No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

Post by dqv » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 4:29 PM UTC

whb07 wrote: post #105

learc83 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those 2 numbers aren’t comparable. A 1% death rate with a disease as contagious as COVID means more than 50 million dead globally at some point (not everyone will get it but the majority will eventually). Near universal vaccination with a vaccine that is 95% effective at preventing severe cases means saving 47.5 million lives in that scenario. Despite the disease having a 99% survival rate. If the vaccine provides st…

That is not quite the case as the you're double counting quite a number of people. set A = The set of all people who die from covid set B = The set of people who were going to die that year from cancer, heart, age etc Nearly all of set A fits inside set B. For evidence see either CDC or even the Italian health ministry data set they even published as far back as April 2020 where the median age of death was 79 and 50%…

Post by MauranKilom » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

amurale wrote: post #103

toast0 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you get covid, there's a P(unknown) of long term harm as well. It's an unknown vs an unknown. Novel virus, novel immunization (first mRNA or maybe first widespread modified adenovirus)

You're correct about long term harm, I lumped them together. A better formula would be: P(covid death or long term harm) since my estimate is they're about the same order of magnitude, I prefer to take the devil-I-know vs. the small-scale-tested vaccine. I model the potential harm based on a similarly rushed vaccine of 1976 which caused a large increase in cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome [0]. Longer trials and phase…

Post by harambae » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #76

officialjunk wrote: post #63

note there is not a claim this vaccine prevents infection, only lessens symptoms, meaning you are still contagious. "We all expect an effective vaccine to prevent serious illness if infected. Three of the vaccine protocols—Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca—do not require that their vaccine prevent serious disease only that they prevent moderate symptoms which may be as mild as cough, or headache." "Prevention of infec…

Right, but are there any vaccines out there that protect against disease but don’t prevent transmission? I thought that’s what herd immunity was all about.

Post by iguy » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 4:31 PM UTC

seibelj wrote: post #100

iguy wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this money spent on? Is it a real cost per dose, or just a made-up number for something made in a research lab? Maybe another way to ask is: On the scale from 400k of white-shoe lawyer-hours, to 400k of custom 7nm silicon-etching, where should I mentally place this? The former isn't going to budge, the latter will cost pennies in a generation's time.

What they charge might be made up, but the costs of developing these drugs are astronomical. My wife is a cancer research scientist in immunotherapies and she can burn through tens of thousands of dollars in materials running a single experiment. And if she makes a mistake - the money is wasted!

Post by totony » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 4:32 PM UTC

sterlind wrote: post #126

totony wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>With this being the case, how does it even make sense for companies like Ticketmaster and Quantas to announce that they'll require their customers to be vaccinated? This is such a weird take imo. There is no need to vaccine non-risk people afaik. I thought the whole deal with covid is how mild it is for the general population but deadly for a subset of it.

you can't completely predict who it's going to be mild for. 14-year olds with no known underlying issues have died, 25-year olds have lost their sense of smell and taste permanently or suffer from long covid months later.