311–320 of 339 posts
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Totally disagree about the last part. The more pain we suffer now, the longer the lesson will last.
That's not how psychology of pain works. I don't need to hold my hand in a fire to know not to touch fire again. Giving someone pain/suffering to teach them a lesson is just abuse.
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Didn't nz had strict lockdown? Also from the article: However, Stats NZ national accounts manager Paul Pascoe said the effects of Covid-19 on different industries had varied “and for some industries these may persist for some time”. The rebound was not enough to make up for the lost activity during the lockdown period, with GDP in the 12 months ended on September 30 down 2.2 per cent on the prior year.
Just last night on the news they announced we were actually out of recession. The bounce back has been pretty good. Tourism is still fairly impacted. Most everything else feels pretty normal. The lockdowns were worth it IMO. Especially now we see it ravaging the rest of the world becoming more and more severe. That just feels totally foreign to me since we only experienced a very mild outbreak initially, followed by…
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From what I've heard from one of the trials, they used a meningitis vaccine that actually does hurt. (Its side effects are known but minor.) That was hearsay, though, and I don't have access to the internal protocol.
No, the trial procedure is publicly available. They used a saline solution as the placebo.
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What are you taking about? Sweden reported that this November was the deadliest in the last 100 years since the Spanish flu in 1918. Compared to Norway, Sweden has 20x more deaths from covid (Sweden 8000 vs Norway 400 deaths) and Sweden has only 2x population (10M vs 5M). And Norway has a better GDP than Sweden despite stricter lockdown policies.
Number of death for 2020 are not significantly different than previous year: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-... yes it said the dec 2020 data is only up to dec 11 but its unlikely that the number its going to be substantially increase with half month to go. another stats: death per million for 2020 is not much different compared to five year average: https://legionsletters.com/mortality#S…
In your link, if you assume the death rate for the remainder of the year will remain static and calculate the end of year total (it’s roughly adding 5%) you get a number that looks like it spikes, but not hugely.
The below show a clear excess and a long tail after the spike in deaths.
https://www.efta.int/Publications/news/COVID-19-Excess-Morta...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1112-0
https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/advance-article/doi/10.1093/...
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Just last night on the news they announced we were actually out of recession. The bounce back has been pretty good. Tourism is still fairly impacted. Most everything else feels pretty normal. The lockdowns were worth it IMO. Especially now we see it ravaging the rest of the world becoming more and more severe. That just feels totally foreign to me since we only experienced a very mild outbreak initially, followed by…
I disagree but I still respect your choice, at very least you acknowledge that in the end lockdown or not lockdown is subjective preference.
The results in NZ are only subjective if you pull some elaborate contortions, NZ has done well.
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I disagree but I still respect your choice, at very least you acknowledge that in the end lockdown or not lockdown is subjective preference.
Can you explain your preference for no-lockdown? NZ is covid free, the economy is rebounding fast and we have had very few deaths and (relative to others) short lockdowns. Unemployment is considerably less than expected. Christmas is shaping up to be normal. The results in NZ are only subjective if you pull some elaborate contortions, NZ has done well.
My preference is simply based on cost/benefit analysis.
I'm not opposed of covid free at all, as long as whatever method you choose doesn't cause problem that outweight the risk.
Here is some example that is not a lockdown:
Increasing health care capacity
Developing better treatment
Use more accurate test
Sweeden, florida has done very well too without lockdown. Although there is still possibility that their politician succumb to pressure and enact lockdown in the future.
Downside of lockdown: unemployment, bankruptcy, mental health issue, delayed treatment of other illness, kids can't attend in person school, etc.
You can say that all of these is not big deal. I still respect you while I disagree with you, after all its subjective preference.
>elaborate contortions
Please don't use these words just because we have different value.
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Number of death for 2020 are not significantly different than previous year: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-... yes it said the dec 2020 data is only up to dec 11 but its unlikely that the number its going to be substantially increase with half month to go. another stats: death per million for 2020 is not much different compared to five year average: https://legionsletters.com/mortality#S…
Searching about I see data like yours and ones like those I include below, which show an excess. Why these differ, I don’t understand. In your link, if you assume the death rate for the remainder of the year will remain static and calculate the end of year total (it’s roughly adding 5%) you get a number that looks like it spikes, but not hugely. The below show a clear excess and a long tail after the spike in deaths.…
One of the recurring things with conspiracy theorists is that they aren't in the least interested in fact checking. They're engaged in a search only for reassurance that they're correct, if you give conflicting data they keep searching but if any source will agree with them it must be right.
