> 'In theory, Tesla shouldn't be worth what it is'
With all due respect, I would like to articulate and counter your point with some insights.
Tesla as it stands today at ~$600B is priced at monopoly status - that they have 'won' the next decade in transportation and electrification. Whether you buy into that or not, consider the following:
- Tesla is the first (and so far only) company that has successfully been able to produce electric vehicles with positive gross margins at scale. No other competitors have scaled (yet) and EVs made from traditional automakers have been sold thus far at negative gross margins (i.e. each one that leaves the lot costs thousands or more dollars at a loss). While Tesla 'just broke out' as a stock in 2020, starting with large cash-flow generation from their factory in China - they have been working at this for well over 5 years. The real challenge for everyone making EVs is scale, and depending on how you slice it, Tesla is - really, really far ahead regarding their head start. (Model 3 was ANNOUNCED in 2016 and first cars were produced and delivered in 2017. Look at this announcement today end of 2020, and car production in 2024 - not even accounting for scale. This is really hard to do.)
- Your point about commoditized parts is valid in theory. However, as someone in the {renewables} industry who has had many first hand conversations with those buying Li-ion batteries at scale - the little talked about challenge for everyone else in automotive is 'where are you getting your batteries'? Li-ion cell manufacturers are generally broken up into Tier1, Tier2, Tier3 suppliers. From my conversations even pre-pandemic with folks - Tier 1 supplies were already allocated SEVERAL years out. Tier2 supplies are hard to acquire in large volumes as well. That leaves you with 'shitty' Tier3 supplies for which most of those cells are ending up in things like scooters and Energy Storage (not cars). And while some are good, suppliers can be tier 3 either due to small volumes or unreliability (must all be tested, and even still its questionable how many cycles you'll really get). Automakers want Tier 1. Tesla's latest event, 'Battery Day' while 'disappointing' the street and non-industry folks for not announcing some 'Million mile' or other 'groundbreaking technology' is significant because the limitation to Tesla's growth, much like others for making EVs, comes down to batteries. The factories need to be built - and for most of what optimists imagine for a rapidly changing future, many of those shovels have not hit the ground yet on the forward infrastructure. And that isn't even accounting for the fact that it takes at least 1-2 years to get a single cell factory ramped up. And we aren't even talking about the mining capacity (particularly lithium and nickel) that all of these announcements imply already exists.
And back to Tesla's valuation - there is lots of focus on their current valuations assuming they have solved self-driving. There's so much going on with Tesla as a stock (look at Tesla Semi-truck, their Energy Storage businesses for example). And the winks and nods towards launching an uber-like ridesharing service. While I am very skeptical of their ability to have self-driving 'done' in their posted timeframes, I think their value is priced that , whenever it happens - they will be first. So interpret that as you may.
When factoring in the likelihood that they will be the next apple for transportation across personal & commercial transportation for the next 1-2 decades, you can end up at 600B easily. If you are interested in seeing how, just on the driving component - Ark Invest has posted their models if you want to take a deeper read to see if you agree. [1]
And 2 cents on Apple's role & competitive advantages here: They, prior to Tesla were for a while one of the larger single consumers for Li-ion batteries (Macbook, Ipods, iPhones, etc) in electronics. Add in their expertise with battery management and longevity systems (but for systems of a smaller size) combined with their existing supplier relationships & software capabilities, if I had to bet on Apple or one of the existing automotive companies - I'd probably make my bet on Apple purely from a capabilities and competencies perspective.
[1] https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Mode...