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WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

wtfhappenedin1971.com

311–320 of 477 posts

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#311

An unpopular opinion, but circa 1970 and many of the effects in these charts likely represents an inflection point where the US population at large left its Christian heritage.

I have a bit of a hard time tracking how, say, removing the Ten Commandments from schoolrooms changed the ratio of gains between the 1% and everybody else. Or church attendance.

But other people have made a case here that more women in the workforce was a plausible factor. They point to birth control as a key to that. But I suspect that abortion also contributed, and it was legalized in 1972.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#312

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

A better observation would be that is the start of the ascent of power of libertarian interests through their useful idiot, Richard Nixon.

All the other observations flow from that.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#313
I thought the physician : administrator ratio chart was interesting, though a bit of a non-sequitor.

It would probably make for an interesting serious analysis.

Edward Tufte showed the same trend with professor:administrator ratios in universities over the years.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#314

Why should productivity be tied to compensation? If I hire myself out to dig foundations for a living, I will be more productive if I'm provided with a backhoe versus provided with a shovel. But isn't it the business investing in productivity enhancing measures that is responsible for my increased productivity, not anything intrinsic in myself?

Because the person who hires you wants foundations dug, not just to hire a fixed amount of headcount. To an employer, the worker who knows how to run a backhoe is more valuable than the person who knows how to run a shovel.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#315

Would increases in computers and automation have anything to do with it? And have wages really gone down? As a whole, we're richer than ever. We own more possessions, have bigger houses, spend more money on luxuries, etc.

This is my bet. Computer automation probably removed more wages than it created.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#316

Was this not also the beginning of the Fed holding down interest rates? Gold is one part of it, but rates have declined fairly steadily since then.

That was 1980, with the Volcker Fed.

From at least World War II to 1980, we had cycles of recessions and recoveries. Each cycle had higher inflation (at corresponding points in the cycle). Since 1980, each cycle has lower inflation, but higher unemployment.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fairly simple explanation that for some reason I don't see a lot of is the drop in union membership density around this time period. Such a drop would decrease bargaining power and therefore decrease the rate of wage increase

Yeah, there were a lot of key things that happened but it's hard to pin what caused everything else to blow open

For sure

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#318

Amazed that the site does not call out Nixon completely abandoning the gold standard in 1971. Financial investments thusly did not need to be backed by actual assets anymore, to the point of today where the whole of money is loans against loans against loans.

I'm curious about the mechanism. It seems important, but can you elaborate on the effects?

If you are curious for the theory behind this mechanism, a good source is “what has government done to our money“ by Murray Rothbard.

It’s freely available here:

https://mises.org/library/what-has-government-done-our-money

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#319
post #18

Amazed that the site does not call out Nixon completely abandoning the gold standard in 1971. Financial investments thusly did not need to be backed by actual assets anymore, to the point of today where the whole of money is loans against loans against loans.

That theory would explain financial gains going up faster (eg the pie getting bigger, more return to capital), but not a stall in wages for workers. Worker productivity went up, but wages for workers did not. ~1970 is about when the % of workers in unions really started to fall in the US.

Productivity went up, but not necessarily worker productivity. If the machine is automated, or partially automated to the point where you just need someone to push a button, then the skill required by the worker falls and so does the wage.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#320

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

According to Thomas Piketty [1], it's mainly a result of a bifurcation in education, and dramatically rising managerial compensation helped with tax cuts.

I personally also think this is the main answer. In other words, all our massive productivity increases have come from people with a ton of education, and they reap all the rewards, helped with lower taxes. The median worker isn't any more educated and hasn't reaped anything.

> ...I certainly do not believe that r > g is a useful tool for the discussion of rising inequality of labor income: other mechanisms and policies are much more relevant here, e.g., supply and demand of skills and education. For instance, I point out in my book (Piketty 2014a, ch. 8–9) that the rise of top income shares in the United States over the 1980–2010 period is due for the most part to rising inequality of labor earnings, which can itself be explained by a mixture of two groups of factors: rising inequality in access to skills and to higher education over this time period in the United States, an evolution which might have been exacerbated by rising tuition fees and insufficient public investment; and exploding top managerial compensation, itself probably stimulated by changing incentives and norms, and by large cuts in top tax rates...

[1] http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:x918MB5...

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