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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#591
post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read you last line, but “if it collapses we have bigger things to worry about” was essentially the same argument my father used when he advised me to invest in Lloyds bank — those shares lost 95% of their value since I bought them precisely because “something bigger to worry about” did in fact happen . Now I’m a software dev not an economist, so perhaps you know better, but I have been told that WW2 essentially ban…

You're willfully ignoring statements. Your father asked you to invest in one company's single security. The UAE, Singaporean and Norwegian wealth funds are invested in everything from real estate to stocks to bonds to private equity. If those funds were to fail, the cause of that would be because the underlying securities failed, which would imply a collapse of the global financial system. As for the managers' capabi…

> You're willfully ignoring statements.

There is no need for that kind of language.

I give the example of my father’s advice because, to repeat myself for emphasis, the global financial system did in fact go very very badly wrong (and not for the first time).

The fact that his argument was also your argument is the segue, not the point.

> it's not some dude sitting in an office managing a trillion dollars - it's a team of highly brilliant investors who either invest directly or outsource the investing to multiple megafund investor firms across multiple risk profiles

I did not wish to imply that it was merely “some dude”, and I am disappointed that you chose to interpret my words as such. After all, I would not imply that you think that Lloyds bank lost so much market cap because “some dude” was planning their business strategy.

I wish to imply that (1) things change, and (2) that a current state of competent management is not something that can be assured forever.

This implication was illustrated with one of many historical examples of nations and empires thought indefatigable at their peak which are now no more.

I also illustrated it with the example of the global financial crisis which led to Lloyds losing so much value. I believe that was caused by teams of highly brilliant investors applying a Nobel-prize winning formula.

> Also the term "The Sun never sets on the British empire" implied geographical dominance across the world, not immortal dominance. Before you guys, it was the Spanish claiming that.

I was already aware both that it was previously used by the Spanish and that one usage was geographical, however it was also used by British people in the sense of never ending dominance - https://access-socialstudies.cappelendamm.no/c316302/tekstop...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#592
post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>back in the 18th century, but we were 600 millions and lived 35 years. I'm not sure if this changes your point but many people lived to their 70s and 80s in the 18th century as they have for recorded history.

What do you mean with many people? A large part of aristocracy/bourgeoisie or most mundane people? What are good sources on that topic?

It's about all the mundane people who didn't die as babies. In earlier centuries, the life expectancy at birth (which is the metric that's about 35 years for that period) is dominated by the relatively high childhood mortality, all the many babies dying within the first days or weeks, and is very different from the expected lifespan of adults.

For example, here's a dataset on USA historical life expectancy https://www.infoplease.com/us/health-statistics/life-expecta... - if we look at the 1850 data, then the average life expectancy at birth is 38 years but that does not mean that people live until 38, as a the life expectancy for a random 20 year old man is 40 more years, so people (who didn't die in early childhood) lived (on average) to the age of 60, not 38.

There's data from Roman Empire where life expectancy was 25 years at birth, but life expectancy is average 53 years upon reaching age 25 - so the intuitive metric "how long do adults live" is twice as large as the technical life expectancy at birth.

Here's an archived resource that goes into more detail https://web.archive.org/web/20070713083310/http://www.plimot...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote is actually likely from a member of Dubai Royal Family. An interesting fact here is that the UAE will never become poor . The UAE has saved up over 1.3 million USD dollars per citizen [a]. And this is just the government’s savings. Obviously, there’s immense private wealth on top of that as well. Even if with investment returns as low as 4% per year drawn out, that would translate to $52,000 per citizen . T…

I mostly agree with this post, but have to point out that the UAE is not a unitary polity. It's a loose confederacy of seven related Sheikdoms, with a wide range of policy and level of development. Almost all of that wealth is concentrated in the sovereign wealth fund of the emirate of Abu Dhabi, because Abu Dhabi has by far the largest oil reserves. Next is Dubai, which has much less accumulated in its sovereign wea…

You’re partly right, but there are actually a fairly significant amount of lateral transfers to other emirates (through the federal budget, which is mostly funded by Abu Dhabi). Things like the electricity and water system are run federally (by FEWA - the Federal Water & Electricity Authority) in 4 northern-most emirates. Many other benefit systems are also mostly funded by Abu Dhabi, and primarily for the benefit of the citizens of other emirates — one example might being the Sheikh Zayed Housing Programme. Abu Dhabi actually does help the nationals in all the emirates.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#594
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't - but society didn't feel obligated to carry the ferriers when the car eclipsed the horse and we (again, abstract society) have generally been pretty okay with not specifically planning for those disenfranchised populations. This is brutal and it's capitalism - if you're a staunch libretarian you probably don't mind that those who didn't adapt are outed as losers but... these sorts of technological revolutio…

> "sure that the "have-nots" aren't devolving into anarchy since that causes global problems" Yeah, because we've done a great job of stewarding middle-east so far. Even with the best intentions, it's not clear this " statebuilding" is even remotely realistic

