London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain • Hacker News Board

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#51

Post by oxfordmale » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:53 PM UTC

chimprich wrote: post #15

pmoriarty wrote: post #9

As has been pointed out in an earlier article about the "new strain"[1]: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous." That there are new strains of COVID-19 has been covered over, and over, and over, and over again on the This Week in Virology podcast[2] (which usually has 4 to 6 virologists on it every week discussing COVID-19 news), and they've always had the s…

That's old news, unfortunately. The latest data suggest that it is significantly more transmissible. "Up to" 70% more, according to the UK government's press conference. This is big. Luckily, it doesn't seem to be more dangerous in terms of hospital admissions. Statement from Chris Whitty, UK's chief medical advisor to the government: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-from-chief-medi...

NERVTAG's early analysis suggests the new variant could increase R by 0.4 or greater. Although there is considerable uncertainty, it may be up to 70% more transmissible than the old variant.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#52

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:54 PM UTC

k0stas wrote: post #30

pmoriarty wrote: post #9

As has been pointed out in an earlier article about the "new strain"[1]: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous." That there are new strains of COVID-19 has been covered over, and over, and over, and over again on the This Week in Virology podcast[2] (which usually has 4 to 6 virologists on it every week discussing COVID-19 news), and they've always had the s…

> but there is no evidence that these mutations Parroting NN Taleb: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Haven't we learned from coronavirus that we need to use the precautionary principle in the face of new information that is not fully understood. I don't know where you are from, but I locally heard a string of "there is no evidence of" starting in about January of 2019. There was no evidence that the vi…

[deleted]

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#53

Post by lefrenchy » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:54 PM UTC

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #45

sideshowb wrote: post #34

One has to wonder to what extent the new strain is really responsible for this, versus being a convenient excuse for the government's failure to manage the normal variant.

This is always said “if only we were more competent/oppressive/empathetic people - we’d have done fine” instead of perhaps wondering whether much of the mitigation efforts and their implementation are a fraught and possibly even net-negative exercise.

It’s not like no nation in the world has succeeded at containing this virus. Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand.

We have the solutions, we just refuse to do what it takes to solve it.

Western nations are taking half measures with poor enforcement, and blaming individuals for failures that should be attributed to institutions.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#54

Post by gnusty_gnurc » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:55 PM UTC

the8472 wrote: post #46

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is always said “if only we were more competent/oppressive/empathetic people - we’d have done fine” instead of perhaps wondering whether much of the mitigation efforts and their implementation are a fraught and possibly even net-negative exercise.

We don't need to wonder, we can look at nations that succeeded in controlling the spread from the start and now are reaping the benefits.

With time the people we vaunted as enlightened don’t appear to be doing well. In fact it seems they’re vulnerable and now subject to the same seasonal trends of spread everyone else was largely powerless against.

California, Germany, Korea, Japan...

We don’t consider whether the reaction has been worse than the virus, but that’s because there’s so much political reputation, ego, and identity staked on having been “level-headed” about all this.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#55

Post by spuz » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:56 PM UTC

oxfordmale wrote: post #47

sideshowb wrote: post #34

One has to wonder to what extent the new strain is really responsible for this, versus being a convenient excuse for the government's failure to manage the normal variant.

Apparently the new strain is not scary enough to enforce the travel ban in and out of London by law. At the moment the travel ban is advisory only. Make up your own mind.

I thought tier restriction breaches could be punished by fixed penalties? Many have received such penalties.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#56

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:56 PM UTC

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #40

ta8645 wrote: post #36

Do we have any reason at all to trust that any of the vaccines currently being rolled out deal with this new strain? There was surely no way to include testing for this in any of the trials. Doesn't this at least raise the spectre that the vaccines will all be for not and we'll still be faced with all the same issues that already exist.

