Live data from Hacker News

When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

glinden.blogspot.com

391–400 of 418 posts

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#391

Perhaps part of the problem was a premature switch from exploration to exploitation? When Facebook bought Oculus for $$$$, the collaborative community which had been pushing the envelope, exploring for possibilities, rapidly died. People took it as a hint to switch modes. And eye-tracking rent seekers, already in low-volume high-cost exploitation mode, weren't then incentivized to support exploration. Gaming had doll…

Facebook has already released two mass market targeted VR headsets with moderate success. It's not console numbers yet, but then again, there's still plenty of low-hanging fruit to grab when it comes to technical improvements (and unlike early video game consoles, the market always has plenty of mature ecosystems for interactive games).

Yeah, sorry I was less than clear. The idea was that capabilities become available to us for exploration, via mass consumer and gaming products. A rather narrow and higher-latency channel. Rather than say a dynamic market of small companies and a diy community. Leaving plenty of low-hanging fruit not yet grabbed.

A less concentrated industry might have been more interested, creative, and effective, at gathering such fruit, and exploring for accessible markets. Perhaps yielding a less slow takeoff. A counter argument is that Intel's RealSense does exist to build on, and Leap Motion's hand tracker and Project NorthStar. A counter^2 argument is these are outliers, with LM's work only remaining available, because they dropped IIRC three separate acquisition attempts by Apple. Most work hasn't remained available to use and build on.

But perhaps a healthy commercial-diy blended market was never an option. Given a patent regime optimized for pharma-shaped industry. There seemed a long-term pre-concentration pattern of patent dodging via non-commercial software, and hardware "kits". Leaving many capabilities already unavailable, because a bit of commercially-motivated effort was needed, but discouraged by a too-small community market and/or associated patents.

The current concentration of effort may well get us more quickly to eventual phone-scale broad consumer adoption of XR. It has motivated the supply and R&D tech chain in a way a small market never could. But perhaps it has also contributed to a less-diverse flatter takeoff. And perhaps, if XR encounters difficulties with mass consumer adoption, it maybe have added a fragility risk of larger delays.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

Gaming is a only small part of what VR can do. Education (language learning, geography, biology, engineering...), real estate, porn, psychology, situational training (firemen), scientific visualization and collaboration, spatial painting and other artforms, social interaction, movie shots planning, etc.

It can be used for these things but is it really an improvement ?

> real estate

How often do you do that ? Once every few years ? Aren't regular 3d models / regular virtual visits enough ?

> porn

Tried it, extremely awkward at best

> psychology

?

> situational training (firemen)

You can train in your Vive for 5 years straight, nothing will prepare you to the real deal. Just like playing a racing video game doesn't make you a racer.

> scientific visualization and collaboration

It's neat but does it change anything fundamentally ?

> social interaction

Nothing will replace real world interactions, be it facebook or VR it's all a gimmicky at best

> movie shots planning

?

Sounds like a solution looking for a problem. VR isn't new at all and besides gaming it really didn't pick up speed in any other industry. If anything AR could be a "revolution", if miniaturised enough (contact lenses size).

I received a free HTC vive after participating to a conference in 2016, used it a month and it's in a drawer since then. None of what the speakers were promising happened, VR is still the thing you get out once every 6 months to show it to a friend, the wow factor lasts 30 mins.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#393

I wonder how many people, like me, tried it on a friend's equipment and found that the motion sickness is just impossible to get past. I had motion sickness when I tried the early first-person shooters, but got over it when I learned to keep the (non-moving) screen bounds in mind. That' just impossible in VR, and when the motion in my eyes doesn't match my vestibular system, wow, it's bad. Sigh... some of the games w…

I have to simultaneously agree with you (and even go further and state that the existence of 3-degree-of-freedom devices like Samsung GearVR which was cheap enough to be passed out and demo'd everywhere) really gave people terrible first experiences, both in terms of giving them low expectations in terms of motion sickness and also resolution. But the reason it's really bittersweet is you _don't_ have to get motion s…

Yup, I was fine with games like Beat Saber, and (initially!) Vader Immortal, that uses the teleport movement system... until you're put on a moving platform, or (worst) have to climb up and down... and OH YEAH that triggered it. Bad.

> It's a bit like if everyone who tried alcohol for the first time took 10 shots of vodka and then span in circles for 10 minutes straight

Okay, that made me laugh, and I think I see where you're going, but I really think it's different.

Alas, one of the first things I tried was RecRoom, which has thumb-stick navigation that was set to super-fast movement, so that was the first thing that really got me.

Where I disagree with your idea is that days later, in simple, slow, self-controlled movement (such as the ladders in Vader Immortal) it got me again.

> There are also hardware solutions...

Yeah, if someone came up with some non-drug way to take this away, I'd probably get a VR system right away (after testing it with my friend's system, of course!)

