The Ballmer Days Are Over • Hacker News Board

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#131

Post by bad_user » Fri, May 13, 2011, 5:55 AM UTC

varikin wrote: post #122

lotusleaf1987 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Everyone heaps platitudes on Jobs but the reality is he has no understanding of or interest in business needs. On the other hand, you can make an argument that Ballmer has performed quite well on this front. Yeah Apple definitely doesn't need all that cash they're raking in. Move along please, point to something substantive and back it up with evidence before you arrogantly dismiss Steve Jobs. He has valid criticism…

I think the OP is right, but you are misunderstanding. Jobs understands his business, but what products does Apple put out there for businesses? Microsoft has Exchange, Active Directory, .NET/C#/MVC, MSSql, plus many more products aimed at the enterprise. Apple makes consumer products and does it will. The iPhone/pad/pod, AppleTV, laptops, and desktops. They tried the server market with XServer, but that was disconti…

     what products does Apple put out there for businesses

That's the beauty of it - they don't have to target businesses, because businesses buy their shit anyway.

     doesn't really compete against .NET

Apple doesn't have to compete against .NET - Microsoft shot itself in the foot years ago by not building a Unix and by not taking advantage of the open-source ecosystem.

You may say what you want about .NET, but go to any software or web-related conference, and you'll see more than half the room filled with Apple computers.

Apple doesn't compete with .NET because it doesn't have to.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#132

Post by amorphid » Fri, May 13, 2011, 5:56 AM UTC

ikono wrote: post #75

axiom wrote: post #6

Microsoft issues dividends. Google and Apple don't.

Microsoft has also repurchased a lot of stock over this period which should inflate the stock price. In any case, it doesn't matter that much especially given a relatively small number of years and a stagnant price per share. The general premise of Microsoft stagnating is true regardless of how you tweak the numbers.

Buying back stock increases earnings per share, not the stock price.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#133

Post by enjo » Fri, May 13, 2011, 5:56 AM UTC

brg wrote: post #57

asr wrote: post #31

I'm sorry, he lost me at comparing Microsoft stock to Apple and Google over the past 10 years. In retrospect, those are two of the most successful publicly traded tech companies of the period--not a fair comparison. Not to mention those were small companies in 2000. For Microsoft stock to have increased 1200% (as Google's did) it would have probably had to grow into some very significant portion of the world economy.…

You are correct in that perspective, but Microsoft is supposed to be the smartest kid in the class. They've said so. And taking them on their word, analysts are supposed to compare it against the other brilliant companies in the sector. Even so, look at the comparison this way. Google and Apple both created and captured new markets; Google with online advertising and Apple with mobile devices. This proves that there…

Is adcenter a failure? I have no idea what their data looks like, but I do know that bids have gotten quite competitive (much more Google like) since the Yahoo partnership.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#134

Post by amorphid » Fri, May 13, 2011, 6:00 AM UTC

thematt wrote: post #25

ghshephard wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. It never ceases to amaze me how many people fail to realize that you need to correct for dividends (One time, and otherwise) when calculating market cap.

Why should the market cap be adjusted to reflect dividends? Those have been paid out to shareholders and no longer represent assets of the company.

Simple example. A company had a market cap of $25. They have $5 in cash and decide to pay out a $5 dividend. The company now has $0 in cash and is now worth $20.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#135

Post by mrj » Fri, May 13, 2011, 6:08 AM UTC

dr_ wrote: post #71

Whereas I agree that Microsoft's performance and innovation over the past decade has been abysmal, I'm not sure it's just Ballmer to blame. It all started with the Google brain drain - and that happened while Bill Gates was very much involved at Microsoft. Once the brain drain begins, you lose talent at a rapid clip and no matter how great an idea you may have, it's very hard to execute. So then if you can't build it…

Not to mention, they got a great gift last month with PSN going down. XBOX will be picking up even more steam in the future.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#136

Post by brg » Fri, May 13, 2011, 6:11 AM UTC

enjo wrote: post #133

brg wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct in that perspective, but Microsoft is supposed to be the smartest kid in the class. They've said so. And taking them on their word, analysts are supposed to compare it against the other brilliant companies in the sector. Even so, look at the comparison this way. Google and Apple both created and captured new markets; Google with online advertising and Apple with mobile devices. This proves that there…

Is adcenter a failure? I have no idea what their data looks like, but I do know that bids have gotten quite competitive (much more Google like) since the Yahoo partnership.

As the revenue generating end of Microsoft's online services division, the popular bar chart showing quarterly losses exceeding 600M says that it is a failure. This may turn around if Bing hits its magic number in terms of market share. But one would think that the division will have to have start stemming its tide of losses if it is to be given a chance.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#137

Post by Niedar » Fri, May 13, 2011, 6:13 AM UTC

If you take into account stock split and dividends for Microsoft, the total return from 2000 until today is about 13% which is not great but much different than the misrepresentation of a 60% loss. The returns would be much higher if you had not bought in 2000 before the crash which Ballmer could have had no control over. For example if you had bought shares at the end of 2002 than your total return over that time would have been about 130%.

I'm not saying that Microsoft hasn't missed opportunities or that Ballmer shouldn't be replaced but its not quite as bad as pictured in that graph.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#138

Post by brg » Fri, May 13, 2011, 6:22 AM UTC

forensic wrote: post #92

brg wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chromebooks as they are now are not attractive. Apple's mobile platform, MacBook, IPad, IPhone, is significantly eating into MS share.

Chromebooks actually compete with Windows. Apple basically doesn't - it serves a small segment of premium users. Microsoft is still for the masses and will continue to be unless a competitor undercuts it. Which is precisely what Google is now doing.

Apple serves students very well. Take a look at current trends in laptop purchases by incoming students.

http://itc.virginia.edu/students/inventory/compare/

If these numbers are indicative of the US as a whole, 45% of new laptop purchases are OSX. IPhone, IPod touch, and IPad are selling well outside of the premium market. From these data points I still feel Apple is the main competitor to MS.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#139

Post by zachrose » Fri, May 13, 2011, 6:27 AM UTC

sunchild wrote: post #82

ryanlchan wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Microsoft has a master plan. Skype and VoIP in general have all kinds of potential synergies with current MSFT products, difficult to materialize as they may be. Remember that they just put out an incredibly powerful 3D camera called the Kinect. With Skype on Xbox, we could see the beginnings of accessible 3D teleconferencing. Even if it's just Skype, its inclusion further cements Xbox's place in a living roo…

Skype on Xbox? 3D conferencing? Setting aside the horrendous culture on Xbox Live, does anybody want "3D conferencing"? Most people don't even use Skype for video conferencing today.

I could see how 3D avatar conferencing (like Xbox Live avatars) might actually be much more appealing than video conference.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#140

Post by alexqgb » Fri, May 13, 2011, 6:32 AM UTC

wonnage wrote: post #104

bonch wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm sorry, he lost me at comparing Microsoft stock to Apple and Google over the past 10 years. In retrospect, those are two of the most successful publicly traded tech companies of the period--not a fair comparison. Apple and Google are Microsoft's biggest competitors. Is he not supposed to compare Microsoft to its direct rivals?

The graph starts around the height of the internet bubble. It's a dishonest comparison. You can't blame Ballmer for not driving the stock back up to unrealistic levels. Meanwhile, Google is basically starting from zero - of course it's going to show faster growth than the lumbering behemoth that is MS. Keep in mind that few people outside of the bank underwriting the IPO and Google employees actually got the awesome…

There's a big difference between "driving the stock back up to unrealistic levels" and totally flatlining - which is what MS has actually done. Yes, the former is ridiculous. But so is the latter.