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The Ballmer Days Are Over

brooksreview.net

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Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#71

Post by dr_ »

Whereas I agree that Microsoft's performance and innovation over the past decade has been abysmal, I'm not sure it's just Ballmer to blame.

It all started with the Google brain drain - and that happened while Bill Gates was very much involved at Microsoft. Once the brain drain begins, you lose talent at a rapid clip and no matter how great an idea you may have, it's very hard to execute.

So then if you can't build it, you buy it. The product and the talent. Hence the Skype purchase. Here MSFT is buying a business and the people who run it, granted at a hefty price, but Skype is well established around the world and I see it as a better integration with Microsoft than eBay, which never made any sense to me. No it didn't cost Apple 1 billion dollars to build Facetime - but it also didn't cause Skype 1 billion dollars to build Skype. I can't say what it's worth now but I do know that I use it a lot since it's been available on the iPhone - great when traveling abroad.

Bing is slowly making strides as a search engine, Windows 7 is selling rather well and Kinect is a huge it. And they have partnerships with Yahoo! and Facebook.

Ballmer may need to go, but I really don't think Microsoft is entering the early stages of it's finale.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#72

Post by ryanlchan »

fleitz wrote: post #2

"just for the sake of others not owning it." Perhaps this is why it's worth $8.5 billion to MSFT and not to others. It's pretty silly to say someone got a bad deal a week after they bought it. If Ballmer has some awesome plan for it that will require a year or two to implement it would behoove him to disclose this so that others could move competitively to destroy the value from such a purpose.

I think Microsoft has a master plan.

Skype and VoIP in general have all kinds of potential synergies with current MSFT products, difficult to materialize as they may be. Remember that they just put out an incredibly powerful 3D camera called the Kinect. With Skype on Xbox, we could see the beginnings of accessible 3D teleconferencing. Even if it's just Skype, its inclusion further cements Xbox's place in a living room by replacing another utility.

Some analysts are forecasting for the telepresence market to grow at ~30% annually through to 2015, with a strong driver being enterprise clients. Why not bundle Skype into Office? Microsoft Communicator already does video chat, but only with other Exchange users. Expanding the install base by 124M users might be the kick in the pants teleconference needs.

Whether or not these scenarios are achievable by MSFT is up for debate.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#73

Post by JacobIrwin »

Microsoft's strategy is much more in the 'stability' mode now (similar to Boeing). Most often, exponential growth (as seen in GOOG's chart) occurs in the first ten years of existence. From what I see, once a company is established and the rate of change for acquiring additional market share slows, their stock price tends not to climb up the charts with the same (dare I say 'speculative') uni-directional velocity.

Also, MS has had a nice streak of anti-competition battles during Ballmer's tenure. Just one data point that may be relevant to the lack of growth in MSFT share price.

Last thing, a chart showing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (post tech burst) may more accurately depict/model the normal MSFT price range under Ballmer's leadership.

Interesting blog/review for sure, thanks

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#74

Post by loso »

brown9-2 wrote: post #47

Windows Mobile 6.5 was a powerhouse of a product. Pre-2007 most U.S. buyers of smart phones chose between BlackBerry and Windows Mobile 6.5. Both were small screened devices with a hardware keyboard — with exception to the few HTC devices with stylus based touch screens. Palm was struggling at the time and Windows Mobile was the dominate player in consumer minds, BlackBerry was the beast in boardrooms. This seems off…

I spent almost a year at that time watching my girlfriend trying to decide which Windows Mobile phone she wanted. Might have been 2006 or 2007 but Windows Mobile for smart phone purchasers were very popular.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#75

Post by ikono »

axiom wrote: post #6

Microsoft issues dividends. Google and Apple don't.

Microsoft has also repurchased a lot of stock over this period which should inflate the stock price.

In any case, it doesn't matter that much especially given a relatively small number of years and a stagnant price per share. The general premise of Microsoft stagnating is true regardless of how you tweak the numbers.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#76

Post by jimbobimbo »

brg wrote: post #50
ChuckMcM wrote: post #18

So this is just shareholder activism at its finest. A lot of M$ share holders are upset at the Skype deal and with the returns on the stock since Ballmer took over. Nothing new here, just that Microsoft lead by Ballmer has underperformed the market. I keep waiting for these folks to say who they think should be running Microsoft but that doesn't come up a lot.

Inside Microsoft, many hope it will be Steven Sinofsky.

That was my initial thought too, but I think everyone will benefit if he'll stick to his own guns and keep turning products around (think Office 2007, Windows 7 and Internet Explorer 9).

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#77

Post by ikono »

j2d2j2d2 wrote: post #21
ChuckMcM wrote: post #18

So this is just shareholder activism at its finest. A lot of M$ share holders are upset at the Skype deal and with the returns on the stock since Ballmer took over. Nothing new here, just that Microsoft lead by Ballmer has underperformed the market. I keep waiting for these folks to say who they think should be running Microsoft but that doesn't come up a lot.

I'd like to see a return of Gates. Microsoft will continue being unvisionary if they bring anyone else to the table. You just can't fake the magic of the founders.

While it may be good for Microsoft, Gates isn't coming back. He's pretty much committed to his foundation at this point and I think what he's doing there is far more important than what he could do at Microsoft.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#78

Post by ahi »

thematt wrote: post #63
[deleted] wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[deleted]

The market returns should be adjusted for dividends. The market capitalization is what it is, simply a reflection of price and shares outstanding.

The contact form on investy seems to be broken so I guess I'll leave this here instead.

Just a headsup. www.investy.com works correctly. investy.com seems to be directed to the IIS7 splash page.

Re: The Ballmer Days Are Over

#80

Post by josephcooney »

brg wrote: post #50
ChuckMcM wrote: post #18

So this is just shareholder activism at its finest. A lot of M$ share holders are upset at the Skype deal and with the returns on the stock since Ballmer took over. Nothing new here, just that Microsoft lead by Ballmer has underperformed the market. I keep waiting for these folks to say who they think should be running Microsoft but that doesn't come up a lot.

Inside Microsoft, many hope it will be Steven Sinofsky.

Yeah, Sinofsky runs windows (cash cow #1) and used to run Office (cash cow #2) which still (allegedly) has a lot of loyalty to him. With these two divisions supporting him he is probably the strongest internal candidate.
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