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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

rootclaim.com

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#111

Post by himinlomax »

js2 wrote: post #91
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

> evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground What are you talking about? Zoonotic origin is the source of the majority of viruses: > Approximately 60% of the known infectious diseases and 75% of the new emerging or re-emerging diseases infecting humans came from animals. SARS-CoV-2 is the latest addition to the seven coronaviruses found in humans, and experts said that all of these viruses either came…

> What are you talking about? Zoonotic origin is the source of the majority of viruses:

This makes the hypothesis very plausible as a starting point, but afaik there is no confirmed reservoir for SARS-CoV-2, the pangolin and bat hypothesis have not been confirmed.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#112

Post by ikeboy »

katmannthree wrote: post #110
eznzt wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a joke on his 'I don't like them putting chemicals in the water that turn the friggin' frogs gay!' famous sentence? Because it's true: https://www.pnas.org/content/107/10/4612

Atrazine causing feminization in frogs is an undisputed fact, but the statement as given ("they put chemicals in the water TO turn frogs gay") is absolutely not. Atrazine is used because it's a cheap and effective herbicide, frog feminization is a side effect which doesn't factor into decisions about its use.

Ah yes, technically the chemicals are being put in the water and are turning the frogs gay but you see, they only intended to put the chemicals in the water and didn't specifically intend to turn the frogs gay.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#113

Post by mschuster91 »

skinkestek wrote: post #104

One thing I wonder is: How did the UK virus suddenly get 17 mutations at once if it's not a new engineered release by someone? I'm not a biologist, but that part had me wondering. Any biologists here who want to explain for a layman?

Not a biologist, this is not a biological question per se - all viruses and bacteria mutate over time during replication. It's a question of statistics rather... When you have 100 infected individuals and a virus that mutates in 1% of infected people (note: this is a random number, no idea what the actual mutation rate of coronavirus is), you'll end up with one mutated version. When you have 100k of infected people, you'll end up with 1k mutations that are spreading out and (essentially) self-selecting. And when you hit 1M of infected people... it's 100k mutations.

That is why it would have been important to keep infection rates down until there's a vaccine - because it is more than likely now that there's a strain of coronavirus somewhere that has a different spike protein and so is not caught by the existing vaccines.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#114

Post by austinjp »

eznzt wrote: post #103
MattGaiser wrote: post #14

> When you see a reliable public betting challenge with real stakes, you can be very confident the claim is true at a probability that is significantly above 50% (assuming 1:1 odds are being offered). This makes the assumption that the overall stakes are even. What if Alex Jones puts up 100K that boiled frog eyes cure COVID? He could be absurdly wrong, but the additional credibility offered by this may let him sell a…

Is this a joke on his 'I don't like them putting chemicals in the water that turn the friggin' frogs gay!' famous sentence? Because it's true: https://www.pnas.org/content/107/10/4612

Eeeesh. No. "Chemical castration" does not equal "gay". Also who are "they"? And define "put".

Is it concerning that endocrine disruptors are leeching into waterways? Yes.

Is there a plot to turn frogs gay? I doubt it.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#115

Post by IanCal »

dangero wrote: post #99
jtbayly wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it doesn't matter. We know that it could have come from a lab, even if it didn't. So why shouldn't we be asking those serious questions anyway?

Yes, even if this was not developed in a lab, every government in the world is now 100% aware of the potential uses for bioweapons. We should discuss how we would deal with and detect attacks like that in the future. Furthermore, we should talk about ethical disclosure responsibilities that all countries can agree on for outbreaks going forward as well as what will happen if those rules are not followed. For example,…

Seems like a great example of why a bioweapon like this is a terrible idea.

I don't think more disclosures would have helped a lot of the countries. China locked what 10M people in January and lots of the world essentially went "huh". There were reports of welding people into their homes when UK rates were in double digits. We seem to have done little with the already very public information so what would have happened with more?

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#116

Post by TurkishPoptart »

haunter wrote: post #38
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

I'm also curious about that. HN has very strong opinions about China especially about the Xinjiang re-education camps and/or the organ harvesting in China YET for some reason can't believe that the same country would lab make a virus like this. idk I'm just an outsider

Bret Weinstein, who has a Ph.D in biology, claims it's highly likely that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was man-made, rather than naturally occurring. So it's definitely possible it was a test that went wrong (and let's be honest, the Chinese government has a less than stellar safety record).

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#117

Post by purplecats »

sargun wrote: post #102

Unfortunately, I do not have the chops to debate against this, but the political ramifications would be immense. The bet ( https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge ) requires that (a) you have $100k (b) are able to successfully debate it. I won't put $100k against this, but I'll put $10k against it, because "the truth" is worth it. I'll pool $10k into a $100k stake behind a debate team that can debate this (and…

why that date

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#118

Post by akyu »

BEEdwards wrote: post #3
delbarital wrote: post #2

Rootclaim, an Israeli startup, claims Covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 was developed in a Chinese lab and was released was released by accident. They are offering to bet $100,000 on the accuracy of our analysis. Here you can find information about the challenge: https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge Personally, I think their logic is doesn't work and I would like to see someone credible challenges them.

You can't prove a negative though. The burden of proof is on them.

>You can't prove a negative though.

You definitely can prove a negative.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#119

Post by nobodyandproud »

bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

Entertaining the question is dangerous (I don’t believe it, but for the sake of argument)...

My next question would be “why”? What would be the CCP’s motives to study and modify the virus?

Is it to test whether different changes would make the virus more/less communicable?

Is it to prevent another MERS SARS?

Is it to tailor disease for certain ethnicities? CCP doesn’t appear to have qualms about getting rid of troublesome minority populations, as long as they have some amount of deniability to rely on.

Is it to stress test global medical science and institutions?

I’ll keep an open mind in that if (and it’s a large if) there are respected scientists who present evidence of it being a lab modified virus, then the motive must be understood and fast.

Edit: I will say that China isn’t helping its case by impeding research and publishing of any studies simply trying to establish whether COVID even crossed from local (wild) bat populations; and promoting only theories that claim COVID came from elsewhere.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#120

Post by purplecats »

haunter wrote: post #38
bearbin wrote: post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

I'm also curious about that. HN has very strong opinions about China especially about the Xinjiang re-education camps and/or the organ harvesting in China YET for some reason can't believe that the same country would lab make a virus like this. idk I'm just an outsider

one is science so ration thoughts and the other is lies and bs so it’s politics
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