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London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

bloomberg.com

241–250 of 448 posts

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#241

As has been pointed out in an earlier article about the "new strain"[1]: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous." That there are new strains of COVID-19 has been covered over, and over, and over, and over again on the This Week in Virology podcast[2] (which usually has 4 to 6 virologists on it every week discussing COVID-19 news), and they've always had the s…

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Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. Here in deepest Republican middle America mask wearing by _staff_ in supermarkets is universal. Customers around 90% if you count "nose-slingers" as non compliant. Pretty much nobody just swanning around with no mask these days. Costco has heavy mask enforcement -- they will hunt down and eject anyone with their nose out. Where masks are not worn here is in smaller family owned businesses. Some have notices requ…

"nose slingers"

That’s a nice phrase. In my group we called it “dick-nosing” - iirc it came about due to:

1) you wouldn’t (shouldn’t?) go around with your dick hanging out of your trousers, so why would you do the same with your nose and your mask

2) you’re a dick if you do this

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the argument is that masks are an essentially effortless tactic, and if people can't even bother to put them on and the government doesn't seem to care very much, then what hope is there for more effective measures? I don't live in the UK, just explaining how I read this comment.

> I think the argument is that masks are an essentially effortless tactic Masks are effortless, but there is also a lot of reason to believe they are not nearly as effective as was sold to people in the early summer. At some point we get into "just wear a crucifix to ward off the Devil" territory of superstition. Masks are obviously helpful at preventing transmission of some illnesses, but I've seen enough evidence t…

> there is also a lot of reason to believe they are not nearly as effective as was sold to people in the early summer.

Mayeb you can post some (preferably peer-reviewed) literature links that show "a lot of reason" to believe this.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#244
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the argument is that masks are an essentially effortless tactic, and if people can't even bother to put them on and the government doesn't seem to care very much, then what hope is there for more effective measures? I don't live in the UK, just explaining how I read this comment.

Lots of things are "effortless tactics". If they don't work, it's just superstition. People will figure it out, and they'll stop believing you. If you have indoor mask mandates, and outside mask mandates, and shut down restaurants, and curfews, etc., and your cases are still shooting up, you're going to have a hard time getting faith in your actions. So much of what governments are doing in response to this are just…

Masks can make a significant difference when new cases per infection is near 1. Dropping it from 3 to 2 doesn’t matter has that’s still heavy exponential growth, dropping it from 0.5 to 0.25 again doesn’t matter because it’s dropping fast. However dropping from 1.05 to even 0.95 is huge.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#245

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

It is so fascinating how some cultures are just ready for different environments on this planet. Authoritative collectivist monocultures are doing great with this pandemic, and that is practically the only combination that has a grip on things.

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Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#246

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

See table 2 in the most recent weekly national COVID-19 surveillance report [1], which breaks down where outbreaks have happened. In London, there were 220 outbreaks last week:

  Educational             108
  Hospital                 42
  Care home                38
  Workplace                20
  Other                    10
  Prisons                   1
  Food outlet/restaurant    1
This is outbreaks, not infections - i don't think we have statistics on that, so this is the best indication we have of where the virus is spreading.

Schools, hospitals, care homes, and workplaces account for the huge majority of spread. There's no empirical reason to think either tube trains or supermarkets are the problem.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-co...

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#247

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

Wow. Here in deepest Republican middle America mask wearing by _staff_ in supermarkets is universal. Customers around 90% if you count "nose-slingers" as non compliant. Pretty much nobody just swanning around with no mask these days. Costco has heavy mask enforcement -- they will hunt down and eject anyone with their nose out. Where masks are not worn here is in smaller family owned businesses. Some have notices requ…

It surprises people to hear this, but mask compliance in the US is better than most of all of Europe. People still get the virus though, because it’s almost never spread through community but rather face-to-face unmasked indoor contact, which is something people will never give up.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only the UK had the same level of government as Melbourne and Singapore and Japan and South Korea and New Zealand and all the other places that did that...

I'm not sure that's completely fair. Countries vary so much that putting it down to "the government" ignores all the other factors. You're examples are all on the southern hemisphere, with mostly nice weather where people spend more time outside. General population health also has a massive effect. Here in the UK we are a nation of overweight old people, but fat-shaming is a thing so that's only going to get worse.

But those antipodean countries are all coming out of their winter. So they got through the worst of it during the coldest part of the year, with more people indoors, and only now are getting into summer.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#249
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your timing is out. Melbourne started their lockdown in winter. Everyone obeyed it. It was strongly enforced [1, 2]. They beat coronavirus. And now they can enjoy their summer. I live in London. At one point in the summer, our covid rates were lower than Melbourne's. But the UK's messaging was confused and contradictory ("eat out to help out", test and trace was shambolic, rules were not enforced). So no one is the l…

But numbers seem to be up again, this article is speaking of another lockdown: https://t.co/2S9b4HfUhg

from that link:

>The Avalon cluster has grown to 38, with 21 out of yesterday's 23 cases linked to it and another two still under investigation.

It isn't fair and might not even be entirely honest to describe this to a (mostly US) audience with a phrase like "numbers seem to be up again".

The trigger for Australia to go back into lockdown would be considered a giant fat ignorable nothingburger in almost every part of the US.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#250
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aggressive contact tracing works when the disease is at low levels.

Contract tracing wasn't very effective. What worked in Melbourne was that 8 months of house arrest for everyone living in the city... I'm all for managing the virus spread but if the policies are a piece of meat, in the UK the policies are uncooked in Melbourne they were burnt.

> What worked in Melbourne was that 8 months of house arrest for everyone living in the city...

The .au epidemiologists I've heard on NPR have made it clear that what worked in Melbourne was everything they did, including a lockdown and including contact tracing.

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