The UK government has stated that there is no evidence the vaccine will not be effective against this strain. And from the bmj: The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective. Over time, as more mutations occur, t…

[deleted]

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#57

Post by zaroth » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:56 PM UTC

k0stas wrote: post #30

pmoriarty wrote: post #9

As has been pointed out in an earlier article about the "new strain"[1]: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous." That there are new strains of COVID-19 has been covered over, and over, and over, and over again on the This Week in Virology podcast[2] (which usually has 4 to 6 virologists on it every week discussing COVID-19 news), and they've always had the s…

> but there is no evidence that these mutations Parroting NN Taleb: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Haven't we learned from coronavirus that we need to use the precautionary principle in the face of new information that is not fully understood. I don't know where you are from, but I locally heard a string of "there is no evidence of" starting in about January of 2019. There was no evidence that the vi…

What you’re saying boils down to, we should assume that something will happen, and therefore act to deploy our limited resources to defend against this thing, just because it isn’t theoretically impossible.

Such an approach is guaranteed to massively fail and in doing so cost a lost of money and lives. It’s bad public policy because it is financially ruinous and leads to a greater number of deaths.

Here’s the logic: We know that resources (time, focus, money) can be wasted if they are spent on things that are not effective. We also know that resources are finite. There is only so much time, so much money, and so many different things that you can try to accomplish at once. Therefore, limited resources must be deployed efficiently — towards the most effective interventions — if we want them collectively to achieve the greatest effect.

This means dangers that are scientifically exceedingly unlikely to occur should perhaps not be entirely ignored but should not be driving major policy decisions.

The issue here is not an absence of evidence. There is an abundance of evidence that coronavirus mutations are fundamentally different from influenza mutations.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#58

Post by user-the-name » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:56 PM UTC

friendlybus wrote: post #42

k0stas wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but there is no evidence that these mutations Parroting NN Taleb: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Haven't we learned from coronavirus that we need to use the precautionary principle in the face of new information that is not fully understood. I don't know where you are from, but I locally heard a string of "there is no evidence of" starting in about January of 2019. There was no evidence that the vi…

Parroting Christopher Hitchens: what is presented without proof can be dismissed without proof Mutations that have a real impact on the RNA of the virus are incredibly rare. Most random mutations and errors replicating don't produce any meaningful change in the virus and you have to get very unlucky for a deadly mutation to happen. We should stick to scientific rationalism even if it has limits. There has been too mu…

> Parroting Christopher Hitchens: what is presented without proof can be dismissed without proof

This is nonsense that assumes an antagonistic purpose to a discussion, and not actually an attempt to reach a higher understanding.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#59

Post by LatteLazy » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:59 PM UTC

I live in London. The core issue here is that the government hasn't really taken any action. There are "rules" but they are full of loopholes and totally unenforced.

2 cases in particular stand out to me:

Compliance with mask wearing on TFL is less than 50%. "Covid enforcement" officers walk around about one train in 50, and despite it being 8 months since this started, "I don't have one" is an acceptable answer to why you're not wearing a mask.

Supermarkets continue to be rammed, but staff aren't required to wear masks. Nor are they enforcing the requirement on customers beyond the door. One staff member with covid will rapidly infect a few 1000 people given how busy they are on a Saturday morning. Wtf aren't staff required to wear masks?

The attitude here is rapidly becoming "why should I bother if no one else is?". And frankly, I think the government know and encourage this. Its all but policy. Time and again we see them decline scientific advice, then act surprised when infection rates spike.

I'm especially frustrated as my best friend lives in Melbourne. Despite lockdown starting at basically the same time, and some crazy bad luck/incidents, Melbourne is back to BAU.

Re: London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain

#60

Post by iamben » Sat, Dec 19, 2020, 6:59 PM UTC

sideshowb wrote: post #34

One has to wonder to what extent the new strain is really responsible for this, versus being a convenient excuse for the government's failure to manage the normal variant.

Not quite sure what they thought would happen - lockdown in November and then unlock and open all the shops the three weeks before Christmas and expect everyone to be sensible?

Totally my experiences, but London looks like it hasn't given a shit for weeks.