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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

rootclaim.com

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#191

Post by freddie_mercury »

iso1210 wrote: post #132
SpaceRaccoon wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's proven that wet markets are a breeding ground for novel viruses, then yeah, clearly they should be banned.

SARS was proven to come from wetmarkets back in 2003. They were banned by China, then unbanned later.

China has never banned wet markets. A wet market is just a place that sells fresh meat or vegetables. The butcher who supplies your favorite restaurant is a wet market. The fruit & veg stand where you buy organic heirloom tomatoes is a wet market. Every farmer's market is a wet market.

"Wet market" just distinguishes from "dry market" where durable goods like electronics are sold.

China never banned wet markets, which makes about as much sense as saying someone has "banned supermarkets". They banned the sale of certain items at wet markets.

(I live in Asia and shop at a wet market multiple times a week.)

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#192

Post by arthur2e5 »

cle wrote: post #101
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

In the US, it's because this claim, or rejection of it, is strongly tied to political identity. Because the US is highly polarized right now, once political identity comes into play, you've left the realm of rationality and entered the realm of tribalism.

In China too. With the foreign ministry spokespersons repeatedly making US bioweapon suggestions, believing otherwise is more political than just following the rest of weibo.

The media is more than happy to report on early detections out of China, and let suggestions that the vape lung (now linked to vit. E cutting agent) is COVID run free.

We left the realm of rationality long ago, when the government did a tribalism on behalf of all of us.

(Nationalism is a hell of a drug. The govt still funds crackpots to argue against Chinese people originating in africa, to call greco-roman and egyptian history faked, and don't even get me started on their insistence on 5k years.)

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#193

Post by beloch »

Caveat Emptor.

1. This isn't the product of researchers. It's the product of an algorithm that also happens to be a product that is being advertised.

From the "About Rootclaim" page:

"Proven probabilistic inference models – The model breaks down highly complex issues into small questions that are each answerable by humans, and then uses these answers to reach mathematically indisputable conclusions.

Openly crowdsourced evidence and claims – Anyone can impact an analysis by contributing evidence, rational explanations, past examples and statistics. Unlike polling or voting, a strong claim by one person can beat many widely supported weaker claims."

2. Reputable researchers publish before going to the media. Would this analysis pass peer review?

3. The company is a startup, and is looking for press.

4. Like many conspiracy theories, this claim is not easily falsifiable. No matter how transparent the Wuhan Institute of Virology tries to be, as an institution associated with the Chinese government, accusations of a coverup will be nearly impossible to conclusively refute. International trust in anything related to the Chinese government is currently very low.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#194

Post by rcoveson »

cyode wrote: post #181
rcoveson wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many ambiguous date formats, but this is not one of them. Four digits, delimiter, two digits, delimiter, two digits always means year, month, day, no matter where you are in the world[0]. Well, except in Kazakhstan, but only when writing in the Khazakh language. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Date_format_by_country

> There are many ambiguous date formats, but this is not one of them. The comment you've replied to is a counterexample to this claim.

That's true, but it takes more than one example of confusion to justify the label "ambiguous." Otherwise the label would have no meaning; it could be applied to anything that had ever caused anybody confusion, which is everything.

For example, the meaning of the word "ambiguous" is not ambiguous. If somebody were to ask what the word meant because they did not know the definition, it wouldn't make the word's meaning ambiguous. It would make that person uninformed.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#195

Post by School-Cotton »

NationalPark wrote: post #184
casefields wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is on par with election fraud. No matter if there is any, one side will downplay while the other screams it’s the tip of the iceberg. Both sides know presidential elections are a zero-sum game and will do whatever it takes to win. Again, I don’t think there was that much, let alone enough to swing the election, but we can’t even discuss any of it honestly.

