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Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

rootclaim.com

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Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#91
post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

> evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground

What are you talking about? Zoonotic origin is the source of the majority of viruses:

> Approximately 60% of the known infectious diseases and 75% of the new emerging or re-emerging diseases infecting humans came from animals. SARS-CoV-2 is the latest addition to the seven coronaviruses found in humans, and experts said that all of these viruses either came from bats, mice, or domestic animals.

> More so, bats are the source of the Ebola virus, rabies, Nipah ad Hendra virus infections, Marburg virus disease, and influenza A virus.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/26492/20200717/covid-1...

> An estimated 60% of known infectious diseases and up to 75% of new or emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic in origin (1,2). Globally, infectious diseases account for 15.8% of all deaths and 43.7% of deaths in low-resource countries (3,4). It is estimated that zoonoses are responsible for 2.5 billion cases of human illness and 2.7 million human deaths worldwide each year (5).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5711306/

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#92
post #38
post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

I'm also curious about that. HN has very strong opinions about China especially about the Xinjiang re-education camps and/or the organ harvesting in China YET for some reason can't believe that the same country would lab make a virus like this. idk I'm just an outsider

We can’t just entertain every complot theory

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#93
I've only read this [1] before, and its not a bad story, but I wonder how sure you can be without knowing every corona virus strain in the region, it can still be from a strain we haven't sequenced.

Also, it is more likely a something like this gets discovered in a major city vs some rural backwater, because they have more educated doctors there and more patience to detect a pattern.

[1] https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#94
post #75
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have vast consequences if this came from a lab. It would be the most deadly example of "science gone wrong" ever: 1.8 million deaths, comparable to the Holocaust, from a single disaster in a single lab. We would seriously have to rethink how we did virus biology. And probably there would be repercussions throughout the whole of science. We might e.g. start to worry much more about the risks of many kinds of…

But it doesn't matter. We know that it could have come from a lab, even if it didn't. So why shouldn't we be asking those serious questions anyway?

The origin of the virus is worth knowing. I think the far-right in the US are trying to use "covid was made in a Chinese lab" as a way to build anti-China sentiment and also to dismiss the virus' impact in a way. Their power comes from garnering votes from people who are swayed by boogie men. Keep in mind, the US ruling class is trying to start a new Cold War with China.

Someone mentioned in another comment that some on the left were tying criticism of China with racism, and I'd like to point out that those identity politics only benefit the right. I think this link is mostly coming from some of the US liberal class (financially well off, lives aren't directly affected by election outcomes, centrists, etc.) and not from The Left (socialists, left of Bernie types).

Blame a government, not its people. There is plenty of criticism to throw at China without being racist. But if anyone is claiming that blaming China is racist then they are just as misdirected as the people that use criticism of a county to be racist against its people.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#95
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because there is no strong evidence. Strong claims require strong evidence.

But this (escape from a vial in a lab) isn't a strong claim, or at least no stronger than the alternative (the virus escaped from bat in a a wet-market)- why is there no outcry against the wet market hypothesis?

As explained in the linked page under "starting point", the priors for zoonosis are much higher than lab escape. So lab escape actually is a much stronger claim which requires more evidence. The source of the numbers is under the "more >" link.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#97
post #46
post #6

They're probably receiving >$100k worth of attention by making this claim so... I'd like to see more zeroes in the wager.

Yeah, the problem with this startup is that the high-minded Bayesianism of their model is going to run up against the crass incentive to make exciting, media-friendly claims. Their track record doesn't seem that rigorous either, they just list a few (like 5) cases where evidence has later supported them: https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record

Their track record seems neither compelling nor skepticism-worthy, I think, often because a lot of their conclusions lined up with already widely accepted hypotheses (e.g. that MMR vaccines don't cause autism and that MH17 was shot down by DNR), and a lot of the controversial things naturally remain unknown.

The most interesting - where public opinion was against and Rootclaim was for, and it was later shown Rootclaim was far more likely to be right - seem to be the deaths of Barry and Honey Sherman [0] and that MH370 vanished due to pilot suicide [1].

I think where the rubber would meet the road is if they're ever shown to be correct about the Syrian chemical attacks [2], where they draw the opposite conclusion Bellingcat did, and of course about the COVID-19 origin.

If they do turn out to be right about those, that would grant them major credibility points, I think; though the conclusions there may never be known one way or another. If they are right about COVID-19, it would also make me view Bret Weinstein with a lot more credibility, since he's been advocating the likelihood of the lab leak hypothesis for a while.

[0] https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record#barry_and_h...

[1] https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record#MH_370

[2] https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_track_record#syrian_chem...

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#98
post #36

Whenever this topic comes up, the discussion seems to consist largely of _extremely_ strong opinions against the perfectly plausible hypothesis (don't forget, the evidence of zoonotic origin is equally thin on the ground). My question is, why? What does it matter whether the virus originated from a lab or from a wet market - it isn't any more dangerous if it came from a lab, nor does knowing the origin really help de…

Because there is no strong evidence. Strong claims require strong evidence.

It would seem if you have a deep understanding and look at the actual structure of COVID-19 - then there are multiple markers that it was manipulated, if you believe Yuri Deigin knows what he's talking about: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5SRrsr-Iug

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#99
post #75
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have vast consequences if this came from a lab. It would be the most deadly example of "science gone wrong" ever: 1.8 million deaths, comparable to the Holocaust, from a single disaster in a single lab. We would seriously have to rethink how we did virus biology. And probably there would be repercussions throughout the whole of science. We might e.g. start to worry much more about the risks of many kinds of…

But it doesn't matter. We know that it could have come from a lab, even if it didn't. So why shouldn't we be asking those serious questions anyway?

Yes, even if this was not developed in a lab, every government in the world is now 100% aware of the potential uses for bioweapons. We should discuss how we would deal with and detect attacks like that in the future.

Furthermore, we should talk about ethical disclosure responsibilities that all countries can agree on for outbreaks going forward as well as what will happen if those rules are not followed. For example, countries around the world should agree that if a country experiences a pandemic outbreak and they don't take certain measures to stop an international spread and disclose updates to the world, they will be liable for the extended outbreak. Allowing a virus like this to spread internationally while covering up details where now more than a million people have died is really grounds for war. Even if the virus was not created in a lab or intentional in any way, any limitation on communication and disclosure can have massive impact.

Re: Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it

#100
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It used to be banned here. The ban ended in 2017 https://id.elsevier.com/ACW/?return=https%3A%2F%2Fsecure.jbs...

That link just redirects to thelancet.com.

Actually, I don’t know about you, but now that link redirects to the FBI.GOV :/

This was the original link

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

If you Google “lancet ban on gain function” the first link is gone now.

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