Earlier quoted context omitted.
Voting for racists makes you a racist.
define 'racist' and what makes you think Trump is a 'racist'
"Shithole countries" and a refusing to denounce white supremacy make for an easy start.
One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
131–140 of 565 posts
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
> OTOH, Blacks, who are overwhelming not elites, overwhelming are (and even more overwhelming lean) Democratic, and the same is true predominantly (though less overwhelmingly) of Hispanics. I think that's actually the rub. Blacks and Hispanics are voting less and less for Democrats, and that is true more for this last election than 2016 [1] Despite the very visible rhetoric of racial equality and other movements, the…
> I think that's actually the rub. Blacks and Hispanics are voting less and less for Democrats, and that is true more for this last election than 2016 Clinton won greater than 90% of the black vote in 2016, as did House Democrats in 2018; there's indications that Biden did a little worse this year. specifically among black men. > the Dems are becoming the party of rich white people. Good verified voter data for 2020…
> Good verified voter data for 2020 will take a while
Agreed and my above source is (probably) using exit poll data, which we should be a bit suspicious about. This is early and it's going to take a few weeks to get and unpack data.
> in 2016 Trump won 55-39 among whites with over $150K income;
And he seems to have taken losses there in 2020
> even if they've lost some ground with some of these groups compared to some point in the past, Democrats remain heavily favored, nationally, by blacks, asians, and hispanics.
I was reading an analysis today that suggested Dems may continue to lose these groups - and they will be losing them to the Republicans ( [2] but note the source and that's it opinion and give the appropriate grain of salt). Given how uncomfortably close 2020 has been for the Dems, I would not rest on my laurels and assume we'll just continue to come out ahead in these groups.
It's starting to seem like there is something the Republicans are selling that are picking up these groups, and the Dems are failing to hold onto them despite their messaging.
[2] - https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/what-if-americas-...
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#133For no particular reason, I feel very strongly that you could achieve much more accurate results by asking people to estimate what _they_ think the final margin will be then average those results. I'm inclined to think that community members know their community well enough that given a large enough sample, this average will trend towards the true result. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd edit: A quic…
There's actually some good research on that.
Another source - i think i've read a couple journal articles on this https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/78/S1/204/1836551#xref-...
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#134Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Basically, if I ever got a call from a number not in my contact list, I would never answer. I know I'm not the only one like this, but I don't have any numbers to back it up. huh... I have literally never met a single person that answers cold calls on personal lines, this was already SOP when I was a kid. Seriously, who's picking up those calls?
> Seriously, who's picking up those calls? People who don't live in countries where the problem is this bad? I'm in the UK and I get about 1 unsolicited call a month. If I didn't pick up numbers I didn't recognize I would have missed my Doctor (this week), several new client leads and multiple friends and acquaintences that changed their number.
I don't pick up unknown numbers, I call them back a bit later. If the number turns out to belong to a call center, great, I just hang up. If it's a real person, sure, let's chat.
If somebody really wants something, they'll call again.
Also, sending an SMS to the unknown number and asking for a name works wonders.
If someone really wants something they will take the time to type.
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#135Could you select a random group of individuals up front and then bid on their collective participation in a poll (say, beyond 95%, you all get $10)? You might have to pick a few groups and bid between them.
Yes. A lot of the digital surveys you see do this. E.g. they enroll people in mechanical turk. They claim it's similar to a Nielsen group but I don't buy it. We do truly random surveys delivered in mobile ads. Can't ask nearly as many questions but I think it's one of the best ways to currently get a large truly representative sample
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
define 'racist' and what makes you think Trump is a 'racist'
"Shithole countries" and a refusing to denounce white supremacy make for an easy start.
He denounced white supremacy many times, you are misinformed.
What ‘shithole countries’ have to do with racism
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#137Who replies honestly to political question to random strangers? I know I don't. What's the benefit of letting anyone know where you stand politically at this point? None. It's much more likely - no matter which side you're for - that the person asking could have an adverse reaction. Things are just way too polarized now, not sure how that can change, but that's how it is. I mean outside friends/family I simply take a…
Research has confirmed that people don't lie to pollsters in any meaningful way when asked their head to head preference. It's mentioned in the last graph of the article. The crux of this article is rather than 'shy trump voters' there is simply a large amount of these Trump voters who will refuse to take a survey flat out.
Isn't trump voters refusing to take polls what everyone means when they say "shy trump voters"?
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Seriously, who's picking up those calls? People who don't live in countries where the problem is this bad? I'm in the UK and I get about 1 unsolicited call a month. If I didn't pick up numbers I didn't recognize I would have missed my Doctor (this week), several new client leads and multiple friends and acquaintences that changed their number.
Wouldn’t all those people leave voicemails?
I guess so but I loathe voicemail more than I loathe the occasional marketing call.
It's easier to just answer given the overall chance of it being a waste of time.
Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
#139Who replies honestly to political question to random strangers? I know I don't. What's the benefit of letting anyone know where you stand politically at this point? None. It's much more likely - no matter which side you're for - that the person asking could have an adverse reaction. Things are just way too polarized now, not sure how that can change, but that's how it is. I mean outside friends/family I simply take a…
Research has confirmed that people don't lie to pollsters in any meaningful way when asked their head to head preference. It's mentioned in the last graph of the article. The crux of this article is rather than 'shy trump voters' there is simply a large amount of these Trump voters who will refuse to take a survey flat out.
This reads to me as being in alignment with the parent comment to which it was posted as a response.
"... voters who will refuse to take a survey flat out" is equivalent to "... simply tak[ing] a neutral, non-committal stance on almost every hot-button issue these days."