You probably shouldn't add only 5% based on the remaining days. Deaths stats are frequently preliminary for weeks or even a few months as reporting itself may be delayed (in particular right now if you're quarantined and a sick person passes peacefully regardless of cause what's the point of breaking quarantine to do paperwork more quickly? They aren't any more or less dead if you do the December 1st death paperwork on December 15th)
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Number of death for 2020 are not significantly different than previous year: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-... yes it said the dec 2020 data is only up to dec 11 but its unlikely that the number its going to be substantially increase with half month to go. another stats: death per million for 2020 is not much different compared to five year average: https://legionsletters.com/mortality#S…
Searching about I see data like yours and ones like those I include below, which show an excess. Why these differ, I don’t understand. In your link, if you assume the death rate for the remainder of the year will remain static and calculate the end of year total (it’s roughly adding 5%) you get a number that looks like it spikes, but not hugely. The below show a clear excess and a long tail after the spike in deaths.…
Also keep in mind that the excess death may or may not be due to covid alone.
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Can you explain your preference for no-lockdown? NZ is covid free, the economy is rebounding fast and we have had very few deaths and (relative to others) short lockdowns. Unemployment is considerably less than expected. Christmas is shaping up to be normal. The results in NZ are only subjective if you pull some elaborate contortions, NZ has done well.
Few months lockdown is not short at all. Even then they still not allowing international visitor. My preference is simply based on cost/benefit analysis. I'm not opposed of covid free at all, as long as whatever method you choose doesn't cause problem that outweight the risk. Here is some example that is not a lockdown: Increasing health care capacity Developing better treatment Use more accurate test Sweeden, florid…
You list as a downside of New Zealand's approach unemployment. Scaled up, New Zealand would have about 600k unemployed people. But Florida actually has 650k. So that seems like instead of avoid unemployment, an economy devastated by pandemic but unwilling to lockdown has shrunk anyway.
So so far your cost is twenty thousand extra friends and relatives dead, and your "benefit" is fifty thousand extra unemployed.
Did you actually perform a cost/benefit analysis? I don't think you did.
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Few months lockdown is not short at all. Even then they still not allowing international visitor. My preference is simply based on cost/benefit analysis. I'm not opposed of covid free at all, as long as whatever method you choose doesn't cause problem that outweight the risk. Here is some example that is not a lockdown: Increasing health care capacity Developing better treatment Use more accurate test Sweeden, florid…
You give Florida as an example. If we scaled up New Zealand's population to Florida's their total COVID-19 fatalities would be about 100. But Florida's policy approach has killed over 20 thousand people already, and shows no sign of stopping. You list as a downside of New Zealand's approach unemployment. Scaled up, New Zealand would have about 600k unemployed people. But Florida actually has 650k. So that seems like…
Keep in mind that the 20000 death number is highly inflated because it include death with covid not just due to covid. People who happen to be covid positive during the death is included in the number.
Most importantly with the current death number, i didn't say florida government handling it perfectly but I much much rather to live in this place if I have choice.
If you think its a horrible way to live then only thing i can say: to each their own.
>and shows no sign of stopping
as more and more the virus spread, more people develop natural immunity
as times go the treatment method improve
and then there is vaccine coming
>But Florida actually has 650k.
Keep in mind that unemployment number is not all solely caused by lockdown
But for sure some unemployment is caused by lockdown due to simple logic: if you don't allow business to open due to lockdown, the worker wouldn't have job.
My simple cost-benefit analysis:
The risk/cost of covid :
less than 1% death rate and mostly skewed to older population
The lockdown risk/cost:
Some unemployment, some bankruptcy, some mental health issue, some delayed treatment of other illness, kids can't attend in person school, etc
At least for me The lockdown risk/cost is much more than the risk/cost of covid
>So so far your cost is twenty thousand extra friends and relatives dead, and your "benefit" is fifty thousand extra unemployed.
More accurate example would be: 1 people I know dead due to covid, benefit : life continue as normal for the rest of people. Pretty damn worth it to me.