Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

931–940 of 1001 posts

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#931

Post by awillen »

jamez1 wrote: post #930

They've made a terribly flawed assumption which drives that 90% number. VE is modeled using a beta binomial model with a fixed prior of an infection rate of 1.5% per year. Obviously this number is going to vary a lot depending on the sample. [1] By putting a fixed point vs the appropriate wide ranging distribution as the prior, the model scores the results far higher than otherwise. This is a non-result and it was wi…

I have no idea what this means, but it sure sounds like a legitimate concern. Can anyone who actually understands this confirm?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#933

Post by berdario »

bluGill wrote: post #625
berdario wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does this compare to the chinese vaccine? It's already in use around the world[1], but I haven't heard of how many people gain immunity thanks to it in percentage, nor if that one also requires multiple jabs. 1. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/3/uae-pm-and-dubai-ru...

Who knows. This is the first to track and announce scientific results. It may be better or worse, we don't know. Maybe numbers are being kept and we can figure out in a few years. Maybe the Chinese are not keeping track in any way and we will never know.

I looked a bit further, and they shared data on their vaccine already in August, but there are gaps:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/sinopharm-shares-phase...

"unlike other COVID-19 vaccine trials, the study lacked a comparison arm featuring serum samples from patients previously infected with the coronavirus, complicating the task of interpreting whether the response is likely to confer immunity."

It seems that a vaccine needing a 2nd booster jab is also something that is quite common.

Anyhow, good news all around... The more viable vaccines we have, the more likely that the pandemic will be controlled sooner.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#934

Post by laGrenouille »

jamez1 wrote: post #930

They've made a terribly flawed assumption which drives that 90% number. VE is modeled using a beta binomial model with a fixed prior of an infection rate of 1.5% per year. Obviously this number is going to vary a lot depending on the sample. [1] By putting a fixed point vs the appropriate wide ranging distribution as the prior, the model scores the results far higher than otherwise. This is a non-result and it was wi…

I don’t think that’s what the report is saying: The 1.5% is used to determine how long the trial will take to reach the required number of cases. Not sure what prior they were using, but my guess is that it’s conservative.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#935

Post by sanxiyn »

jamez1 wrote: post #930

They've made a terribly flawed assumption which drives that 90% number. VE is modeled using a beta binomial model with a fixed prior of an infection rate of 1.5% per year. Obviously this number is going to vary a lot depending on the sample. [1] By putting a fixed point vs the appropriate wide ranging distribution as the prior, the model scores the results far higher than otherwise. This is a non-result and it was wi…

As far as I can tell attack rate assumption is there only to calculate desired sample size, and statistical analysis of vaccine efficacy is independent of attack rate assumption.

It seems to me exact prior is unspecified in protocol. The usual choice is uniform prior.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#936

Post by thehappypm »

topranks wrote: post #879
thehappypm wrote: post #678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly? I think if you're not sure, you probably don't need it. I'm young, work from home, healthy. I have friends who are nurses -- they yearn for a vaccine. My grandparents and my parents know that they are at risk and would line up for one. I have a friend with diabetes who would feel like his life was back. I'd gladly take a vaccine if it became available -- would love to not worry about giving it to my parents…

Worry about the old, the frail, the immunosuppressed. Vaccines only work if a high enough proportion of the entire population get them. Obviously the vulnerable will get it first - but please don’t skip it just because you’re young and strong.

Oh, I have no intention of skipping the vaccine (you can see if you read my comment to the end). I was commenting more on the desire to get a vaccine early.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#937

Post by thehappypm »

Aaronstotle wrote: post #883
RobertDeNiro wrote: post #716

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being downvoted for no good reason. Mass farming is what brought us here. This will keep happening, unless we change our behavior.

Wet markets and mass farming are two different beasts

Are they though? Mass farming puts humans into orders of magnitude more contact with animals than wet markets. In the case of covid, a wet market led to the disease. There are plenty of cases — just about the majority of plagues — where a domesticated animal led to disease

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#938

Post by bparsons »

headmelted wrote: post #706
mquirion wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a 2-dose regimen, needs to be stored at -70C, and Pfizer already said they'll only have 1.5B doses over the course of the next year. It's going to be a very slow roll out.

It is. I’m saying after that period. Not withstanding the rather enormous caveat of antivaxxers. They have grown significantly in number during this pandemic what with all the wild conspiracy theories. It’s worth checking that out.

More vaccine for me.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#939

Post by xigency »

slumdev wrote: post #929
djrogers wrote: post #745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, no - if one follows the 'religious logic' as you call it, we live in a Fallen World under the dominion of Principalities and Power of Darkness. It is from there that the virus came. The 'God will smite thee' beliefs largely came about as a form of control over people, and do not line up with New Testament biblical teaching.

> New Testament biblical teaching For amen I say unto you, till heaven and earth pass, one jot, or one tittle shall not pass of the law, till all be fulfilled.

Which is contradicted by Kosher dietary restrictions being struck down in the New Testament.

Part of the power of the Bible is its contradictions. Like in math, you can use one contradiction to prove any statement true.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#940

Post by antgiant »

lbeltrame wrote: post #577
The_rationalist wrote: post #489

So what does being injected an mRNA vaccine means ? My DNA will be permanently altered and permanently create fake covid proteins ? will this add overhead to my biological processes, am I becoming less optimized ? Will my body consume more sugar ? will those generated proteins accelerate my ageing ? What could go wrong ? (I don't think anything will go wrong but what does the science says ?)

> My DNA will be permanently altered and permanently create fake covid proteins ? No, in fact, mechanisms in cells are in places so that "heteroduplexes" (meaning one filament of RNA and one of DNA paired together) are quickly degraded. Secondly, the RNA doesn't even need to get to the nucleus, where the DNA is. All it needs is to land in the cytoplasm, where it will get processed by the protein synthesis machinery (…

That is all true as long as the RNA doesn’t replicate itself and only produces antigens. However, I couldn’t find any papers at all that discussed if any of the current mRNA vaccine candidates self replicate their RNA to amplify the antigen production. I’d love some good references that address that.
Post reply on HN