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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

rootclaim.com

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#71

Post by wffurr »

DevKoala wrote: post #34
chris5745 wrote: post #4

For those interested, the specific breakdown is on this page [1]. I don’t know what good will come of this discussion, unless all countries are willing to discontinue gain-of-function research if this claim is found to be true. However that’s a lot of “ifs” and there is too much opportunity to simply place blame, which won’t help anyone. [1] https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-is-the-source-of-cov...

It used to be banned here. The ban ended in 2017 https://id.elsevier.com/ACW/?return=https%3A%2F%2Fsecure.jbs...

That link just redirects to thelancet.com.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#72

Post by altarius »

stanrivers wrote: post #12

For what it is worth, they say there is an 81% probability, based on their analysis, that it was a lab leak. That is not the same thing as "claims COVID-19 originated in a lab" - so I think the title is a little misleading - which is probably why the title actually seems to be "What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)?"

Looking at the report, most of the likelihood is from a single "prior".

The whole likelihood basically hinges on the fact that the outbreak occurred in Wuhan and that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has been working for decades on enhancing coronavirus strains. That's quite strongly circumstantial but it's not evidence. Possible chimerization and furin-cleavage insertion seem a lot more interesting imo but are weighted much lower.

Based on their report [1], most of the likelihood of lab-escape (almost 50x weight) just stems from the fact that the outbreak is in Wuhan. They state that it's because of the proximity to Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and the lab's gain-of-function research - only one of 5 locations world-wide.

That single "bullet-point" re-weights zoonotic origin from 97% to 56% and lab-escape from 1.4% to 42%. Otherwise their final likelihoods would be: "zoonotic" 85.5%, "lab-escape" 8.5%, "bioweapon" 6%.

[1] https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-is-the-source-of-cov...

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#73

Post by deeviant »

DevKoala wrote: post #47
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

Because it would make China liable, and for the majority of individuals, their stance on China as a good actor in global matters is now linked to their American political allegiance. It is hard for many folks to reconcile both.

How does it make China more liable. Allowing wet markets to exist is a equal or greater threat than shoddy research labs.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#74

Post by ladyanita22 »

haunter wrote: post #38
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

I'm also curious about that. HN has very strong opinions about China especially about the Xinjiang re-education camps and/or the organ harvesting in China YET for some reason can't believe that the same country would lab make a virus like this. idk I'm just an outsider

Political ideology I guess

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#75

Post by jtbayly »

dash2 wrote: post #49
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

It would have vast consequences if this came from a lab. It would be the most deadly example of "science gone wrong" ever: 1.8 million deaths, comparable to the Holocaust, from a single disaster in a single lab. We would seriously have to rethink how we did virus biology. And probably there would be repercussions throughout the whole of science. We might e.g. start to worry much more about the risks of many kinds of…

But it doesn't matter. We know that it could have come from a lab, even if it didn't. So why shouldn't we be asking those serious questions anyway?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#76

Post by adamcstephens »

delbarital wrote: post #40
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

The liability of China is the main question here. If it was released from a lab (and I don't think it was), China is liable to this world pandemic which is a huge thing.

But liable to what end? What international jurisdiction will force China to “pay”?

America destroyed Iraq on lies, but what has that liability cost them?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#77

Post by jtbayly »

ketamine__ wrote: post #44
gandutraveler wrote: post #39

Likelihood of covid originating from lab has always been 50-50, due to the fact that China has not allowed any impartial outside investigation on this. They even imposed trade restrictions on countries like Australia that demanded. What's sad is we may never know.

That is what is behind it? I thought the cause was something less childish.

It's only childish if the virus wasn't lab originated. If it was from a Chinese lab, then the best defense is a good offense.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#78

Post by amanaplanacanal »

deeviant wrote: post #73
DevKoala wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it would make China liable, and for the majority of individuals, their stance on China as a good actor in global matters is now linked to their American political allegiance. It is hard for many folks to reconcile both.

How does it make China more liable. Allowing wet markets to exist is a equal or greater threat than shoddy research labs.

Are you suggesting that people should not be able to hunt for wild foods? Or that they shouldn’t be able to sell what they catch or kill? Or something else?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#79

Post by bearbin »

addicted wrote: post #67
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

Because there is no strong evidence. Strong claims require strong evidence.

But this (escape from a vial in a lab) isn't a strong claim, or at least no stronger than the alternative (the virus escaped from bat in a a wet-market)- why is there no outcry against the wet market hypothesis?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#80

Post by meowface »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #66
meowface wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree, I don't think it's presented as a fact. They have a detailed analysis on the page. Click the "More" links under the "Chimera" and "Furin cleavage" topics. No idea how credible that analysis is, but it seems to me like it's done in good faith.

That tweet is as misleading as possible and does present it as fact. At best this is a startup company seeking publicity so 'good faith' is to be taken with more than a grain of salt.

>Probably our most surprising finding to date: COVID-19 has likely originated in a lab. A probabilistic analysis shows the proximity to a major coronavirus lab and anomalies in the genetic code are too unlikely for SARS-CoV-2 to have developed naturally.

They're stating the facts of the results of the probabilistic analysis, not the facts of the actual situation. Their only comment about the actual situation is that it's "likely".

I can see how it could be interpreted in the way you suggest, but if you read it from the perspective of discussing the probabilistic analysis, I don't think they're intending to mislead. But, again, I also don't know how strong the analysis is. It could be that the analysis is weak, in which case I still wouldn't think the tweet is likely deliberately misleading, but simply wrong.

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