Market cap now exceeds top 5 US hotel chains combined. How much can it grow from here?
Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
31–40 of 273 posts
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#32I hear a lot of talk surrounding their "moat" and many skeptics are questioning whether or not they will be able to maintain their competitive advantage. However, it feels like Airbnb has solved a truly hard problem: how to make people trust your service. People are using this app to go stay in random people's homes. How often do you hear people talk about being murdered in uber? I still hear it. How often do you hea…
I feel like this is not some great engineering feat with Airbnb and has much more to do with classism and the type of person who typically owns that beautiful vacation home you want to stay in.
Also you're unlikely to see the owner, they certainly won't be inside with you, you can leave any time, you're likely to be with others, and they can't change your location.
Contrast that with an intoxicated young woman climbing alone into a stranger's car where he has a lot of control - including being able to lock the doors or take her to a remote/unfamiliar location. Even with all the checks and measures in place, assaults are not uncommon; I'm not familiar with any AirBnB type assaults (far more frequently, it's the guests victimising the owner via property damage).
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#33Talk about setting the wrong price for their stock. Looks like airbnb just handed over boatloads of money to wall street.
Not necessarily. I personally think it closed way too high yesterday . If I’m right, then they’ll avoid headlines of “Airbnb closed today at 30% below their IPO price” by setting a more long term reasonable price. No idea how much the “narrative” really matters in the public stock market, but people sure talk about it like it does. It might matter for employee satisfaction too?
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#34I hear a lot of talk surrounding their "moat" and many skeptics are questioning whether or not they will be able to maintain their competitive advantage. However, it feels like Airbnb has solved a truly hard problem: how to make people trust your service. People are using this app to go stay in random people's homes. How often do you hear people talk about being murdered in uber? I still hear it. How often do you hea…
I feel like this is not some great engineering feat with Airbnb and has much more to do with classism and the type of person who typically owns that beautiful vacation home you want to stay in.
Airbnb is not a tech company, it’s a hospitality company.
From what I’ve heard the tech is mediocre at best there. Doesn’t matter though, the brand is what people pay for and what drives hype.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#3525% of AirBnB staff was cut in 2020. Many may still be unemployed. For those who are struggling, please accept my deepest condolences at this time.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair... you can stay at an airbnb and still be completely distanced from the owner of said airbnb. Yeah, you have to travel, but for many this is also possible without any close contact.
I can't guarantee, but my bet is the majority of people vacationing in Airbnbs aren't being distant. The marginal impact on deaths now is probably lower than it was in March, but only barely.
I’ve stayed in Airbnbs many times (zero since March) and have not even once met my host in person.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#37For some reason, I just feel this price is too high for them and that it will fall in the coming 2-3 months. Then again, I think about their business model and there’s a lot to like: the don’t own any real estate and if they really wanted to, they could likely let go most of their staff and have a team of maybe 60 - 100 people run the bussiness as it mostly revolves around simply managing the app and keeping it runni…
60-100 staff? Sorry but that's very naïve. Think about how many core services this takes: -finance -payment -HR -management -verification of hosts / properties -scam detection and moderation -legal -dispute arbitration -programming -infrastructure -projects -building management for properties like HQ they own -customer service -etc. They'd be lucky to get away with a couple multiples of your guess. This isn't netflix…
> 60-100 staff? Sorry but that's very naïve. Think about how many core services this takes:
I agree, but the engineering department could be handled with less than 50 people. Most of the work they do is linked to operation stuff and not engineering
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#382x IPO strike price in first day of trading after $613M recouped stock options after the layoffs. Stock consolidation and 180 day lock up period creates a big risk for when employees sell. Lots of them probably have tens of thousands of shares, exercised them very cheaply, and will want to offload them. I'm not going to touch this stock with a 10-foot pole. I do wish I could short this stock but options aren't availa…
there is a 7 day exercise window currently in effect in which 15% of pre-tax awarded shares can be sold. early employees are able to sell, today through thursday. things look alright from here. there is another window for 25% after Q1 subject to performance. im not expecting a massive movement on the actual lockup expiration in may
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#392x IPO strike price in first day of trading after $613M recouped stock options after the layoffs. Stock consolidation and 180 day lock up period creates a big risk for when employees sell. Lots of them probably have tens of thousands of shares, exercised them very cheaply, and will want to offload them. I'm not going to touch this stock with a 10-foot pole. I do wish I could short this stock but options aren't availa…
Many brokerages allow you to short the actual underlying, without resorting to options.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Leading economists disagree with you: https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1337400042668306435 > the investors who bought the IPO allocation got an immediate 100% return but that is not at the expense of the company. Could they not have allocated at higher?
all he said was it makes the stock market look bad when some people double their money in a day. has nothing to do with whether Airbnb was screwed over by wall street. no one can predict the public market appetite in this environment. Airbnb was arguably richly valued at $50B as is and is richly valued at $100B. Setting your price too high and then crashing your stock is worse for the company due to tax implications…
They handed over boatloads of money because that is the toll that Wall Street firms exact in illiquid markets and that is how Wall Street firms make money.
I'm not saying that they were screwed over.
> all he said was it makes the stock market look bad when some people double their money in a day.
That is one part of what he says, very misleading. He describes it as an "error" that is due to a flaw in the "way Wall Street is organized" (ie. around capitalizing on IPOs). That's more than just saying the markets "look bad".