WTF Happened in 1971? (2019) • Hacker News Board

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#431

Post by vondragon » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 1:06 AM UTC

tomp wrote: post #184

bryanlarsen wrote: post #25

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

> And energy is a massive component in the price of almost everything we consume. Is it really? What would be different if energy was much cheaper? Would we have more advanced rockets or robots or phones? Better CPUs? More and cheaper housing built in dense cities? Cheaper education or medicine? More job security? Even more food? I realize that energy is an important input into some industrial processes, but I don't…

What could a neural networks exponentially larger than GPT-3 could accomplish? You could probably use it to create more efficient GPUs. And then other more efficient tools in adjacent industries. Hard to say where the virtuous cycle would end... constraints in manufacturing would evaporate as the rate of technological breakthroughs increase.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#432

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 1:45 AM UTC

[deleted]

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

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Post by mk81 » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 1:47 AM UTC

Mass immigration and sending manufacturing to lower wage countries.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#434

Post by bsder » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 1:52 AM UTC

jb775 wrote: post #388

crazygringo wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to Thomas Piketty [1], it's mainly a result of a bifurcation in education, and dramatically rising managerial compensation helped with tax cuts. I personally also think this is the main answer. In other words, all our massive productivity increases have come from people with a ton of education, and they reap all the rewards, helped with lower taxes. The median worker isn't any more educated and hasn't reape…

I think events around 1971 have nothing to do with it. 1971 is simply when the impacts become visible. If I had to guess, would assume this timetable is based around the end of WW2. 1971-1945(end of WW2)=26 years. 26 years seems like a feasible amount of time for businesses to grow to the point where business owners don't need to share profits with employees to sustain growth. It's also around the amount of time when…

You don't even have to look that far.

Places like Johnstown, PA were declining about 2% per year from 1950 to 1970.

That means that things were already going wrong long before 1971.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#435

Post by permo-w » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 2:01 AM UTC

aazaa wrote: post #107

Plenty of events to choose from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971 Highlights: - "A new stock market index called the Nasdaq Composite debuts." - "Starbucks, a major coffeehouse and outlet in worldwide, is founded in the U.S. State of Washington." - "The U.S. ends its trade embargo of China." - "President Richard Nixon declares the U.S. War on Drugs." - "Southwest Airlines, a low-cost carrier, begins its first…

economic emancipation of China + cheap flights + email + new shops selling imported coffee

Globalisation perhaps?

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#436

Post by yuhong » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 2:11 AM UTC

My favorite year is actually 1974. I really wished hyperinflation of the USD and collapse of the US government happened back then.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#437

Post by new_realist » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 2:16 AM UTC

Isn’t this the Iron Law of Wages at work?

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#438

Post by complexworld » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 3:06 AM UTC

chmod600 wrote: post #390

tankenmate wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another big mover came just after, 1973, the oil supply shock. This in turn lead to stagflation. Another thing I didn't see in that data set was the relative growth / decline of union membership; i.e. how that affected wage growth, indirect effect of negotiating power. It would also be interesting to see whether that was a leading co-factor or a following co-factor.

Unions lose a lot of power during globalization anyway. Even if they had hung on to membership, what would they do?

Organized labor can negotiate with corporations and politicians to defend the interests of their members.

The way things are now in the US wasn't inevitable.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#439

Post by jraedisch » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 3:10 AM UTC

gurpreetsatwal wrote: post #323

I might be missing something, but what's the connection between bitcoin and the gold standard?

Bitcoin could be seen as an attempt to introduce a new non-inflationary base currency.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#440

Post by jraedisch » Tue, Nov 24, 2020, 3:19 AM UTC

bpt3 wrote: post #85

beachwood23 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are correct that there is no fixed price. However, you might be assuming that the US Dollar has a fixed price too. The US Dollar is fixed at the price of the US Dollar, which is of course only a relative value. Likewise, a Bitcoin is worth what a Bitcoin is worth. The difference between the two, what the OP is pointing out above you, is that Bitcoin currency has a limited supply and so can't be devalued. Relative…

Bitcoin advocates focus on the limited supply when comparing to the USD, and forget that bitcoin also has very limited utility as a currency. I don't want to transact in something so volatile, nor something with such high transaction cost or latency.

Bitcoin is being actively developed. Maybe you would have good ideas on how to improve the things you critizise if you allowed yourself to think about them.