I think it's possible to supply resources to help a state become more stable. But I also think that that is almost never the actual goal due to greed.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mostly agree with this post, but have to point out that the UAE is not a unitary polity. It's a loose confederacy of seven related Sheikdoms, with a wide range of policy and level of development. Almost all of that wealth is concentrated in the sovereign wealth fund of the emirate of Abu Dhabi, because Abu Dhabi has by far the largest oil reserves. Next is Dubai, which has much less accumulated in its sovereign wea…

You’re partly right, but there are actually a fairly significant amount of lateral transfers to other emirates (through the federal budget, which is mostly funded by Abu Dhabi). Things like the electricity and water system are run federally (by FEWA - the Federal Water & Electricity Authority) in 4 northern-most emirates. Many other benefit systems are also mostly funded by Abu Dhabi, and primarily for the benefit of…

Thanks for pointing this out! I wasn't aware of that.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#596
post #217
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll add some anecdata from Australia. My neighbour had a 5kW system put on, single-phase inverter, about three years ago - for ~ A$7000. I've just put a deposit down for installation of 12kW of panels with a 10kW three-phase inverter for A$7400 Same provider, though I haven't compared breakdown of costs (I'm assuming very similar installation / labour costs).

How do you find a provider? Feel like sharing who you used and some details?

I'm not sure where you are, and what regions the vendor I'm using covers, but I did pick Beyond Solar.

This was mostly because my neighbour, an ex-power plant engineer, with much more expertise in this tech than me, had selected them three years ago, and his son had gone through a similar process a month or so ago and also chose them.

Quality of the equipment is the big factor, and I gather a lot of the significantly cheaper companies are cutting costs on the quality and/or warranty.

I was recommended https://www.solarquotes.com.au/ by several trusted sources for comparing options, though didn't end up using them.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#597
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll add some anecdata from Australia. My neighbour had a 5kW system put on, single-phase inverter, about three years ago - for ~ A$7000. I've just put a deposit down for installation of 12kW of panels with a 10kW three-phase inverter for A$7400 Same provider, though I haven't compared breakdown of costs (I'm assuming very similar installation / labour costs).

I wonder how the economics on this work. Does it make more sense to wait or does it make more sense to buy at any point since you always win?

Good question. In my case we're spending an inordinate amount on power currently, because we're using upwards of 20kW / day. Part of that is a horribly inefficient hot water system, part of it is needing an air conditioner this time of year (here in Australia).

The new system will include a smart meter changeover, which means hot water can be off-peak, and time-constrained, and air-conditioner will be used primarily during the times that we're generating power.

Combined with some other plans - adding a shade-roof over one of the existing poorly insulated structures, replacing the HWS with a heat pump, etc - I expect that we'll be close to power-positive most sunny summer days when we're on-site, and every non-cloudy day that we're not.

Payback for my neighbour was ~ 3 years, though he was more extravagant with his air conditioner because it wasn't costing him anything to put it on. I expect a similar or slightly faster payback period.

In which case - it makes more sense for me to do this immediately. Whether it would have been the case 3 years ago, I'm not so sure.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#598
post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I understand what you're saying, it is that there's little wind, not much sun and it's extremely cold in say, North Dakota, so fossil fuels are cheaper there? Seems to be about a 10 mph avg wind speed [1] and sunny about half the time in daylight hours in winter [2] [1] https://www.ndsu.edu/climate/North%20Dakota%20Data/Yearly%20... [2] http://www.bismarck.climatemps.com/sunlight.php

You'd have thought that high demand would increase fossil prices? No, they're cheap in North Dakota because of all the fracking there.

I grew up on the beach in California. North Dakota in the winter sounds like a frigid, dark, petroleum smelling hell hole to me.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I understand what you're saying, it is that there's little wind, not much sun and it's extremely cold in say, North Dakota, so fossil fuels are cheaper there? Seems to be about a 10 mph avg wind speed [1] and sunny about half the time in daylight hours in winter [2] [1] https://www.ndsu.edu/climate/North%20Dakota%20Data/Yearly%20... [2] http://www.bismarck.climatemps.com/sunlight.php

So how do you handle peak periods but it happens to only be a low wind generation day? Just tell everybody brownouts are in effect? The only reason that happens in enormous cities like LA, SF, and Austin TX is because they have way too many people drawing power. The grid can't be built faster than people can move in. In terms of electricity generation, this is why batteries are a monumental step towards making green…

I'd burn fossil fuels too huddled around the furnace in the upper midwest in the winter. To hell with the greens.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#600
post #596
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you find a provider? Feel like sharing who you used and some details?

I'm not sure where you are, and what regions the vendor I'm using covers, but I did pick Beyond Solar. This was mostly because my neighbour, an ex-power plant engineer, with much more expertise in this tech than me, had selected them three years ago, and his son had gone through a similar process a month or so ago and also chose them. Quality of the equipment is the big factor, and I gather a lot of the significantly…

Thanks!
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