Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it • Hacker News Board

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Post by hrktb » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:14 AM UTC

dvsfish wrote: post #183

hrktb wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it still matter that much once we have a series of effective vaccines ? It seems the crux of the argument is to better react in the short term, but it looks to my untrained eyes that we already passed that level of investigation if we have effective means to prevent infection. I also guess we’d still need to explore all other tracks anyway (we can’t just focus on lab spills for instance, if that was the root cau…

What about other potential viruses though? We don't have vaccines for those.

Those other viruses could as well come from bats or be leaked. I’m arguing that precise knowledge of what happened a year ago might not be a priority to help us deal with what happens in the real world now.

Basically I see it as preparing to win the last war.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#222

Post by artichokes » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:15 AM UTC

thelittleone wrote: post #197

tomp wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm inclined to agree with you based on my political views, but in this case.... Chinese were pretty reserved about outsiders meddling in their internal affairs already before Covid, so this isn't necessarily indicative.

China has claimed that COVID started in anywhere but China. Australia: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9024311/China-claim... India: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8993667/Now-Chinese... Italy: https://www.the-sun.com/news/1824950/china-accuses-italy-sta... US Army: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-claims-that-the-u... Since the common belief is that COVID originated in China, they stand…

How would they benefit?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#223

Post by defen » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:15 AM UTC

arthur2e5 wrote: post #192

cle wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, it's because this claim, or rejection of it, is strongly tied to political identity. Because the US is highly polarized right now, once political identity comes into play, you've left the realm of rationality and entered the realm of tribalism.

In China too. With the foreign ministry spokespersons repeatedly making US bioweapon suggestions, believing otherwise is more political than just following the rest of weibo. The media is more than happy to report on early detections out of China, and let suggestions that the vape lung (now linked to vit. E cutting agent) is COVID run free. We left the realm of rationality long ago, when the government did a tribalis…

> The govt still funds crackpots to argue against Chinese people originating in africa, to call greco-roman and egyptian history faked, and don't even get me started on their insistence on 5k years

Wait what? The Chinese government does this? Who do they claim faked Greco-Roman and Egyptian history, and to what end? And what is 5k years supposed to be? The age of the earth or something?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Post by chillacy » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:21 AM UTC

rjsw wrote: post #207

beloch wrote: post #193

Caveat Emptor. 1. This isn't the product of researchers. It's the product of an algorithm that also happens to be a product that is being advertised. From the "About Rootclaim" page: "Proven probabilistic inference models – The model breaks down highly complex issues into small questions that are each answerable by humans, and then uses these answers to reach mathematically indisputable conclusions. Openly crowdsourc…

A startup providing conspiracy theories as a service.

Their other conclusions are all pretty sensible. E.g. Does the MMR vaccine cause autism? Ans: no https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-...

This technique looks reminiscent of "superforecasting".

Caveat that their conclusion hinges on their assumptions, and we would expect that about 2/10 of their 80% predictions would actually be false if we could score them all.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Post by epmaybe » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:21 AM UTC

As an aside: I particularly enjoyed the film Outbreak (Kevin spacey notwithstanding), it's a not totally unrelated plot to the linked theory. It's on Netflix!

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Post by SpaceRaccoon » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:21 AM UTC

freddie_mercury wrote: post #219

someperson wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People use wet market synonymously with 'exotic wildlife market' that sell living caged animals in outdoor unsanitary conditions. Often cages stacked on top of each other. Factory farming of eg, chickens and pigs has previously led to avian and swine flu outbreaks, so there's strict monitoring of viruses around those farm monocultures. But in the wet markets of Asia there's often multiple species together that would…

Some people might use it that way. No one who lives in Asia around wet markets uses it that way. Regardless, it doesn't change my point that China never banned wet markets, not even for one day.

But they should be, because research and reasoning indicate that Chinese wet-markets are uniquely dangerous in their propensity to create, or spread, novel viruses.

See "Infectious diseases emerging from Chinese wet-markets: zoonotic origins of severe respiratory viral infections" [2006]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16940861/

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#227

Post by sjwright » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:22 AM UTC

cyode wrote: post #181

rcoveson wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many ambiguous date formats, but this is not one of them. Four digits, delimiter, two digits, delimiter, two digits always means year, month, day, no matter where you are in the world[0]. Well, except in Kazakhstan, but only when writing in the Khazakh language. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Date_format_by_country

> There are many ambiguous date formats, but this is not one of them. The comment you've replied to is a counterexample to this claim.

Confusion due to a lack of awareness of an unambiguous standard is not synonymous with ambiguity.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#228

Post by chillacy » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:24 AM UTC

akyu wrote: post #118

BEEdwards wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't prove a negative though. The burden of proof is on them.

>You can't prove a negative though. You definitely can prove a negative.

For some limited definitions of prove maybe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell%27s_teapot

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Post by titzer » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:27 AM UTC

avmich wrote: post #178

Torwald wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please clarify your date format. Is that 1st of March or the day before 4th of January? According to my European sentiment it's the 3rd of January, is that correct?

Most often I see this as an example of ISO 8061 date, https://www.iso.org/iso-8601-date-and-time-format.html . "Looking for an unambiguous calendar-and-clock format that is internationally understood? It’s time for ISO 8601." "ISO 8601 tackles this uncertainty by setting out an internationally agreed way to represent dates: YYYY-MM-DD For example, September 27, 2012 is represented as 2012-09-27."

Yes, yes, yes, please use ISO 8601! Big-endian is the only rational way to sort dates and it combines nicely with time-of-day as well.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

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Post by smattiso » Thu, Dec 31, 2020, 1:31 AM UTC

wuwuno wrote: post #218

I've been saying it was an accidental release since mid December of last year. Everyone is focused on the genetics of the virus, but honestly that doesn't really tell us anything about how it was introduced into the human population. Frankly someone could have been legitimately studying the virus which was was circulating naturally in the bat community, with zero intention of trying to weaponize the virus, but anyone…

interesting and compelling analysis. Their response was also swift. The complete isolation of Wuhan so early also makes me think they knew it was an accidental release.

To me, the most likely explanation is that one or more researchers became ill or died and WIV triggered the release protocol. This isn't the fault of PRC but this plus the treatment of Uigher, illegal fishing, IP theft etc. Can we just say F China as this point and bring our manufacturing back to the US and its allies? China has good people but their government shouldnt be allowed superpower status given their transgressions.