When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet • Hacker News Board

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#301

Post by TulliusCicero » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 1:51 AM UTC

vekker wrote: post #189

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think there are probably some narrow applications where it’s clearly better than not having it, but I’m skeptical of VR as a platform. Fitness. It is much easier to grind in a VR game for an hour than it is to grind on a treadmill for the same amount of time. I have a Quest, the games suck, but the fitness experience is paradigm changing. Beat Saber was and still is the Quest's killer app, but there are lot of si…

Fitness? The idea of puffing and sweating inside a heavy VR headset doesn't seem very alluring to me for some reason... Besides, I personally think fitness should be about reconnecting with the body and the real world, not "grinding" and distracting yourself while getting this physical thing done.

Very heavy fitness games no, but something moderate like Beat Saber is pretty great. There are ways you can deal with the sweatiness too.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#302

Post by tmsh » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 1:52 AM UTC

Part of what made the iPhone take off is that it was good UX and everyone uses their phone every day multiple times a day.

For VR to succeed at that level it needs: better UX (Quest is close but needs to be 2x resolution and content richness / latency) and ease of use needs to be 100.

I.e., it needs to replace people’s glasses and/or be as easy as turning on the tv. I.e., very lightweight. Again Quest is the closest but still I’d say 25% of the way there.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#303

Post by TulliusCicero » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 1:54 AM UTC

mncharity wrote: post #198

Perhaps part of the problem was a premature switch from exploration to exploitation? When Facebook bought Oculus for $$$$, the collaborative community which had been pushing the envelope, exploring for possibilities, rapidly died. People took it as a hint to switch modes. And eye-tracking rent seekers, already in low-volume high-cost exploitation mode, weren't then incentivized to support exploration. Gaming had doll…

Facebook has already released two mass market targeted VR headsets with moderate success. It's not console numbers yet, but then again, there's still plenty of low-hanging fruit to grab when it comes to technical improvements (and unlike early video game consoles, the market always has plenty of mature ecosystems for interactive games).

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#304

Post by Beaver117 » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 1:54 AM UTC

rainonmoon wrote: post #204

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

Given that VR requires an interface, it seems a stretch to say it's the "ultimate fulfilment" of entering another world. Before even getting to the philosophical inquiry about what would truly constitute an Us and its actual, for real entering of another world, that it's mediated by a big headset seems to put it still many iterations prior to its ultimate realisation.

I said it 10 years ago and I'll say it again, putting a screen and lenses on your face is not "virtual reality". It's just a gimmick (although fun in it's own way). The real VR revolution will not come until we have true BCIs that can hijack and isolate your vision and all attempted actions. Neuralink is on the right track but not even close to working. We'll need 50 more years maybe.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#305

Post by TulliusCicero » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 1:56 AM UTC

croes wrote: post #19

lo_fye wrote: post #3

It started to take off in October, with the release of the Oculus Quest 2, which is out of stock all over the place. It has nearly doubled Oculus' userbase on Steam in just 2.5 months despite their various other headsets having been out for years.

That's not a take off but still a niche. The Quest 2 is more likely to just replace other VR headsets.

It's a niche, but now it's a substantial niche rather than an incredibly tiny one like VR was a decade ago.

5m sales/year isn't a lot, but it's a lot more than nothing.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#306

Post by ben174 » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 1:57 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

While I agree with you, and am a HUGE fan of VR, the undeniable truth is these headsets collect dust after a week or two. Always. I've convinced a ton of my friends to buy one and they always end up with the same fate :(

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#307

Post by TulliusCicero » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:00 AM UTC

RoboTeddy wrote: post #96

I strongly suspect that VR will take off once it can pass through facial expressions, gaze, and other body language with high fidelity. At that point it will probably be substantially better than normal videoconference, and will take off extremely quickly (first for business meetings and perhaps social gatherings; then for virtual worlds)

Agreed, VR still has a ton of medium term improvements to make on a technical level, much more than, say, consoles. Going from PS4 to PS5, the SSD is a huge change, the controller is pretty nifty, but ultimately it's not that big of a change other than the faster loading times. And that's after 7 years.

Meanwhile, comparing a Quest 2 vs a 2013 headset like the Oculus Rift DK1 is like night and day. No comparison. Everything about it is a vast improvement that completely changes how you experience VR.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#308

Post by TulliusCicero » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:01 AM UTC

ColFrancis wrote: post #205

abraxas wrote: post #167

Rhythm, exercise, boxing, fencing games are second to none in VR thanks to the medium itself. They are much more compelling in VR vs jumping in front of a television set while waving a pair of Wii wands. The reason VR is struggling is the same reason that most exercise games eventually struggle. Humans are lazy and prefer sitting on their asses and click buttons with near zero muscle activity.

But how many people play wii sports? It was awesome fun, super novel, and was huge for a while there but now it's died off. It'll be interesting to see if VR does the same. One thing going for VR is that there's more than one company making stuff.

Wii Sports was always a pretty casual thing with middling motion tracking ability at best. Something like Beat Saber on a Quest is an enormous improvement in terms of how compelling it feels.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#309

Post by TulliusCicero » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:02 AM UTC

chris_st wrote: post #22

I wonder how many people, like me, tried it on a friend's equipment and found that the motion sickness is just impossible to get past. I had motion sickness when I tried the early first-person shooters, but got over it when I learned to keep the (non-moving) screen bounds in mind. That' just impossible in VR, and when the motion in my eyes doesn't match my vestibular system, wow, it's bad. Sigh... some of the games w…

Motion sickness in games where you have thumbstick movement is common, but for games where your movement is only based on IRL movement, like Beat Saber, motion sickness is much more rare (and severe motion sickness almost unheard of).

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#310

Post by swalsh » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 2:04 AM UTC

ben174 wrote: post #306

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

While I agree with you, and am a HUGE fan of VR, the undeniable truth is these headsets collect dust after a week or two. Always. I've convinced a ton of my friends to buy one and they always end up with the same fate :(

I mean, I guess it depends. I have an Hour or 2 a week to game. For the past 4 years I've spent that exclusively in VR. I recently picked up some new pancake games, but I keep going back. The VR experience is so much more enjoyable to me.