Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#301

Post by AmericanChopper » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:39 AM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #212

AmericanChopper wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would us HN readers (or perhaps you just meant is Americans?) need to have a plan for what happens to KSA if oil exports drop? They have their own plan for that, which is why they’ve invested so much into diversifying their economy.

Because we live on Earth. Saudi Arabia is a strategic ally in the Middle East. We need to have a plan for the future when the geopolitical landscape shifts and incentives change. Nobody exists in a vacuum, our interests are intertwined with everyone else's.

Well I’m sure that the people of Saudi Arabia don’t care that you want to plan their future for them, because as I mentioned, it’s something they’ve already taken care of for themselves.

It’s really a rather imperialistic perspective tbh. To presume all of these countries need us to be making decisions for them, or that we would have any right to do so in the first place.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#302

Post by donw » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:42 AM UTC

chiefalchemist wrote: post #215

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Well, not just countries but whole industries/sectors are going to collapse. It's not like we're going to retrain an oil driller to be software engineer. Yes, the ecological benefits shine. But we need to prepare for the sociopolitical and socioeconomic fallout. Given how prepared we've (not) been for addressing climate change, it's difficult to imagine we'll be prepared for the unintended consequences of renewables.…

> It's not like we're going to retrain an oil driller to be software engineer.

Why not? Equipment at that scale is complicated, and requires a lot of skill and experience to operate.

Not to mention responsibility. When you screw up, people die. Very likely including you.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#303

Post by ClumsyPilot » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:44 AM UTC

ehnto wrote: post #292

klipt wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Index funds will buy at the market value, no? Is the market still overvaluing oil given knowledge of renewables?

Renewables as a utility power source won't stop our reliance on oil. Fossil fuels like coal and natural gas are on the chopping board, but oil still has considerable permeation through our lives and a very large conversion cost and social inertia to overcome yet. Plastics, shipping fuels, many manufacturing processes use oil during manufacturing but perhaps not in the final product. Vehicles are still decades away fr…

> "Container shipping switching to nuclear would be a quick change once regulations are in place for one example."

This is one of those things that will not take off without government initiative - risky, expensive to invest and develop, regulatorily difficult. The payoff is potentially massove though

Mind you the culture nees to change too, we've had quite a few ships seized by pirates or capsized because the crew was drunk

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#304

Post by lostlogin » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:46 AM UTC

an_opabinia wrote: post #270

discordance wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" - Saeed Al Maktoum

Middle-income Americans - their innumeracy, their illiteracy, their armchair-quarterbacking, their habit of seeing the Other one-dimensionally, their racism, their dollars - have always been a greater threat to Saudi Arabia and other people of the world than the price of fucking oil.

> have always been a greater threat to Saudi Arabia

It all seems to have gone pretty well for Saudi to date.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#305

Post by ClumsyPilot » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:48 AM UTC

p1mrx wrote: post #205

nordsieck wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It means that countries which rely on fossil fuels for their economy, are going to see the same kind of crushing economic decline that, say, the UK coal industry has. > What do you suppose happens when, for example, Saudi Arabia can no longer feed itself? It just peacefully and gently starves to death? First, I think you have to segregate between different kinds of fossil fuels. Coal is the worst. From what I under…

> In theory, naval propulsion is more amenable to electrification than aviation, but that'll be tricky to do economically Unless batteries get a lot lighter, ships are more likely to be powered by liquid hydrogen or ammonia, which are relatively straightforward to produce from renewable energy.

If there is one transport that doesn't care about weight, it's ships. The real problem is cost.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#306

Post by donw » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:48 AM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

People do tend to forget that we make a lot of stuff with oil: plastics, fertilizers, lubricants, etc.

I am happy to hear where I am behind the curve, but we don't yet have above-surface replacements for the whole of the petrochemical industry, outside of just synthetically producing our own light crude via thermal depolymerization.

It'll change the game to be sure, but there's a lot more going on than just burning gasoline.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#307

Post by nl » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:50 AM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #216

CountSessine wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Related question: what's the spot price for solar power at 1am? How cheap is it then?

Using lithium ion batteries, that solar would cost $81-$140/MWh, which is pretty much the same price as coal (compare the final slide to the first slide): https://www.lazard.com/perspective/lcoe2020 But batteries get cheaper every year, so check back in 2021 for even cheaper prices. Most observers expect lithium ion storage to be cheaper than natural gas within a decade. And when you amortize the nighttime storage co…

With 4500km power transmission lines currently being planned[1], the key question is "1 am where?" That's about 3-4 hours of time difference if the cable was along a line of latitude which obviously reduces the required storage time.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93ASEAN_Power_...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#308

Post by ClumsyPilot » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:53 AM UTC

munk-a wrote: post #195

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

We don't - but society didn't feel obligated to carry the ferriers when the car eclipsed the horse and we (again, abstract society) have generally been pretty okay with not specifically planning for those disenfranchised populations. This is brutal and it's capitalism - if you're a staunch libretarian you probably don't mind that those who didn't adapt are outed as losers but... these sorts of technological revolutio…

> "sure that the "have-nots" aren't devolving into anarchy since that causes global problems"

Yeah, because we've done a great job of stewarding middle-east so far.

Even with the best intentions, it's not clear this " statebuilding" is even remotely realistic

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#309

Post by hooloovoo_zoo » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:55 AM UTC

spenrose wrote: post #153

albertop wrote: post #5

Too bad that low cost is invisible for the consumers. California has one of the most, if not the most, expensive electricity in spite of years of investment in renewables.

California has high rates , like the Northeast[1], primarily because it pulls some externalities onto the bill. Red-state residents not paying for the cost of pollution doesn't eliminate the cost! But California has moderate bills due to decades of work on efficiency. (Climate helps somewhat, but there is a huge AC load in 30m-inhabitant SoCal.) [1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/

I don't agree with this externality justification. I could get a 100% renewable backed plan in Houston for 1/3 the rate I pay in San Jose.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#310

Post by etimberg » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 3:58 AM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #249

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

I think the best thing we could do if we went to pricing like that is to have a meter next to your thermostat that tells you have much you're paying for electricity right now . That would make the mental equation much less abstract and immediate, further push people towards the behaviors you mention. But on those specifics: 1) Unfortunately most workplaces don't have a place to charge your car. That should change 2)…

There are two big issues with just having residential consumers pay the spot market price.

1: not all if the costs are energy related. In fact, the cost to build and maintain the transmission and distribution systems is quite substantial. But that cost is for an average amount of energy over a number of years so it’s hard to turn that into a floating market value

2: There are socioeconomic factors that need to be resolved. Someone who works nights can’t avoid using power during high price times as it may be the only time to do chores. Or someone who works two jobs who can’t afford any fancy equipment to time shift use.