Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#541

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:27 PM UTC

CorrectHorseBat wrote: post #522

wazoox wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wood didn't give way to coal that gave way to oil. This is a terrible fallacy (albeit very commmon, even Vaclav Smil fell into it in his "Oil" book). The world currently consumes more coal than it ever did. Wood consumption is also record high. We simply stacked up energy sources. Check this page: https://ourworldindata.org/energy So far, fossil fuels still represent about 85% of our energy consumption, and about 99%…

> We had a world 100% on renewable, back in the 18th century There's nothing renewable about using wood if you're not replanting the forest.

With 600 million people it was likely filling in naturally as people shuffle about.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#542

Post by integer42 » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:28 PM UTC

manfredo wrote: post #213

integer42 wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclears not some secret unexplored concept at this point. If it were competitive it would be competing. Its costs are too high, not due to regulations due to the sheer amount of resources involved in mining, refining, and operating. Not to mention initial construction.

It's doing much better in terms of actually being used as a large portion of countries electricity generation, as I demonstrated above. But more importantly, the reality is that nuclear isn't competing against renewables it's competing against a fossil fuel grid that's supplemented by renewables. Germany, the poster child for renewables, still emits 10x the carbon dioxide per watt of electricity as France. Let me put…

Its a nice appeal to simplicity to say nuclear is just 'heating water and spinning a turbine', I could also say the sun is a very large carbon-free maintenance-free opex-free reactor in the sky and we just need to design a secondary stage of the power plant to transform the energy to electricity. And instead of pistons OR turbines, we can use a new type of machine specifically built for this purpose aka renewable energy technologies.

The reality is it doesn't matter how you word it or what you think should be simpler. Its what the economy can actually build, and including risk, buying solar panels which have no moving parts and last for decades are currently the more efficient way to add a watt to the grid.

Your "blunt" assertion where you predict the capacity of the grid to accomodate renewables and the quantity of battery storage and the feasibility of every potential upcoming storage technology probably requires a few sources to be taken seriously as well.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#543

Post by nmeofthestate » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:28 PM UTC

nmeofthestate wrote: post #539

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

We don't need batteries we just need a massive change in lifestyle including self-managed power cuts and making our houses freezing cold so they're tolerable at night when we can't run the AC. Sounds... not ideal

We used to have things called storage heaters in the UK which were electrical heaters (and so were expensive) designed to use the slightly less expensive night-time electricity to heat up big bits of concrete contained within them, which then leaked (not enough) heat during the day. They were not good at all

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#544

Post by marcosdumay » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:38 PM UTC

wazoox wrote: post #488

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Wood didn't give way to coal that gave way to oil. This is a terrible fallacy (albeit very commmon, even Vaclav Smil fell into it in his "Oil" book). The world currently consumes more coal than it ever did. Wood consumption is also record high. We simply stacked up energy sources. Check this page: https://ourworldindata.org/energy So far, fossil fuels still represent about 85% of our energy consumption, and about 99%…

Have you used any whale oil candles recently?

Energy sources do get replaced. Just not every time.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#545

Post by JoeAltmaier » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:41 PM UTC

I wonder if the Solar death rates are under-reported. Installation and maintenance has significant risks. Folks fall off roofs all the time, and usually die.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#546

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:41 PM UTC

WanderPanda wrote: post #409

mariuolo wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the UAE will never become poor But their land might become uninhabitable in a few decades.

It is already almost uninhabitable and has been for a long time. Nevertheless ~10M people live there. Technology is solving this, either the root cause or the symptoms

Air conditioning the outside is almost assuredly not sustainable.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#547

Post by marcosdumay » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:45 PM UTC

pmiller2 wrote: post #485

yazaddaruvala wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As per the article, renewables will be significantly cheaper than oil. Why would a poor country not purchase the cheaper option?

You tell me why poor countries wouldn’t invest in solar, wind, hydro, or geothermal. (Hint: you have to build the infrastructure first, and not all of these are even practical everywhere.) Hydrogen isn’t all that practical as a fuel, and biomass just puts CO2 back into the atmosphere. Can you think of a renewable source of energy that’s both attractive to poor and developing countries, and also practical? Oil is easy…

You are missong that it's the large fossil fuel plants that need long distance transmission.

Wind and solar (the ones getting cheaper) need storage, not transmission.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#548

Post by Retric » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:51 PM UTC

wazoox wrote: post #488

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

Wood didn't give way to coal that gave way to oil. This is a terrible fallacy (albeit very commmon, even Vaclav Smil fell into it in his "Oil" book). The world currently consumes more coal than it ever did. Wood consumption is also record high. We simply stacked up energy sources. Check this page: https://ourworldindata.org/energy So far, fossil fuels still represent about 85% of our energy consumption, and about 99%…

Coal use was common throughout all of recorded history. In Europe it picked up significantly in the 13th century.

As to abandoning energy sources, total amount of wood burned is actually down significantly as agriculture has dominated land usage age. In the Middle Ages for example large tracts of land where devoted to having little forests as a replenishing source of wood, various useful plant species, and wild game.

Less well known energy sources like whale oil and animal dung are also down in absolute terms.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#549

Post by mooreds » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:51 PM UTC

FooHentai wrote: post #431

wonnage wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would rate his series of books more historical fantasy than anything else.

Zeihan is Pop Geopolitics, rendering the subject about as accessible and interesting as it could ever be to a wide audience but is as divergent from the real work as you would expect from pop- anything. Most obviously, Zeihan ignites the reader's imagination of apocalyptic futures without ever explicitly predicting or detailing them. The future will far more likely turn out to be mundanely unpleasant rather than capt…

I would love recommendations for more serious/less poppy books on the same topics.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#550

Post by bagacrap » Thu, Dec 03, 2020, 2:54 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #464

hooloovoo_zoo wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't agree with this externality justification. I could get a 100% renewable backed plan in Houston for 1/3 the rate I pay in San Jose.

Does Houston have a carbon tax that prices the externalities into your electricity bill? If not then that's why fossil fuels are still cheaper. They don't have to pay for the externalities.

GP was comparing price of renewables, not fossil fuels.