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Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

reuters.com

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Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#381
post #138

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And I view the voice command thing as a thing to be avoided in most or all cases. I simply don’t want to talk to electronics. The privacy implications alone scare me away. No thanks.

> I simply don’t want to talk to electronics. The privacy implications alone scare me away. No thanks. I think you should consider the tradeoffs here. Practical safety on the road today, where I don't die because I'm fiddling with buttons, trumps theoretical unmeasurable fearmongering about vague privacy concerns. The reality is that if Tesla were to record every command I ever give the car and post them online again…

> The reality is that if Tesla were to record every command I ever give the car and post them online against my will

The way echo speakers are implemented is that the device only determines if you used the wake word and then sends it to the cloud service. However this wake word detection is sloppy and turns on more often than it should. It's filtered out on the cloud service side, but it creates a situation where extremely private moments are uploaded. For end users this means that you can't be certain when it's recording vs when it isn't....

IDK how it's implemented in cars, but the STT features I've seen require the explicit press of a button and IIRC it's inferenced locally on the car's hardware. Which is possible thanks to the car's high energy usage and price. But it might depend on implementation and it might send telemetry back to the manufacturer.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#382
post #43

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> Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. Also: insane supply-chain management chops, a skill that is more and more transferable - especially for electric cars.

Despite becoming more similar in recent years, the cell phone supply chain is still very different than the automotive supply chain. The number of parts/unit differs by an order of magnitude and so does the size and weight, not to mention manufacturing techniques and materials. These are capabilities, not so much skills, and they aren't as transferable as you may think. For instance, logistically things are very diff…

I've worked with ex Apple supply chain people, and they were very used to operating at massive scale and the leverage that came with it. This led to some some unhappy suppliers some of which walked because they felt we were being too demanding. I don't want to overgeneralize, some of the issue was likely the culture of this particular team, but I could definitely see growing pains as they move into a new vertical with suppliers they can't push around as much. There's a lot more to it than "Apple is good GSM"

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#383
post #334

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>Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment Was it really? Dozens of companies have credit cards. Walmart, Uber, Paypal, Venmo, Best Buy, Amazon...it didn't real strike me as big things happening when Apple announced their credit card.

That's because you don't have the faintest idea of how Apple differentiated their card from the competition.

How did apple differentiate their card from the competition? I don't see any reason I should prefer it to my amex.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#384

If I was an Apple shareholder (I guess I am, indirectly through Berkshire), this would piss me off. Apple is in a very good business. Cars are a terrible business. Just compare Apple’s margins to any car company. Also, it’s really hard to move into a business that is widely outside your core competency. It can be done, but the effort is huge, and I suspect the median track record is poor.

I completely agree but then Tesla came along.

Tesla isn’t really that profitable, especially relative to market cap.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#385
post #172

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Past performance is not indicative of future results etc, but you’re right, this is basically exactly what Palm CEO Ed Colligan said about the rumored iPhone a few months before it was revealed[1]: > “We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone,” he said. “PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” 1: https://daringfireball.net/2006/…

The first couple of generations of the iPod kinda sucked too. It's really hard to get everything perfect in the first generation, probably impossible. Having the agility to iterate on the design quickly so you can capitalize on the initial hype is what Apple does so well.

IPod came out before cheap flash storage. I am surprised it worked as well as it did for shoving a laptop hard drive in a music player.

Would a car be like that now? Batteries are close to too expensive, but 38k model 3 says we are close...

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#386

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Having recently sold my Tesla Model 3 I can say there is a lot to be desired with that car. The biggest lesson from Tesla is that cars are not cellphones. Having one display off to the side, without buttons, that does everything is an awful experience in a car. I hope that Apple learns that lesson. I think if they had gone first they might have made that mistake too, but now that it's been tried they can find interes…

> Having one display off to the side, without buttons, that does everything is an awful experience in a car I have to strongly disagree with this. The touchscreen is great for the vast majority of things it replaces. The only physical controls I ever miss are for temperature (which is a very minor complaint) and windshield wipers (though I would also accept auto wipers that actually work). I do think the UI smoothnes…

You can activate the wipers with one of the control sticks, at least on the model 3.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#387
post #247
post #121

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> they've really thought through the UX of a semi-self driving car Minor side note. I'm sure a lot of the experience is well-designed but I can't help but grimace every time I see that huge touch tablet instead of physical buttons on the dashboard.

