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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

rootclaim.com

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#201

Post by incrudible »

beloch wrote: post #193

Caveat Emptor. 1. This isn't the product of researchers. It's the product of an algorithm that also happens to be a product that is being advertised. From the "About Rootclaim" page: "Proven probabilistic inference models – The model breaks down highly complex issues into small questions that are each answerable by humans, and then uses these answers to reach mathematically indisputable conclusions. Openly crowdsourc…

> Like many conspiracy theories, this claim is not easily falsifiable.

The claim that the virus originated in nature and spread through unknown intermediaries to humans in Wuhan, of all places, is equally hard to falsify.

Previous outbreak of SARS could be traced to bats in Southern China, MERS could be traced to camels.

The hypothesis that the virus escaped from a lab that hosted samples from Southern China is at least plausible.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#202

Post by _y5hn »

qualifiedai wrote: post #196
beloch wrote: post #193

Caveat Emptor. 1. This isn't the product of researchers. It's the product of an algorithm that also happens to be a product that is being advertised. From the "About Rootclaim" page: "Proven probabilistic inference models – The model breaks down highly complex issues into small questions that are each answerable by humans, and then uses these answers to reach mathematically indisputable conclusions. Openly crowdsourc…

>>"International trust in anything related to the Chinese government is currently very low" - there is a long track record leading to this low trust. Based on this we should place a very low prior belief in what ccp says

Who to trust then?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#203

Post by hanklazard »

krona wrote: post #149
addicted wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Wuhan lab being specialized in bat viruses means very little. For one thing, this is a classic example of correlation != causation. Let’s say you had a shark attack on some beach and there was a team researching shark attack located right in that area. Would you then conclude that the team engineered the shark attack? The simple reality is that the most likely reason the team studying shark attacks is located in…

The same is true here. Wuhan hosts a bat virology research institute because bat viruses are a higher risk here than in most places. Except the bat in question doesn't originate in Wuhan. I can't remember the cave exactly but the Wuhan researchers documented the capture thousands of miles from the lab, several years ago.

This post goes into great detail: https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/a-propos...

I believe I originally saw it here on HN.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#204

Post by kossTKR »

DevKoala wrote: post #100
wffurr wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That link just redirects to thelancet.com.

Actually, I don’t know about you, but now that link redirects to the FBI.GOV :/ This was the original link https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... If you Google “lancet ban on gain function” the first link is gone now.

what!? why does that link redirect to fbi.gov??

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#205

Post by qualifiedai »

_y5hn wrote: post #202
qualifiedai wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>"International trust in anything related to the Chinese government is currently very low" - there is a long track record leading to this low trust. Based on this we should place a very low prior belief in what ccp says

Who to trust then?

No one can be trusted 100%. That's the whole point of the linked analysis. You assign certain probability ranges (based on facts, past track record, research results, etc.) to various events and then mathematically infer the probability of event in question.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#206

Post by sradman »

frombody wrote: post #188
sradman wrote: post #135

The Chimera section claims: > Pangolins and bats don't usually cohabitate, making this somewhat unlikely in nature. Horseshoe bats are nocturnal animals that roost in caves during the day but sometimes practice perch feeding at night [1]: > The other strategy is known as perch feeding: Individuals roost on feeding perches and wait for prey to fly past, then fly out to capture it. Pangolins [2] and palm civets [3] are…

SARS-CoV-2 itself is not a recombinant of any sarbecoviruses detected to date, and its receptor-binding motif, important for specificity to human ACE2 receptors, appears to be an ancestral trait shared with bat viruses and not one acquired recently via recombination. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0771-4

Exactly, "detected to date". The animal surveillance programs were inadequate at the time of the outbreak and have since been defunded and shutdown altogether.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#207

Post by rjsw »

beloch wrote: post #193

Caveat Emptor. 1. This isn't the product of researchers. It's the product of an algorithm that also happens to be a product that is being advertised. From the "About Rootclaim" page: "Proven probabilistic inference models – The model breaks down highly complex issues into small questions that are each answerable by humans, and then uses these answers to reach mathematically indisputable conclusions. Openly crowdsourc…

A startup providing conspiracy theories as a service.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#208

Post by kmm »

happytoexplain wrote: post #60
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

>consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions Really? I usually see a lot of plain disagreement based on reasonable lines of thinking, but only a very small proportion of "_extremely_ strong" wording. Are you sure you're not just interpreting a multitude of similar opinions as creating a feeling of that opinion being "extremely strong"? Or that you're not just thinking of the cases where people are responding to th…

It's of course just more anecdotal evidence, but in my experience if you dare to mention the possibility of the virus being man-made on Reddit, regardless of the nuance and sources you add, you will get torn to shreds.

This is not just me being salty about reactions to my own comments, I've personally never made a comment on the origin of the covid on Reddit, as I don't feel like I have anything of value to add yet. It's just something I've witnessed over and over again.

Like the GP of this thread I've never understood why such a relatively harmless claim would be so contentious. I've always assumed it was something political that as a non-American I simply don't know the context of. It reminds me of the drama around hydroxychloroquine, where mentioning it on Reddit would get you tarred-and-feathered as a loony Trumpist, even though it seemed like a non-issue to me. Obviously HCQ doesn't really work, but believing it does never seemed to deserve such harsh treatment, which I'm again assuming has roots in a political context I don't fully understand.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#209

Post by mikhailfranco »

nmlnn wrote: post #165
DevKoala wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it would make China liable, and for the majority of individuals, their stance on China as a good actor in global matters is now linked to their American political allegiance. It is hard for many folks to reconcile both.

Not really, the Wuhan lab received funding for the studies into gain of function for bat coronaviruses from the NIH (via EcoHealth Alliance). The incentive to bury the origin (if this was the origin) would be high for the US and China both.

...and Ralph Baric (UNC) and Peter Daszak (EcoHealth Alliance) both:

  Will we ever learn the truth about China and the pandemic?
  Two inquiries are 'cloaked in secrecy'
  WHO lets Beijing vet investigators and it
  appoints British scientist with links to Wuhan
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9071191/Will-learn-...

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#210

Post by puzzlingcaptcha »

krona wrote: post #129
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help dealing with this crisis at all. Viruses used for gain of function research are selected for high rates of mutation and adaption. If we had known this from day one we would likely have made several changes to how to protect against it in the long term, especially with regards to cross-species transmission.

However, the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to be fairly slow for a RNA virus. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6
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