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Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

nytimes.com

91–100 of 273 posts

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also you're unlikely to see the owner, they certainly won't be inside with you, you can leave any time, you're likely to be with others, and they can't change your location. Contrast that with an intoxicated young woman climbing alone into a stranger's car where he has a lot of control - including being able to lock the doors or take her to a remote/unfamiliar location. Even with all the checks and measures in place,…

> they certainly won't be inside with you Not true, we once stayed in Pisa, Italy, and the (absolutely messy) appartment was shared with the host and her son. It was quite awkward at times but we still enjoyed the stay

"once" :-)

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#92
post #31

Market cap now exceeds top 5 US hotel chains combined. How much can it grow from here?

Two arguments can be made. On the one hand, there are definitely more private places to be rented out then there are hotel rooms in those 5 chains. On the other hand, I'm not entirely sure that Airbnb can ever be profitable enough with all of those rentable places to justify the cost, especially since much of their stock is misused long term rental capacity that many municipalities are cracking down on now.

So yes, it is rather unlikely that Airbnb will grow enough to justify the market cap. This is tech bubble hype at it's epitome.

The best part about all of this, is that a company called PetCo recently IPO'd as well. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanverdon/2020/12/04/pets-are-...

So ya, we're probably going to get hurt real bad at some point.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#93
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that isn’t how an IPO works. just because your stock pops doesn’t mean you handed over money to “wall street” if you’ve raised the money you sought at the set IPO price. the investors who bought the IPO allocation got an immediate 100% return but that is not at the expense of the company.

Semantics. If I buy your car for half its value guaranteed, you will regret it, and you basically handed me 1/2 its value.

No one really knows what is tolerated by public markets right now. Tech stocks are in a speculative bubble caused by zero rates and a flood of money from the Fed.

It isn’t as if Airbnb can’t sell more shares at $150 now in a secondary offering if they wanted to. The IPO is just one point in time.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#94
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 60-100 staff? Sorry but that's very naïve. Think about how many core services this takes: I agree, but the engineering department could be handled with less than 50 people. Most of the work they do is linked to operation stuff and not engineering

the parent explained how it was impossible to get to that low of a number: -finance -payment -HR -management -verification of hosts / properties -scam detection and moderation -legal -dispute arbitration -programming -infrastructure -projects -building management for properties like HQ they own -customer service -etc. This represent so many people.

But they don't even have "customer service"

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#95
post #55
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many brokerages allow you to short the actual underlying, without resorting to options.

This isn't possible so soon after the IPO as very few shares are currently available for shorting

Interactive brokers currently has over 280k shares available for short selling, at a fee rate of 0.25%.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#96
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one could’ve predicted Airbnb would be bid up to $100B. Just because you’re Goldman does not mean you can predict where a share price will go on day 1. we are in a massive speculative cycle that isn’t just impacting Airbnb’s IPO but a lot of tech stocks, many up 1x-10x in a year. So to try to argue that wall street purposefully set the price too low when $50B is already high given travel hasn’t fully recovered yet…

> Just because you’re Goldman does not mean you can predict where a share price will go on day 1. The EMH doesn't apply if there wasn't a previous market price. This was an absolutely massive move, and I'm supposed to believe there was no indication of that ahead of time. You can definitely model supply and demand if you're Goldman - I'm not saying that you can predict market moves, but this wasn't a move from a prev…

I don’t really know why you’re so caught up in this.

Airbnb could take advantage of their stock price and issue more shares in a secondary offering tomorrow if they wanted to and “screw” the investors who doubled their money in a day by diluting them. It’s not like this was their one shot of raising money ever again.

There’s really nothing for Airbnb to be mad about.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#97
post #8

I hear a lot of talk surrounding their "moat" and many skeptics are questioning whether or not they will be able to maintain their competitive advantage. However, it feels like Airbnb has solved a truly hard problem: how to make people trust your service. People are using this app to go stay in random people's homes. How often do you hear people talk about being murdered in uber? I still hear it. How often do you hea…

There seem to be quite a lot of news about hidden cameras in Airbnbs though

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#98
As a great fan of airbnb having stayed 10 times in Denmark in different ones, I was suddenly burned by a fake review from a first time host ( she got into trouble with her housing association I think ). She destroyed my feedbacks "image" with made up statements in her statement.

After several appeals airbnb did not help at all.

I got so burned that I still don't quite understand whether I was unlucky or failed to reach the right person, but Ive been too taken aback to start again with a new profile.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#99
post #8

I hear a lot of talk surrounding their "moat" and many skeptics are questioning whether or not they will be able to maintain their competitive advantage. However, it feels like Airbnb has solved a truly hard problem: how to make people trust your service. People are using this app to go stay in random people's homes. How often do you hear people talk about being murdered in uber? I still hear it. How often do you hea…

I feel like this is not some great engineering feat with Airbnb and has much more to do with classism and the type of person who typically owns that beautiful vacation home you want to stay in.

> has much more to do with classism

You're right but I think that's an unfair way to put the fact that two rich people can get a remedy from each other without the law, but a rich person only gets remedies from poor people through the law.

The better comparison is Airbnb versus CouchSurfing or TrustedHouseSitters. All three use unused space in your home in exchange for something of psychological and monetary value, including some things Paul Graham said were important to Airbnb - like the psychic pleasure of having guests over.

The difference is that TrustedHouseSitters sitters and CouchSurfing surfers are disproportionately completely broke, so if they go and they break your rich person coffee machine, what are you going to do? Get money from the guest?

You'll never use THS again. Retention is 0% after the first incident. The private equity firm that owns THS isn't going to make you whole, the insurance they give has a $1,000 minimum, the requirements are onerous, etc.

When I break something in an Airbnb, I pay every time. When they fuck up the parking and I get towed, the Airbnb paid. So we both keep using the service.

Michael Sandel talked big talk about Airbnb monetized something that used to be generously gifted, but he omitted the special math of how rich people exchanging stuff with each other results in that thing being utilized 10,000% more, simply because it is sustainable in the sense of people retaining and not hitting the home button, and he never really talked about, ironically, the lack of justice when people break or steal your shit and there is simply no remedy.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#100
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was in Texas recently. I'm not going to ease up on it when mask compliance compared to SF or DC (haven't been to NYC) is measurably awful . > I’m in Miami right now and 90% of the people I’ve met are tech / finance types from NYC doing blow inside of clubs until 4am I don't even know what this means. 90% of people you've met in Miami do "blow"? What? Are you a coke dealer?

Maybe go out to a high end dinner in Miami and meet people before assuming I’m a drug dealer.

So, I can't criticize the interior of America for generally failing to distance because of some rich finance people you met at a high-end dinner and somehow know their drug habits?

Sorry, I really don't see the relevance to the original claim.

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