That’s Ok. A lot of people thought keyboards on phones were an absolute requirement too. Like with phones, having touch screen control everything provides extraordinary flexibility in rolling out new software features and ultimately improving UX. Remember this design is supposed to lead the way into an FSD future achieved through purely software updates. Whether they succeed in automating the majority of miles driven…

Yeah I still think touch UIS absolutely suck and the best example of this is the android WiFi GUI (idk if they changed it after kitkat, that was one of the main reasons I dumped it.) Everything is modal and you can never predict the mode, multiple layers of controls are constantly popping and sliding over/under eachother and there's no tactical feedback that lets you know when you're over the control you want. Screw touch crap I want my PDA keyboard back!

In a car it's extra bad because now you have to look away from the road and position your hand in a bumpy car to adjust the temperature/radio/navigation. It's so awful in my friends cars I dread the day I have to buy a new one.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll just say that the main benefit of a Tesla, besides driving and handling really nicely is that the electronics are actually good: it’s entertainment system isn’t a hacky afterthought; also, just plugging into the supercharger and walking away makes the whole “messing with payment methods” paradigm of gas stations seem obsolete.

On the flipside, my 2012 "dumb" car with the good third-party bluetooth adapter I got last year is the end-all, be-all of car electronics for me. It can only go downhill from there. To me, car electronics should be like a Kindle is for reading. There is a period after you launch the Kindle but before you start reading where you interact with it like a smartphone or tablet. But then once you get started, the notion th…

I will say, telling my car “my ass is cold “ is a pretty fun interface.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a small time Apple shareholder and have the opposite reaction. Apple is sitting on 300 billion in cash - I expect them to do something with it. They need to move into some other market because their existing ones are tapped out. Cars are a great fit: 1. Big enough market for an investment of 10s of billions 2. Its international (quit a bit of that money is stuck overseas) 3. Making electric cars isn't too hard (s…

> Making electric cars isn't too hard (see Tesla) I don't know, I think Tesla is a good example of how difficult it is to penetrate the car market as a new company. It took them nearly 20 years to get where they are today, and it's not like that was 20 years of smooth sailing. From what I've read they came close to going under multiple times. Aren't they the first major new US car company to start up and not go under…

Tesla's worst year (2017) had them at -3.5B$ cash flow. Apple has 200B$ in cash reserves. With that kind of money they could afford to purchase an existing car company and sustain similar losses for a few decades.

Re: Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ battery tech: sources

#390

This is starting to make increasingly more sense even though Apple making a car seemed laughable a few years ago. Apple is fundamentally now a company that can move immense amounts of capital into new industries with the underlying ethos of user experience. Apple Card was perhaps a dipping of the toes moment. In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is because the tech behind it is increasingly getting commoditize…

> 'In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is' With all due respect, I would like to articulate and counter your point with some insights. Tesla as it stands today at ~$600B is priced at monopoly status - that they have 'won' the next decade in transportation and electrification. Whether you buy into that or not, consider the following: - Tesla is the first (and so far only) company that has successfully been abl…

> No other competitors have scaled (yet)

What numbers are we talking about here?

Tesla seems to be the most sold EV car to date, with more than 650k model 3s shipped so far. That's remarkable, but it's the same magnitude as the second on the list, Nissan Leaf, which has 500k shipped.

There's also more to electric than battery EVs. It was obvious from the start the transition to electric is real but that real scale will start out with hybrid electric for the first decade or two. Any manufacturer serious about scale would want to start in that end because in order to be good, models needs to be designed from the ground up. In comparison, Toyota has shifted 15M Priuses. That's scale.

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