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Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

reuters.com

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Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#61

Post by concerned_user »

raxxorrax wrote: post #22
adrianN wrote: post #3

This is a necessary step to becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Countries that don't make similar announcements soon are not serious about that goal.

A lot of people might buy cheap used cars in 2029 that might be on the road till 2040-2050. If he is serious about it, which is rare when officials promise something 10 years into the future, he would suggest a plan to provide the needed infrastructure.

You forget that currently road maintenance and other expenses are taken from the petrol tax when share of EV increases there will have to be a tax on charging so total cost of ownership over all the years of owning EV will start to go up.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#62

Post by raxxorrax »

danparsonson wrote: post #29
raxxorrax wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of people might buy cheap used cars in 2029 that might be on the road till 2040-2050. If he is serious about it, which is rare when officials promise something 10 years into the future, he would suggest a plan to provide the needed infrastructure.

What's the alternative? Destroy all petrol and diesel cars in 2029? If they didn't allow a transition period then it wouldn't go well.

Didn't want to say it was a bad idea, just that EV have to become viable for the general population and that is currently not the case because of the higher price. Very high taxes on fuel would also incentivize people to buy EV.

I don't use a car much that is why I have a used one for ~2500$. I know a mechanic for cheap repairs, I need it occasionally to reach friends and family and public transport is not an option since time has become so valuable and it doesn't work for emergencies.

I would not want to spend 20,000$ on a car because it would just be parked most of the time. Especially among younger people I see this very often. It will be interesting to see EVs hit used markets. My company leases cars for 50,000$ without thinking twice and some people just love cars that much, but that isn't realistic for the vast majority of people.

Currently used EV can cost 25,000$. Not viable for the mass market.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#63

Post by onion2k »

djmobley wrote: post #43
LatteLazy wrote: post #30

This perfectly epitomises the uk (and the rest of the worlds) attitude to global warming: * it's a non binding commitment to do something but not for at least a decade * it's not enough even if it does happen * it will be too late by then (it probably already is for anything but drastic action) * it's totally at the whim of future governments who will be no more willing to spend the money/time/popularity than the cur…

I think you’ve completely missed the point of what is a very reasonable and forward-thinking signalling exercise. You cannot have sudden cliff-edges in policies (like banning the sale of new ICE vehicles) that would put thousands, if not millions of people out of jobs. You need to send signals like this to the market well in advance so they can invest and plan ahead.

The signals that the ban is coming have been there for decades. Professor David King, former chief scientific advisor to the UK government, suggested a ban on petrol cars in 2002 (http://www.evuk.co.uk/hotwires/rawstuff/art33.html). That would have been a bit early for a ban in my opinion, but had the government heeded his advice and put in a legally binding ban to come in from, say, 2015, then the UK would be well ahead of the curve and would have created tens of thousands of jobs in the electric vehicle industry.

It's also worth pointing out that the 'ban' doesn't ban the sale of all ICE cars - hybrids are still going to be available for sale until at least 2035.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#64

Post by perfunctory »

anovikov wrote: post #38
LatteLazy wrote: post #30

This perfectly epitomises the uk (and the rest of the worlds) attitude to global warming: * it's a non binding commitment to do something but not for at least a decade * it's not enough even if it does happen * it will be too late by then (it probably already is for anything but drastic action) * it's totally at the whim of future governments who will be no more willing to spend the money/time/popularity than the cur…

But on the other hand, this IS indeed a super drastic action and we can't expect any nation on Earth apart from possibly, a few city-states like Singapore, to do as much in the same time frame. Petrol cars will be mainstay of transportation for about 40-50 years and will dominate new car sales for at least 20-30 years depending on the country. Anything but classic petrol and diesel cars will still hold tiny market sh…

> we can't expect any nation on Earth apart from possibly, a few city-states like Singapore, to do as much in the same time frame.

Really?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#65

Post by conjectures »

LatteLazy wrote: post #30

This perfectly epitomises the uk (and the rest of the worlds) attitude to global warming: * it's a non binding commitment to do something but not for at least a decade * it's not enough even if it does happen * it will be too late by then (it probably already is for anything but drastic action) * it's totally at the whim of future governments who will be no more willing to spend the money/time/popularity than the cur…

On this specific issue, what more could be done, really?

Bring the ban to 2025? 2022? One can't simply expect mass production to switch that fast.

UK has already tightened emissions rules on vehicles and VED taxes more polluting cars more heavily. They could, and probably will, ratchet things more.

The right response on this policy is to say: great thanks Boris, you can clearly see the potential in green tech, now could you do X, Y, and Z too?

Yes, the government expects people to lap this up. Which is a reason why they do it. If they see electric cars both piss off the Daily Mail camp and yet are still criticised as worthless by environmentalists then we're not giving them the right incentives to take further measures.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#66

Post by ainiriand »

djmobley wrote: post #43
LatteLazy wrote: post #30

This perfectly epitomises the uk (and the rest of the worlds) attitude to global warming: * it's a non binding commitment to do something but not for at least a decade * it's not enough even if it does happen * it will be too late by then (it probably already is for anything but drastic action) * it's totally at the whim of future governments who will be no more willing to spend the money/time/popularity than the cur…

I think you’ve completely missed the point of what is a very reasonable and forward-thinking signalling exercise. You cannot have sudden cliff-edges in policies (like banning the sale of new ICE vehicles) that would put thousands, if not millions of people out of jobs. You need to send signals like this to the market well in advance so they can invest and plan ahead.

