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London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

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281–290 of 448 posts

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#281
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forgotten that quote, which was from the Blair government for those who don’t recall it. As other poster pointed out, monarchy and CoE would disagree though.

So would Blair. He is a committed Catholic.

It was said by Alistair Campbell to Blair when he started talking about (as you might guess) God.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in the liberal northwest, where we at least have a token amount of public transport, I see the bus signs alternating between their usual route number + description and "masks required". Haven't been on one to verify use by ridership, or to see what the driver's reaction to noncompliant riders is. The higher staff-to-rider ratio might help? Outdoor mask use is limited (50%?) but at least quite sparse and distant…

I don’t know where either of the London-based commenters go shopping but all staff are legally required to wear masks at shops in the U.K.

Im in Scotland, at my local coop the staff hardly ever wear masks. Twice ive seen them have conversations with people just hanging at the till who arent wearing masks eithet.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure that's completely fair. Countries vary so much that putting it down to "the government" ignores all the other factors. You're examples are all on the southern hemisphere, with mostly nice weather where people spend more time outside. General population health also has a massive effect. Here in the UK we are a nation of overweight old people, but fat-shaming is a thing so that's only going to get worse.

But those antipodean countries are all coming out of their winter. So they got through the worst of it during the coldest part of the year, with more people indoors, and only now are getting into summer.

I'm not sure about those other countries, but an Australian "winter" is very different from a British winter.

As I said - there are other factors here (many more than I mentioned) - that you can't compare countries so easily.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every store I've gone in has required them, I've heard mass transit is a lot less crowded and also requires them, and I think county rules mandate them in those cases. I've seen people without them going on outdoor walks, but that's an incredibly low-risk activity.

Try smaller stores. Gas stations, corner stores, non-chain places. I see little to no compliance with customers or shop keepers in places like that. I also saw lots of maskless partying and social drinking in November.

> I also saw lots of maskless partying and social drinking in November.

This is the bigger problem.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia is an island with a population almost half California. China welds people in their houses and forcibly enters homes and drags family to some location. I have no desire to emulate them.

I’m tired of hearing excuses. 20% of New Zealand export income[1] came from tourism, yet we closed the doors on February 1st, cancelling tourists while the season was still high. If you want to get rid of the virus, you can, but you have to suck up the costs: shut down your borders and do whatever it takes. Close down internal travel: domestic flights were virtually shutdown in NZ; Ozzie’s had other overland travel r…

> NZ is about the same size and population as Oregon, so a single state could choose to do it, if they were willing to face up to the implications of the choice.

In the US, some of the relevant choices have to be made at the Federal level.

For example, Oregon does not have authority to close state borders to travellers from other states or countries.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#286
post #244
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of things are "effortless tactics". If they don't work, it's just superstition. People will figure it out, and they'll stop believing you. If you have indoor mask mandates, and outside mask mandates, and shut down restaurants, and curfews, etc., and your cases are still shooting up, you're going to have a hard time getting faith in your actions. So much of what governments are doing in response to this are just…

Masks can make a significant difference when new cases per infection is near 1. Dropping it from 3 to 2 doesn’t matter has that’s still heavy exponential growth, dropping it from 0.5 to 0.25 again doesn’t matter because it’s dropping fast. However dropping from 1.05 to even 0.95 is huge.

In theory, any tiny reduction in infection rate can make the decisive difference when the number of new infections from each existing infection is close enough to one. In practice, this is extremely unlikely to work in the real world because in reality, this is not some universal constant that is fixed at a particular value everywhere by some physical law - it varies from place to place, from job to job, from community to community, and the ones where it's below 1 will end up representing an exponentially smaller fraction of cases compared to the ones where it's above 1 meaning that the overall average won't stay below 1 for long.

Treating R, the number of infections from each case, as though it was the same everywhere is just a way of simplifying the model, but the map is not the territory and we need to be a lot more careful about whether our simplifying assumptions change the overall behaviour of the system being modelled than we have been.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#287
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. Here in deepest Republican middle America mask wearing by _staff_ in supermarkets is universal. Customers around 90% if you count "nose-slingers" as non compliant. Pretty much nobody just swanning around with no mask these days. Costco has heavy mask enforcement -- they will hunt down and eject anyone with their nose out. Where masks are not worn here is in smaller family owned businesses. Some have notices requ…

> Since this is the US, we have no public transport What do you mean you have no public transport? Is it cancelled because of covid?

Public transport doesn't really exist in the US, outside of major cities. In non-urban areas, if there's a bus at all, it'll be like one token bus route that takes a roundabout path to nowhere in particular and comes once every 3 hours.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#288
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a nice phrase. In my group we called it “dick-nosing” - iirc it came about due to: 1) you wouldn’t (shouldn’t?) go around with your dick hanging out of your trousers, so why would you do the same with your nose and your mask 2) you’re a dick if you do this

A decent amount of it is unintentional I suspect. Subconcious fiddling, poor feeling / awareness of slipping masks... a gentle reminder that "your mask has slipped a bit" can do wonders.

Similarly, a gentle reminder when one's dick accidentally slips out of one's trousers is also appreciated.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#289
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a nice phrase. In my group we called it “dick-nosing” - iirc it came about due to: 1) you wouldn’t (shouldn’t?) go around with your dick hanging out of your trousers, so why would you do the same with your nose and your mask 2) you’re a dick if you do this

A decent amount of it is unintentional I suspect. Subconcious fiddling, poor feeling / awareness of slipping masks... a gentle reminder that "your mask has slipped a bit" can do wonders.

Some responses to that will be (in the spirit of) coughing in the speaker's face.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#290
post #244
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of things are "effortless tactics". If they don't work, it's just superstition. People will figure it out, and they'll stop believing you. If you have indoor mask mandates, and outside mask mandates, and shut down restaurants, and curfews, etc., and your cases are still shooting up, you're going to have a hard time getting faith in your actions. So much of what governments are doing in response to this are just…

Masks can make a significant difference when new cases per infection is near 1. Dropping it from 3 to 2 doesn’t matter has that’s still heavy exponential growth, dropping it from 0.5 to 0.25 again doesn’t matter because it’s dropping fast. However dropping from 1.05 to even 0.95 is huge.

Nothing I wrote was an argument about masks. I linked to the one RCT on masks (as PPE) done in 2020, to illustrate that it's possible to do high-quality studies of these kinds of interventions, and underline the point that politicians are mostly just guessing, and people can see this.

You're grinding an axe here, but it has little to do with what I wrote.

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