One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Nov 10, 2020, 9:22 PM UTC

vorpalhex wrote: post #84

dragonwriter wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s pretty obvious from election maps and donor data that the democrats are now the party of coastal/urban elites Urban populations, sure. Not particularly coastal aside from the fact that there's more urban population on the coasts, as county-level maps show pretty clearly. “Elites” are more dubious. Sure, Democrats and Republicans (counting leaners) are closer to parity for voters with less than a college degree…

> OTOH, Blacks, who are overwhelming not elites, overwhelming are (and even more overwhelming lean) Democratic, and the same is true predominantly (though less overwhelmingly) of Hispanics. I think that's actually the rub. Blacks and Hispanics are voting less and less for Democrats, and that is true more for this last election than 2016 [1] Despite the very visible rhetoric of racial equality and other movements, the…

Post by 0xffff2 » Tue, Nov 10, 2020, 9:24 PM UTC

macintux wrote: post #90

_AzMoo wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exit polls were historically used as a method of detecting election fraud, because they've always been very accurate. It's only the last few elections where we've seen such a large disparity in polling and actual results.

Is exit polling no longer working? All of the discussion I’ve seen seems to focus on polling in advance of the election.

Post by bra-ket » Tue, Nov 10, 2020, 9:26 PM UTC

mring33621 wrote: post #97

0x53 wrote: post #3

One of the biggest issues I think is that the polling is still done by just randomly calling people. I think I agree that there is a large skew introduced by the simple fact of only reaching people willing to answer a call from an unknown number.

Agreed. I would also suspect that there are some other factors: - people hoping for change are more willing to answer polls - people who are ashamed of their opinions are more unwilling to answer polls The second one, perhaps, gives too much credit for self-awareness, though.

Post by throwaway201103 » Tue, Nov 10, 2020, 9:26 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #18

Maybe it doesn't really matter much. I mean, sure, we need some amount of polling because it informs decisions such as who gets to participate in televised debates, etc. But other than that, what does the general public get out of polling? It's a spectator sport. In the end, all that matters is the votes, and people should really be encouraged to remember this. I'd think 2016 and 2020 would be a healthy reminder of t…

Post by mason55 » Tue, Nov 10, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

andybak wrote: post #56

losteric wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Basically, if I ever got a call from a number not in my contact list, I would never answer. I know I'm not the only one like this, but I don't have any numbers to back it up. huh... I have literally never met a single person that answers cold calls on personal lines, this was already SOP when I was a kid. Seriously, who's picking up those calls?

> Seriously, who's picking up those calls? People who don't live in countries where the problem is this bad? I'm in the UK and I get about 1 unsolicited call a month. If I didn't pick up numbers I didn't recognize I would have missed my Doctor (this week), several new client leads and multiple friends and acquaintences that changed their number.