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#394

I wonder how many people, like me, tried it on a friend's equipment and found that the motion sickness is just impossible to get past. I had motion sickness when I tried the early first-person shooters, but got over it when I learned to keep the (non-moving) screen bounds in mind. That' just impossible in VR, and when the motion in my eyes doesn't match my vestibular system, wow, it's bad. Sigh... some of the games w…

Things like motion sickness and the screen-door effect are results of lower refresh-rate/resolution than what should be used for VR. It's very sad that as of right now, you're forced to choose movement freedom (e.g. Vive Wireless) OR the highest refresh rate / highest resolution (Valve Index). And don't get me started on the proliferation of low quality "mixed reality" headsets. Honest enthusiasts have no options for…

> Things like motion sickness and the screen-door effect are results of lower refresh-rate/resolution than what should be used for VR.

I disagree -- it's the same principle that makes me motion sick on boats, when I can't see the horizon for reference. It's a vestibular thing, not just a vision-system thing.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#395

I wonder how many people, like me, tried it on a friend's equipment and found that the motion sickness is just impossible to get past. I had motion sickness when I tried the early first-person shooters, but got over it when I learned to keep the (non-moving) screen bounds in mind. That' just impossible in VR, and when the motion in my eyes doesn't match my vestibular system, wow, it's bad. Sigh... some of the games w…

Motion sickness in games where you have thumbstick movement is common, but for games where your movement is only based on IRL movement, like Beat Saber, motion sickness is much more rare (and severe motion sickness almost unheard of).

That matches my experience -- I could play Beat Saber with no problems at all.

The sad thing is that it's like saying, "You can play any game on this system, as long as the game's name starts with the letters A-D. You can't play any game whose name starts with E-Z, though!" You're going to miss out on a lot of great stuff, and frankly, there's tons of non-VR games to keep me busy forever.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#396
post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago. Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

Yes it's true it's larger than books and movies, but games in the end just compete with other forms of media for customers' entertainment dollars. Unless we can come up with a use case for VR beyond gaming and fulfilling escapist fantasies. It will likely just be another contender for entertainment dollars. Smartphones on the other hand essentially made it possible to do anything a general desktop pc could do for peo…

The usecase I always envisioned was an all-in-one replacement for multi-monitor setup, TV, and essentially all visual media. I also imagined the flexibility to operate a computer in bright sunlight or while laying in bed thanks to a the goggles being sealed and replacing your vision. This is surely only a matter of the technology improving a bit. I believe a redesign of periphals suited to the ergonomics of VR would be required for my particular vision to be achieved. I suppose what I'm talking about is just a HMD but it could be optionally combined with head tracking like the implementations that exist now. I recall many years ago that HMDs where available so theyre nothing new. Why didnt they take off? Too clunky? Unpleasant somehow?

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gaming is a only small part of what VR can do. Education (language learning, geography, biology, engineering...), real estate, porn, psychology, situational training (firemen), scientific visualization and collaboration, spatial painting and other artforms, social interaction, movie shots planning, etc.

All of the things mentioned are already being done without VR headsets. People can go through their entire lives not realizing they've been stereoblind. The world seems as real to them as to anybody else. It's not obvious to me VR is such a huge game changer. Suppose we had 2 computer games. One that perfectly reproduced real world "graphics" and "gameplay", looks like a real life high resolution video. Everything is…

> All of the things mentioned are already being done without VR headsets. People can go through their entire lives not realizing they've been stereoblind.

This comments sounds like what people would've been saying of smartphones: "I've gone my while life without a smartphone, why do I need one now?"

I said the same thing about smartphones, big screen TVs, good office chairs and a few other things. You either learn from your mistakes, or you don't.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#398
Honestly Virtual Reality has only just begun. The entire Vive PC VR era was a complete false start and had no chance of ever becoming mainstream. Every time I demoed it to people who were totally floored they completely lost interest in buying it the second I told them it needed a tower PC.

Oculus Quest (just looking at the hardware) may as well by the first VR headset because it’s the first that is both feature complete with full head and hand presence and doesn’t have to be tethered to another bulky system and doesn’t cost $1000+ to get started.

First time I demoed quest to a friend he had ordered one off Amazon 2 minutes seconds after taking it off and him demoing it to his family and friends sold 4 more.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#399

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

So many comments to yours are all sceptical and saying "never" a lot. Maybe in 20 years you'll be vindicated. I'm with you.

It's surprising how much imagination people lack.

It's like people who told me "humans will never fall I'm love with an artificial human". Lo and behold, that Chinese AI has 600M users. Now the discussion have moved to " they shouldn't " and then it will change to "I want one too".

The same will happen with VR and AR.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#400

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

> The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. Ironically, by getting acquired by a giant company, Quest development was set back by that many years. The real problem isn't technology or even adoption, it's that people who work at giant companies suck at making games.

FB mostly publishes games and what that have published include some excellent games. Lone Echo is probably the mostly complete example of a AAA quality VR title for years until HL:Alyx launched.

Wouldn’t have been possible without a large enough company to bankroll it.

Post reply on HN