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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#681

Post by lostlogin »

gizmo wrote: post #372
bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

> Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere.

Could you go a little deeper in this? It seems to have worked in Australia, South Korea and NZ as far as I’m aware, what am I missing?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#682

Post by anoncake »

justforyou wrote: post #203
anoncake wrote: post #50

I wonder if the people scared of permanent damage caused by Covid (for which there is no evidence) will be equally scared of the permanent damage caused by this experimental vaccine (for which there is no evidence either).

There is plenty of evidence and ongoing study of long-term sequelae. Denying such is wildly irresponsible and hostile to the community. Stop trolling.

Then please post some of that evidence. Evidence, not anecdotes -- of course there are individual cases among millions of infected, that doesn't mean it's a phenomenon worth caring about.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#683

Post by mandeepj »

vermontdevil wrote: post #663
mandeepj wrote: post #654

Looks like Pfizer waited to release these news after election is called for a candidate

They also did not take $ from Operation Speed Warp so I think they waited till now to keep this apolitical.

Right. But, I think it's double-sided. Would they started the research without US govt's contract of almost $2B to buy their vaccine?

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#684

Post by anoncake »

jason0597 wrote: post #218
anoncake wrote: post #50

I wonder if the people scared of permanent damage caused by Covid (for which there is no evidence) will be equally scared of the permanent damage caused by this experimental vaccine (for which there is no evidence either).

Experimental vaccine? I disagree. Nearly 45,000 people have taken this vaccine, and they have been monitored for months to make sure no adverse reactions have happened. Combine that with the fact that we live in 2020, and that our knowledge of vaccine science is much better than it was just a couple of decades ago, and it's hard to believe that this is an "experimental" vaccine.

How do we know there won't be any adverse effects after years?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#685

Post by hajile »

grecy wrote: post #613
InterMilan wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought it was bush meat. So human decided to eat something that they shouldn't. Geniuinly asking.

Did god put warning labels on things we should and shouldn't eat? How do I use God's wisdom to decide if if a certain pig is "safe" to eat or not?

If you go by the Koran or Bible, pork is forbidden. If you go by the Bible, most (if not all) bush meat would also be forbidden.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#686

Post by lostlogin »

Certhas wrote: post #658
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

> Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. I am not sure this is true. At least some articles I read attribute the successes in many Asian countries to aggressive contact tracing and quarantining. You don't ask people kindly to self-isolate, you move them to hotels and quarantine them. You don't ask them to remember their contacts, you aggressively investigate them using every source of data available. I thi…

> In order to find less invasive means of controlling covid that respect privacy we ended up limiting freedoms much more and for longer.

There is limited freedom during a lockdown, but a short sharp one can lead to almost complete normality soon after. Short and sharp or long and drawn out?

The drawn out option would seem a dubious freedom. My perspective is heavily skewed by being in NZ and reading US and UK news.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#687

Post by _Microft »

salex89 wrote: post #366
_Microft wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany is planning to establish centers for vaccination exactly to avoid problems with the continous cold chain. (People travel without issue at ambient temperature. They even prefer that to other temperatures;) I would assume that other nations will adopt similiar solutions for vaccines that have ultra-cold storage requirements.

Haha, I find it easier to traverse Germany side-to-side than Serbia.

Touché.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#688

Post by scottlamb »

DrBazza wrote: post #677
scottlamb wrote: post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. Yeah, this alone is bad news. Last year my parents got a two-dose shingles vaccine. The two doses are supposed to be separated by two to six months. My parents struggled to find their second doses in the window. Apparently there was limited supply and no one had the foresight to reserve second doses when people received their…

I'm curious, which country is this? In the UK, the NHS are generally on top of things like this, so it should not happen in most cases.

US. I believe they got these vaccines through pharmacy chains like Walgreens or CVS. This is one of several ways people get vaccines here—it's common for seasonal flu shots especially to be available at employers (medical staff travel from one employer to the next) and pharmacies (sometimes even grocery stores with in-store pharmacies) in addition to the general practitioners' regular clinics. I think for the first dose they got it wherever was convenient—probably the pharmacy where/when they were picking up a prescription—and for the second they looked everywhere for months.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#689

Post by sologoub »

peter422 wrote: post #624
sologoub wrote: post #587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current n=94. The real n=43.5k data apparently will come later. Article doesn’t specify when, but “hopes” to have enough of the larger n analyzed to submit to regulators by 3rd week of November.

No, 43.5k is the number of people in the trial and 94 is the number of confirmed COVID cases within the entire population. The trial will be complete from an effectiveness perspective once there are ~150-200 cases. Safety is a different story and may take more time to wait for side effects.

> However, the data presented is not the final analysis as it is based on only the first 94 volunteers to develop Covid so the precise effectiveness of the vaccine may change when the full results are analysed.

Thanks! Misread the 94, but the n=43.5k is also misleading since they have not analyzed all of the results and duration of the study vs exposure risk is still tbd. If the 94 participants that got COVID also abided by all the other precautions, such as masks, etc, then it stands to reason that the actual infection rate in the population approximating pre-covid behaviors may also be higher.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#690

Post by hm10 »

mandeepj wrote: post #683
vermontdevil wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also did not take $ from Operation Speed Warp so I think they waited till now to keep this apolitical.

Right. But, I think it's double-sided. Would they started the research without US govt's contract of almost $2B to buy their vaccine? https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta...

Of course, do you think they would be hurting for money once they have a vaccine developed? The demand will always be there. They just took the risk with their own money. They have been in the business for decades and they know how to sell a prized drug - with or without a buyer already lined up. A commitment to purchase doesn't mean much in a "seller's market". It will be profitable for the company either way - with or without a pre-contract.
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