is there because novel coronaviruses keep happening in that region, but because all people know is that COVID-19 is new (and none of the history) they immediately jump to that the lab specializing in this type of disease at the epicenter is too big of a coincidence to ignore (rather than it being there exactly because it is a common epicenter).…

Post by ibejoeb » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 2:09 AM UTC

eloff wrote: post #247

MilnerRoute wrote: post #241

Peter Daszak, the president of the EcoHealth Alliance researching the origins of pandemics, pointed out in April that nearly 3% of the population in China's rural farming regions near wild animals already had antibodies to coronaviruses similar to SARS. "We're finding 1 to 7 million people exposed to these viruses every year in Southeast Asia; that's the pathway. It's just so obvious to all of us working in the field…

Yeah, I initially thought having a big bio lab in the city where the pandemic started, in a country with a history of managing security in their bio labs poorly, in a lab known for studying sars like coronaviruses, including gain of function research to better bind to human ace2 receptors was just too many coincidences. You have to admit it's believable. But then when you realize how many people in rural China have b…

Post by incrudible » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 2:14 AM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #250

eloff wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I initially thought having a big bio lab in the city where the pandemic started, in a country with a history of managing security in their bio labs poorly, in a lab known for studying sars like coronaviruses, including gain of function research to better bind to human ace2 receptors was just too many coincidences. You have to admit it's believable. But then when you realize how many people in rural China have b…

The whole lab thing is people getting cause and effect mixed up, the lab is there because novel coronaviruses keep happening in that region, but because all people know is that COVID-19 is new (and none of the history) they immediately jump to that the lab specializing in this type of disease at the epicenter is too big of a coincidence to ignore (rather than it being there exactly because it is a common epicenter).…

Post by phkahler » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 2:19 AM UTC

MilnerRoute wrote: post #241

Peter Daszak, the president of the EcoHealth Alliance researching the origins of pandemics, pointed out in April that nearly 3% of the population in China's rural farming regions near wild animals already had antibodies to coronaviruses similar to SARS. "We're finding 1 to 7 million people exposed to these viruses every year in Southeast Asia; that's the pathway. It's just so obvious to all of us working in the field…