London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain • Hacker News Board

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#31

Post by callamdelaney » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

matthewmacleod wrote: post #27

mellosouls wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree; I'm not somebody who would have voted for him, but he's had some really tough decisions to make, and whether or not he's made the right call or dragged his heels at times, he's clearly been prepared to upend his own ideological leanings when needed and I respect him and the government for that.

I am baffled that somebody could observe the actions of the UK government and come to this conclusion. They seem to have been determined to do the worst possible thing to the very last moment, then abruptly about-face when that position was unsustainable.

Yes, the policy is essentially dictated by people crying about the government not removing everybody else’s freedom, meanwhile they’re free to self isolate as much as they like.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#32

Post by dvfjsdhgfv » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:31 PM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #21

hartator wrote: post #20

Shouldn’t new strains be more contagious but less deadly?

Why "should" they be?

Well, if the "aim" of the virus (what is ours, btw?) is to replicate as much as possible, the best "strategy" would be to be highly contagious and remain dormant for as long as possible; fatality would be an obstacle rather than advantage. There is just one problem with this approach: as far as we can tell viruses aren't intelligent and they don't think.

On the other hand, if you consider the possibility that viruses might be a tool used by someone else (God, aliens, evil scientists hired by bad governments), fatality becomes an important, if not the defining aspect of the tool.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#33

Post by nicoburns » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

AaronFriel wrote: post #23

tobylane wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Three days ago he said it would be inhumane to cancel Christmas. Today he said the data from the last 72 hours forced a change. Johnson is an oaf, but covid has kept him fairly serious. His waffling bumbling act was dropped.

He thought it was however perfectly humane to cancel all of the other religious holidays, and though that doesn't speak to his bumbling act, it speaks volumes about his character.

Most of the UK is secular. Christmas has cultural significance (and everyone gets time off work), not just religious.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#34

Post by sideshowb » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

One has to wonder to what extent the new strain is really responsible for this, versus being a convenient excuse for the government's failure to manage the normal variant.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#35

Post by dvfjsdhgfv » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:34 PM UTC

eternalban wrote: post #24

Someone1234 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why "should" they be?

Natural selection. Deadlier strains reduce life span of hosts that transmit the disease.

You mean the natural selection of hosts, not viruses. Why should one kind of organism "care" about the natural selection of another?

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#36

Post by ta8645 » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:35 PM UTC

Do we have any reason at all to trust that any of the vaccines currently being rolled out deal with this new strain? There was surely no way to include testing for this in any of the trials. Doesn't this at least raise the spectre that the vaccines will all be for not and we'll still be faced with all the same issues that already exist.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#37

Post by nicoburns » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:35 PM UTC

matthewmacleod wrote: post #25

pmoriarty wrote: post #9

As has been pointed out in an earlier article about the "new strain"[1]: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous." That there are new strains of COVID-19 has been covered over, and over, and over, and over again on the This Week in Virology podcast[2] (which usually has 4 to 6 virologists on it every week discussing COVID-19 news), and they've always had the s…

While this is true generally, please bear in mind that the numbers in the UK do seem to be somewhat concerning. I don’t have actual values yet, but from the announcements from the various UK governments it seems to be the case that the case rate in London has almost tripled in the past 18 days, and 60% of current cases are this new strain. The response in the UK has been pretty rapid and strict, and this has been jus…

Indeed. And there is also the evidence from Kent (where it seems likely this new strain originated), where case numbers were increasing despite Tier 3 restrictions (all pubs and restaurants closed, etc)

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#38

Post by nicoburns » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:37 PM UTC

dvfjsdhgfv wrote: post #32

Someone1234 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why "should" they be?

Well, if the "aim" of the virus (what is ours, btw?) is to replicate as much as possible, the best "strategy" would be to be highly contagious and remain dormant for as long as possible; fatality would be an obstacle rather than advantage. There is just one problem with this approach: as far as we can tell viruses aren't intelligent and they don't think. On the other hand, if you consider the possibility that viruses…

I think it's important to remember that viral mutations are random. Therefore to a large extent there is no purpose. What there is are traits that make a given mutated version of the virus more likely to spread and thus come to our attention.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#39

Post by jamienicol » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

callamdelaney wrote: post #31

matthewmacleod wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am baffled that somebody could observe the actions of the UK government and come to this conclusion. They seem to have been determined to do the worst possible thing to the very last moment, then abruptly about-face when that position was unsustainable.

Yes, the policy is essentially dictated by people crying about the government not removing everybody else’s freedom, meanwhile they’re free to self isolate as much as they like.

Don't you have a protest to be at?

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#40

Post by albertgoeswoof » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

ta8645 wrote: post #36

Do we have any reason at all to trust that any of the vaccines currently being rolled out deal with this new strain? There was surely no way to include testing for this in any of the trials. Doesn't this at least raise the spectre that the vaccines will all be for not and we'll still be faced with all the same issues that already exist.

The UK government has stated that there is no evidence the vaccine will not be effective against this strain. And from the bmj:

The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.

Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.

Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”