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One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

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251–260 of 565 posts

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#251
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. HN is going the way of Slashdot.

Oh wow, I'm so happy I'm not the only one thinking this. I noticed this transition over the past few years on these forums and I even commented about it in the past.

It is the path of things on the internet that are interesting and then become popular. Same for Usenet :) Kuro5hin escaped by becoming uninteresting. Our descendants may find a solution.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#252
post #24

I think no one really knows what the different parties represent any more. Most people I know voted Republican were low-wage working people, where my highly paid educated friends voted Democrat. Isn't it supposed to be other way around? No wonder everyone is confused.

> Most people I know voted Republican were low-wage working people, where my highly paid educated friends voted Democrat Biden actively courted high-earning, educated voters with his free college and student loan forgiveness policies, which amount to a wealth transfer to people who already have higher lifetime average earnings and are at a competitive advantage in the employment marketplace. Not very progressive: htt…

While it's true that the average salary of people who complete a college degree is higher than those who don't there are large numbers who don't complete the degree (which ends up with little salary benefit), or who do degrees that don't provide great salary outcomes[1]

[1] https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2020/data-on-display/educa... - note the associate degree and "some college" levels.

> He also pledged to fund it by raising corporate income taxes, which will reduce the profitability (and therefore, the value) of all publicly traded companies in the US, which means anyone with a 401(k) or IRA will indirectly be paying for this,

That's not how it works. The stockmarket is a comparative market where higher profitability compared to other companies is what affects stock price. This means tax increases to all companies don't drop stock prices.

Also the amount of tax increase is so small it is unlikely to be noticeable on the P&L anyway.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think the bulk of voters for Trump believe one of these things? He won a considerable number of votes.

The bulk of Trump voters are from rural areas, and tend to be less (or un-)educated. I don't know what percentage of Trump voters believe QAnon conspiracy theories. But I do believe the bulk of Trump voters are voting against their self interests, because they are gullible. Why else would most Trump voters come from rural areas? If they had legit reasons to support Trump why aren't the voters spread equally among urb…

The rejoinder to this line of thinking is generally: "if liberals are so smart, how come they always lose?"

Worth a thought.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

define 'racist' and what makes you think Trump is a 'racist'

"Shithole countries" and a refusing to denounce white supremacy make for an easy start.

To continue: Promoting the birther conspiracy theory, pointedly stiffing Puerto Rico for disaster aid, racist comments about Latinos ("crime and rapists"), all the way back to the Central Park Five ad campaign, actually.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somebody who got it wrong and actually admitted he got it wrong is often a credible source on why he got it wrong.

I disagree. It's FAR too early for him to be writing about "why we got it wrong" because if they knew that now, they would have known that last week. Look, if it was 2 points in a couple states here or there, I get it! But... if the guy was claiming the possibility of a 400 vote Biden landslide? Nah man, that is either massive incompetence or it's intentionally misleading. Neither scenario do I trust this person.

> because if they knew that now, they would have known that last week.

Last week he didn't have access to the results or exit polling data like he does now.

> if the guy was claiming the possibility of a 400 vote Biden landslide?

A polling error of this magnitude in the other direction would have been a massive landslide.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#256

This is my personal experience: over the course of my life, I have held both conservative positions and more progressive ones (depending on the topic, and in different periods of my life). I have always been much more willing to discuss openly those positions that I would describe as progressive. This is despite the fact that over the years I have been living in more than a handful of different countries, each one wi…

[deleted]

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#258
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh wow, I'm so happy I'm not the only one thinking this. I noticed this transition over the past few years on these forums and I even commented about it in the past.

It is the path of things on the internet that are interesting and then become popular. Same for Usenet :) Kuro5hin escaped by becoming uninteresting. Our descendants may find a solution.

Things change over time. Also note that HN used to be over-run by libertarians that would make Ayn blush. Kuro5hin escaped by dying. There is lobsters, but it has almost zero discussion and overly focuses on "the rules".

I think norms are better and more powerful. Be the norm you would like to see in the world.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11609308

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He denounced white supremacy many times, you are misinformed. What ‘shithole countries’ have to do with racism

Denouncing white supremacists after the entire country says you have to isn't really the same. Anyone with critical thinking skills can see that the number of times he has refused to denounce white supremacists or called them good people makes him a white supremacist.

It's been three years, can we please stop repeating this lie? Trump has disavowed white supremacists clearly and repeatedly, and the claim that he called them "fine people" is not true. Let me say that again: it's wrong. This is not ambiguous: it would have taken you a single Google search to find out that when Trump talked about "fine people" at Charlottesville he explicitly said that he wasn't talking about the white supremacists and neo-Nazis and that those people should be "condemned totally." And that's just one of countless times that he's condemned white supremacists and distanced himself from them.

The media repeats this easily-debunkable falsehood again and again and again and again, people like you fall for it, and then they have the nerve to tell us that it's only the Right who engage in "misinformation".

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CuwFa0c-GnM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9JmOSsv-KSg

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/03/21/trump_...

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#260
post #82
post #62

TL;DR: Distrustful people don't talk to strangers. They vote differently too.

it's a bit hard to trust mainstream media that have been lying to you and called you 'racist' for 4 years.

The trust in this case is trust of strangers who are calling you to ask you polling questions.

When it comes to media, all information you consume must be read with a critical eye. You need to understand what assumptions are driving what is said, what the tone is and where they are drawing their conclusions from.

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