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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#171

Post by [deleted] »

dsr_ wrote: post #159
rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

[deleted]

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#172

Post by _carbyau_ »

zdragnar wrote: post #96
99_00 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Germany's experience a success or failure? What is the counter to this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/09/05...

A charitable reply would be advances (real and predicted) in energy storage- I dont think anyone is deluded into thinking that wind or solar alone form a good baseline. That said, Germany's investments are clearly a failure, IF you go by the desired carbon reduction goals for 2020-2030. I also don't know anyone who genuinely believes any of those carbon goals are feasible, or that we have high odds of hitting them...…

I honestly think the goals are technically feasible. I would even go so far as to say easily so.

But ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

I put my money on the world failing horribly and plan accordingly.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#173

Post by Jedd »

sxates wrote: post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

I'll add some anecdata from Australia.

My neighbour had a 5kW system put on, single-phase inverter, about three years ago - for ~ A$7000.

I've just put a deposit down for installation of 12kW of panels with a 10kW three-phase inverter for A$7400

Same provider, though I haven't compared breakdown of costs (I'm assuming very similar installation / labour costs).

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#174

Post by willis936 »

dsr_ wrote: post #159
rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Who is going to buy a trillion dollar stake in a shrinking market?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#176

Post by qppo »

willis936 wrote: post #174
dsr_ wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Who is going to buy a trillion dollar stake in a shrinking market?

People who get left holding the bag when trading options.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#177

Post by dboreham »

willis936 wrote: post #174
dsr_ wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Who is going to buy a trillion dollar stake in a shrinking market?

People who believe mainstream media narratives?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#178

Post by munk-a »

willis936 wrote: post #174
dsr_ wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Who is going to buy a trillion dollar stake in a shrinking market?

A lot of people - this IPO has already happened.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#179

Post by mrfusion »

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now.

I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly.

Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not.

I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day and coasts through the night. Same idea for your freezer.

Heck I’d even blast my AC to ten degrees below where I want it during the day and then ride out the night.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#180

Post by bosswipe »

rossdavidh wrote: post #145

All true, but I think they're missing the real issue here. Renewables (esp. solar and wind) are, yes, dropping in cost exponentially, and this means they are currently zooming past fossil fuels in terms of affordability. There's an issue in regards to batteries, but that also seems to be on a learning curve that makes it better every year, so that won't buy fossil fuels much more time. Now, instead of rooting for tha…

A powerful Saudi Arabia has not been a force for good in the world so I don't know why I'm supposed to worry about it.
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