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London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

bloomberg.com

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Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#61

Post by andylynch »

lefrenchy wrote: post #53
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is always said “if only we were more competent/oppressive/empathetic people - we’d have done fine” instead of perhaps wondering whether much of the mitigation efforts and their implementation are a fraught and possibly even net-negative exercise.

It’s not like no nation in the world has succeeded at containing this virus. Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand. We have the solutions, we just refuse to do what it takes to solve it. Western nations are taking half measures with poor enforcement, and blaming individuals for failures that should be attributed to institutions.

Aussie and I think most impressively China too.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#62

Post by DyslexicAtheist »

friendlybus wrote: post #42
k0stas wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but there is no evidence that these mutations Parroting NN Taleb: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Haven't we learned from coronavirus that we need to use the precautionary principle in the face of new information that is not fully understood. I don't know where you are from, but I locally heard a string of "there is no evidence of" starting in about January of 2019. There was no evidence that the vi…

Parroting Christopher Hitchens: what is presented without proof can be dismissed without proof Mutations that have a real impact on the RNA of the virus are incredibly rare. Most random mutations and errors replicating don't produce any meaningful change in the virus and you have to get very unlucky for a deadly mutation to happen. We should stick to scientific rationalism even if it has limits. There has been too mu…

> But noo, we have to have a boogeyman to build a network of cultural changes. This particular mechanism of hijacking a natural disaster for control is embarrassingly transparent.

It might be a side-effect in many local politics right now (never let a good crisis to waste), and many of them act incompetent (or maybe they're always incompetent but now we see it clearer when they're in the spotlight), but I don't think that was the point GP was making. It also assumes a conspiracy of actors that want to change the world by "building a network of cultural changes..." (Occam's razor)

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#63

Post by orbifold »

tzs wrote: post #7
orbifold wrote: post #2

At some point natural selection should run its course. Without countermeasures a virus looses lethality over time, these countermeasures select for virus strains which transmit even under extreme counter measures easily. Basically the opposite of what one would hope for.

> Without countermeasures a virus looses lethality over time, these countermeasures select for virus strains which transmit even under extreme counter measures easily. How do you explain smallpox, which has remained highly lethal for a very long time, during much of which we didn't really have countermeasures available?

Here is a good summary of what experts (which I am not) think: https://www.asbmb.org/asbmb-today/science/112920/will-the-co.... Regarding the smallpox virus (as per the article): It is a very durable virus, compared to a flu like virus, that means it will have a different reproductive strategy.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#64

Post by oxfordmale »

spuz wrote: post #55
oxfordmale wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently the new strain is not scary enough to enforce the travel ban in and out of London by law. At the moment the travel ban is advisory only. Make up your own mind.

I thought tier restriction breaches could be punished by fixed penalties? Many have received such penalties.

Based on the wording by Boris Johnson the travel ban is advisory. He uses the word should and not must when referring to the travel ban: "People should not enter or leave tier 4 areas, and tier 4 residents must not stay overnight away from home"

Travel ban is advisory, overnight stay is banned by law.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#65

Post by orbifold »

chrisbrandow wrote: post #17
tzs wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Without countermeasures a virus looses lethality over time, these countermeasures select for virus strains which transmit even under extreme counter measures easily. How do you explain smallpox, which has remained highly lethal for a very long time, during much of which we didn't really have countermeasures available?

The naive explanation is that its mutation rate is low. Also the evolving to be less lethal is very much a shorthand, and my impression is that it is a description made specifically to influenza, though it’s not entirely limited to that virus.

Yes it was meant as shorthand, also I'm not an expert, but I worry that applying evolutionary pressure on the virus in the way it is done right now might actually produce undesirable results.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#66

Post by root_axis »

k0stas wrote: post #30
pmoriarty wrote: post #9

As has been pointed out in an earlier article about the "new strain"[1]: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous." That there are new strains of COVID-19 has been covered over, and over, and over, and over again on the This Week in Virology podcast[2] (which usually has 4 to 6 virologists on it every week discussing COVID-19 news), and they've always had the s…

> but there is no evidence that these mutations Parroting NN Taleb: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Haven't we learned from coronavirus that we need to use the precautionary principle in the face of new information that is not fully understood. I don't know where you are from, but I locally heard a string of "there is no evidence of" starting in about January of 2019. There was no evidence that the vi…

> I am starting to think as soon as someone asserts "there is no evidence" for something related to the coronavirus, it is a foregone conclusion.

I know that this is a joke, but it does rhetorically undercut your main point a bit. Hindsight is 2020 and resources are limited, if you let speculation without evidence rule the day you'll be drowning in potential problems, most of which will never materialize.

Nobody is saying "just ignore the new strains", they're saying "there is no reason to panic about new strains given the evidence", yes the evidence could change but that can be true of anything; you might wake up tomorrow to find out that new evidence suggests cell phone use increases risk of dementia, but there is no good reason to go around living your life like this might actually be true.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#67

Post by iamben »

LatteLazy wrote: post #59

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

Exactly my experiences in London. Crazy isn't it? I just don't think people even believe it's real. Half the people with a mask on TFL wear them over their chin or with their nose out anyway.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#68

Post by spuz »

tux1968 wrote: post #44
albertgoeswoof wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK government has stated that there is no evidence the vaccine will not be effective against this strain. And from the bmj: The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. Over time, as more mutations occur, t…

That's not very reassuring, why is the new strain causing any problems at all if it behaves exactly like the existing strain? And if they haven't actually done any trials or testing, then they haven't really looked for any evidence. If they haven't looked for any, it seems rather too convenient to use the lack of evidence as a reason for hope that the current crop of vaccines provides any protection at all.

> why is the new strain causing any problems at all if it behaves exactly like the existing strain?

If it's true that the new strain is 70% more transmissible then that means more people will get sick before we can reach immunity thanks to a vaccine, hospitals will be overwhelmed sooner and more people will die.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#70

Post by qz2 »

LatteLazy wrote: post #59

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced. 2 cases in particular stand out to me: Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to w…

I think the problem is that people don’t want to enforce it because 1 in 50 people you try this on are likely to go batshit insane almost instantly. No one wants to deal with that.

At the end of the day this whole thing is dependent on the weakest link and there are a lot of weak links in society.

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