There are many things that can be done, in this very same moment. The problem is the high cost in political resources that no one is willing to pay.

Some examples:

- Start by implementing a odd/even rule for license plates in big cities, even full bans on weekends.

- Tax and/or de-subsidize the meat industry.

- Incentivize the installation of wind or other renewable energies. Energies with no CO2 emissions, like nuclear, should be encouraged.

- Stop getting oil from the northern sea. Leave it underground.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#67

Post by rowanG077 »

djmobley wrote: post #43
LatteLazy wrote: post #30

This perfectly epitomises the uk (and the rest of the worlds) attitude to global warming: * it's a non binding commitment to do something but not for at least a decade * it's not enough even if it does happen * it will be too late by then (it probably already is for anything but drastic action) * it's totally at the whim of future governments who will be no more willing to spend the money/time/popularity than the cur…

I think you’ve completely missed the point of what is a very reasonable and forward-thinking signalling exercise. You cannot have sudden cliff-edges in policies (like banning the sale of new ICE vehicles) that would put thousands, if not millions of people out of jobs. You need to send signals like this to the market well in advance so they can invest and plan ahead.

Millions of people die or they are out of Jobs? What a hard choice to make. The consideration shouldn't be "but what about the economy?". It should be what if we don't do it.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#68

Post by barnacled »

This is utterly ridiculous. I live in the UK and have been renting for many years, I've lived at 15+ addresses and not at a single one could I have powered the car from home. Not one.

The UK is small, cars are squeezed onto tiny roads and most people do on-street parking, i.e. you park where you can. When I last had a car I could only park around the corner from my flat (which was set far back from the road).

Having off-street parking is a luxury here that only a small % of people have, and even then if you have a block of flats it still makes charging from home more or less practically impossible.

Unless the govt intend to install charging points at every car parking spot on every residential road in the entire country in 9 years (!) or whatever the full timeline they have in their minds for everybody to have electric then this is not feasible.

That's not to mention the fact that charging electric cars requires very significant current to do so in a reasonable timeframe. Electrical substations in the UK simply could not cope with anything close to full electric car deployment without the entire electrical network being upgraded.

And this is before we get on to practicality issues around cars breaking down, longer trips or how petrol stations might be used given charge time.

I think there is some kind of shared delusion that this is some easy way of reducing CO2 emissions. It's not easy, and there are very big questions and trade-offs that nobody appears able to address.

Before people suggest 'well people need to use public transport then' - while the UK has better public transport than e.g. much of the US (I went to Austin without a car once, that was tough) - outside of London public transport is extremely expensive, very very unreliable (our trains for example are the most expensive and least reliable in all of Europe), slow and entirely impractical for many areas.

I am not anti-electric car, in fact I wouldn't mind using one (that acceleration, consistent torque, so much more reliable) - it's just there are huge practical issues that the govt seem never to address.

I personally think the appropriate compromise is to move forward with very efficient hybrid vehicles.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#69

Post by bjoernbu »

I really wonder about the charging infrastrucuture. I guess it is doable and a necessary transmission, but I am a bit afraid it may be the next thing some countries are sleeping on.

As a German, there are serious subsidies for home owners to install one right now. However, I just moved into a new rental apparment and visiteted quite a few places that were all built in 2020. All of them had very nice parking spaces allocaed to the flat, but zero wallboxes for the entire appartment. I also looked into buying a flat and often it would have been difficult, sometimes even impossible to install one on my own behalf wihtout checking with all other buyers (and these kinds of changes often lead to tedious legal fights, afaik). The place I'm moving to doesn't have one either, but the ladlord will install one, once needed. At the moment I still have a car with a diesel engine and no plans to change soon(I go almost everywhere by bike, even have a different one for rainly days and to carry groceries, and do 0-2 longer trips per month and ~1 very long trip for vacation per year, bike + diesel seems to fit that quite well) soon, but the next car will be electric i guess

To make things worse: The overall power comsumption should not be too much of a problem, but if almost vehicle was electric and charged where people live, the power infrastructure could be in serious trouble. If improving it in remote areas goes anywhere as well as FTTC/FTTH internet, we're headed for disaster. There are a lot of interesting ideas, e.g. decentralized batteries within people's homes and renewables. But if all the focus is on changing the cars on the road, I have little hope that other transitions will be quick enough

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#70

Post by onion2k »

Jetrel wrote: post #60
physicsguy wrote: post #31

Many, many houses do not have anything other than on-street parking here. Since 2012 I've lived in 5 houses, and three of them had no driveway. I'm currently buying a house which has no drive way, with no way of fitting one. Apparently 1/3 houses have only on street parking. Unless they also provide huge, huge grants to rapidly implement dense onstreet charging, and fast, this is a pipedream and will end up getting p…

I mean, with new teslas, their range is similar enough to gas cars that you only need to charge them about once a week, if that. And they charge fast enough that it's not terribly dissimilar from hitting the gas station, which currently is perhaps a 10 minute affair for gas. Bumping that to ~20min isn't a dealbreaker. It's feasible, if a little bit annoying, to have a refueling story for them that's similar to that o…

Bumping that to ~20min isn't a dealbreaker.

Imagine you turn up to a charging station behind 4 other cars, and there's 2 charging points. Your 20 minute wait is now an hour. If each car took 10 minutes then you'd only be waiting 20 minutes.

Increasing the average waiting time in a queue has a terrible impact on throughput.

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