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Airbnb S-1

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81–90 of 471 posts

Re: Airbnb S-1

#81
post #66

They lost $600 mil in _2019_? And $700 mil so far this year? Woah.

Keeping losses flat while going through the pandemic is a feat in itself tbh.

To be fair they funded that by dropping a ton of spend out of the marketing (which makes sense).

I know there were layoffs so I'm sure they were in full cost-cutting mode by the time the pandemic hit full swing

Re: Airbnb S-1

#82

>> the board of directors reduced Mr. Chesky’s base salary from $110,000 to $1, set his target bonus at $0, and granted him a long-term, multi-year equity award comprised of 12,000,000 RSUs (the “Multi-Year Award”). Its quite surprising that CEO of Airbnb should make just $110k/ annum in base salary before the company goes public. I would expect it to be around $500k.

He has almost certainly sold stock already. $110k rounds to zero compared to even just this RSU grant. The salary is symbolic

Re: Airbnb S-1

#83
wow so finally they pulled this through during covid, good timing with the vaccines just coming out.

Any airbnb=er here wants to invest in a travel company? lol you never know..

Re: Airbnb S-1

#84
The seesaw in revenue over the last 3 quarters is insane: 841M, 334M, 1.3B in Q1, Q2, Q3. They even posted a profit last quarter. I've gotta say, the S1 looks appealing considering how few profitable silicon valley companies there are these days. On the other hand, I have a hard time interpreting whether this is truly a profitable company since the numbers are all over the place.

It also looks like Q3 tends to be their best quarter by far. Is that because of summer vacations?

Re: Airbnb S-1

#85
post #29

I wonder about their long term business model. Sure they have opened up the industry, but I'd think its quite easy to copy them. Sure there are a bunch of people that will keep AirBnB their favorite but when I'm looking at places I'll religiously check every site I can. There will be nothing unique about them.

I disagree strongly on this point. Building up a two-sided marketplace is incredibly difficult. On the consumer side, consider that many younger travelers have zero affinity towards hotel chains, and manage their entire accommodations arrangement through AirBnB, which feeds into an absolute requirement for hosts to list on the platform. This is not simply two markets you can copy: the feedback loops are so powerful already.

Re: Airbnb S-1

#86
post #9

Down $600m in 2019 and another $600m in 2020? With $2b in debt? Ouch. I'm reading this right, correct? I see the cash positions below are a bit different, but that's likely from... the loans? 2018 looked so hopeful. They only lose $20m total! 2019 should have been a profitable year, IMO, but they went with the aggressive strategy.

I wonder what's up with 2019. Like 2020 is understandable for a hospitality during a pandemic, but why would 2019 be the same?

Re: Airbnb S-1

#87

I heard a podcast discuss the possibility of AirBnB offering shares or options to superhosts (like me) ahead of the IPO–essentially as a "thank you" to the people who helped build the marketplace. Anyone have thoughts on if that is possible or plausible?

Not plausible. Just wishful thinking. How would that even work if superhosts are not accredited investors?

some Uber drivers got RSUs so I don't see why it wouldn't be possible for Airbnb.

Re: Airbnb S-1

#88
post #57
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

pg is surprisingly prescient in his predictions about the potential size of the opportunity. This might just be survivorship bias though, but still, one takeaway I got from the email exchanges is that pg really evaluated founders on both the idea/market opportunity and the qualities of the founders themselves: I'd recommend having the debate after meeting them instead of before. We had big doubts about this idea, but…

It's interesting that they both missed the real killer edge here. Fred said it was Etsy, Paul said it would move up into hotels. Neither are really what happened. Turns out in most places it's profitable to arbitrage long term property cost and AirBnB income. So you have a bunch of small time operators buying or leasing property and putting them on AirBnB. AFAICT that seems to be the bulk of AirBnB business. Not Etsy…

Reality and organic matters are much more messy than predictive simple abstract models.

Re: Airbnb S-1

#89
post #66

They lost $600 mil in _2019_? And $700 mil so far this year? Woah.

Keeping losses flat while going through the pandemic is a feat in itself tbh.

Well it's a software company after all, all they had to do was cut their ad spending. It's the hosts that are in trouble instead.

Re: Airbnb S-1

#90
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The experiences that people report often indicate systemic issues within the platform/product, especially when they are as pervasive as some on the AirBnB platform are.* I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them. * I've had two shit hosts that left me up a creek scrambling to find housing, as has my S/O. As a consumer, I am way less likely to use the platform now because my experience has shown me that AirBnB either doe…

I... disagree? Hard numbers showing high rates of these interactions would be a systemic thread. The loudest voices on the Internet, not so much.

You can interpret anecdotal data however you see fit - I'm not going to run a survey to validate the hypothesis either way.

That said, I think you'd be foolish as a potential investor to not consider that AirBnB appears to have some unresolved platform issues that could create opportunity for a competing product to make inroads. And while the voices we hear may well be the loudest ones, they can still be influential in driving change, positive or negative.

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