But you aren't even trying to discuss it honestly! The prior probability of voter fraud is so low that it demands really incredible evidence. When you frame it like "vote fraud or not voter fraud", you're implicitly lending a whole lot of credibility to something that is, well, not the least bit credible. Also, to borrow from a completely different polarizing thread, you're making a classic motte-and-bailey argument…

> The prior probability of voter fraud is so low

Why?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#196

Post by qualifiedai »

beloch wrote: post #193

Caveat Emptor. 1. This isn't the product of researchers. It's the product of an algorithm that also happens to be a product that is being advertised. From the "About Rootclaim" page: "Proven probabilistic inference models – The model breaks down highly complex issues into small questions that are each answerable by humans, and then uses these answers to reach mathematically indisputable conclusions. Openly crowdsourc…

>>"International trust in anything related to the Chinese government is currently very low"

- there is a long track record leading to this low trust. Based on this we should place a very low prior belief in what ccp says

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#197

Post by thelittleone »

tomp wrote: post #189
thelittleone wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the strongest indicators is China's fierce opposition to an independent investigation in to the origins of the virus. Why wouldn't they want that?

I'm inclined to agree with you based on my political views, but in this case.... Chinese were pretty reserved about outsiders meddling in their internal affairs already before Covid, so this isn't necessarily indicative.

China has claimed that COVID started in anywhere but China.

Australia: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9024311/China-claim...

India: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8993667/Now-Chinese...

Italy: https://www.the-sun.com/news/1824950/china-accuses-italy-sta...

US Army: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-claims-that-the-u...

Since the common belief is that COVID originated in China, they stand to benefit from an independent inquiry that proves any of their above claims.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#199

Post by sunderr »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #147
remarkEon wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t really get why even entertaining the question is dangerous, and I can imagine some reasonable justifications for why they’d be doing that kind of research (which I believe is called “Gain of Function”). Understanding what mutations could make a virus more communicable is something that I think would benefit everyone. The dangerous questions really do come in at your last hypothetical, which obviously signals…

Because I personally don’t want to lend any credence to bat-shit crazy conspiracy theories, especially in a public forum. I’m a complete nobody, but the internet has a way of amplifying things.

I'm not convinced anyone has good evidence for this particular claim at this time, but labeling it "batshit crazy" is premature. Michael Osterholm, a respected epidemiologist, explains in his book "Deadliest Enemy" his belief ("no doubt in his mind") that the 1977 Russian flu was released from a bioweapons lab. If it happened before there isn't any reason it couldn't happen now.

EDIT: I misspoke slightly by referring to "bioweapons," so I decided to post the full quote here:

> It turned out that the Soviets were conducting vaccine studies using live, attenuated H1N1 influenza viruses in the very area where the new H1N1 was first detected. During our research, we uncovered a letter from the Soviets to the US government requesting that we share with them the 1976 Fort Dix strain of H1N1 for their vaccine studies. I have little doubt that the appearance of the 1977 H1N1 virus and its rapid global transmission in just several months was the result of a release of the virus in the course of the Soviet vaccine studies. We don’t know exactly what they were doing with the virus. What we do know is that it got out, either accidentally or on purpose, causing a local outbreak in lab workers that subsequently spread around the world. Either way, the powerful lesson here is that if an influenza virus accidentally escapes or is intentionally released, expect that it will spread around the world in short order. This is the proverbial single match being able to light a global forest fire. The possibility for a DURC research study using a potentially dangerous influenza virus should scare the hell out of everyone.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#200

Post by Barrin92 »

incrudible wrote: post #190
Barrin92 wrote: post #179

Good lord is this startup trying to draw attention to themselves with this analysis by spinning up bogus stories? Just look at this: However, Wuhan stands out for housing the Wuhan Institute of Virology, one of only a few labs engaged in gain-of-function research. How does this imply causality? Why do they not consider the simple alternative, that a location that specialises in gain-of-function research of coronaviru…

> Why do they not consider the simple alternative, that a location that specialises in gain-of-function research of coronaviruses has the highest concentration of people who are able to DETECT novel coronaviruses with a much higher likelihood? If the virus originated in a city that has no lab specializing in these viruses, how would they ever have distinguished it from pneumonia? SARS has a distinct clinical patholog…

Okay, but the exact same logic applies? Doctors who are experts in disease detection likely reside close to clusters that study said diseases and have high populations and access to modern technology.

Put it very concretely, say patient 0 was infected in a village a hundred miles away, is asymptomatic like most patients, travels to Wuhan, infects someone, that person is the officially first detected case.

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