151–160 of 565 posts
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Is exit polling no longer working? All of the discussion I’ve seen seems to focus on polling in advance of the election.
Exit polling was basically meaningless in this election because mail in votes were the deciding factor.
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Agreed. I would also suspect that there are some other factors: - people hoping for change are more willing to answer polls - people who are ashamed of their opinions are more unwilling to answer polls The second one, perhaps, gives too much credit for self-awareness, though.
It's less about 'ashamed of their opinions' or the 'shy trump voter.' The article talks about this. The crux of the problem - at least argued by this authored and from what I see working politics backed up generally - is that those Republican / Trump voters do not trust others and are less likely to take the poll in the first place. Those that do take survey generally do not lie about their support. The article gives…
it's hard to trust someone who calls you 'racist' without evidence.
It's also hard to trust people who are willing to destroy your life if you're not on their side.
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The thing that not enough people bring up is the rampant robocalling. Before I left the US around a year and a half ago, I was getting 2-3 calls a day. Basically, if I ever got a call from a number not in my contact list, I would never answer. I know I'm not the only one like this, but I don't have any numbers to back it up. Even in Germany where robocalling seemingly doesn't exist, I still have this reflex, so it ma…
> Basically, if I ever got a call from a number not in my contact list, I would never answer. I know I'm not the only one like this, but I don't have any numbers to back it up. huh... I have literally never met a single person that answers cold calls on personal lines, this was already SOP when I was a kid. Seriously, who's picking up those calls?
For spam calls, I lost all pretence of politeness years ago. In the best case I just hang up.
However, I only get a spam call every 3 months or so.
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Is exit polling no longer working? All of the discussion I’ve seen seems to focus on polling in advance of the election.
Considering the trend for people to be socially canceled, scorned, and shamed for supporting the "wrong" candidate, yes I think exit polling (and all polling for that matter) are not working. People are much more likely to either decline to respond, or they will lie.
Apparently that isn't a problem. Yet. But non-response is.
- uncaring and undecided voters, if they had to vote, are likely to vote for the winners, because being on the winning side makes them feel better (which may have decided this election)
- if you lose the election, people are more likely to believe that the other side cheated if you were projected a clear winner by the polls, so you can bring people on the streets or run fraudulent lawsuits to deter the opponents and still get a lot of support
So, strategically, it pays to poll higher regardless of how things really are. Given how a lot of media organizations are against Trump, it's not unlikely that these polling organizations were too... and they helped the opponents.
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"Shithole countries" and a refusing to denounce white supremacy make for an easy start.
He denounced white supremacy many times, you are misinformed. What ‘shithole countries’ have to do with racism
The book Thinking in Bets points out that predictions are given with a % of certainty. If I say X party will win at Y% and Z party wins, it doesn't mean the model is broken.
On the other hand, this makes the whole operation unfalsifiable in any reasonable time frame. "I always said the candidate had a .1% chance of winning!" Given two major elections in a row where the results were essentially out of the error bars, it is perfectly reasonable to be dropping your confidence on pollsters very hard. Once was perhaps understandable, but twice is getting into "right .01% of the time" territor…
At a poker table you get a high number of events to check against but a presidential election is only once every 4 years.
I wonder how accurate the local elections are vs the national? If neither is accurate, then that's a strong case for your point of view and a change in methodology.
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> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. That might have been true in the past. From 2016-2020, Trump supporters have been loudly and repeatedly called racistNaziMisogynistHomophobe, or the polite version, "deplorable". That is not an environment that encourages honesty.
Trump supporters do seem to differ from my view of a 'traditional republican'; if not the actions of the namesake (which I do view as the negative things you describe) what do they see in the candidate or platform being supported?
What policies did Trump enact which you think animated the support that Trump received?
Who replies honestly to political question to random strangers? I know I don't. What's the benefit of letting anyone know where you stand politically at this point? None. It's much more likely - no matter which side you're for - that the person asking could have an adverse reaction. Things are just way too polarized now, not sure how that can change, but that's how it is. I mean outside friends/family I simply take a…
Research has confirmed that people don't lie to pollsters in any meaningful way when asked their head to head preference. It's mentioned in the last graph of the article. The crux of this article is rather than 'shy trump voters' there is simply a large amount of these Trump voters who will refuse to take a survey flat out.
I'm curious where polls actually work, are there any retrospectives polling agencies conduct and post online for scrutiny and constructive feedback? It'll probably help to enumerate all the premises that polling begins with and question whether those premises are in fact the case.