Live data from Hacker News

Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

apnews.com

561–570 of 1001 posts

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#561

On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.

I don't get why people care so much about predictions vs actual results in case of presidential elections in the US. The rules look like they were designed for maximum entertainment and sudden changes. The fact that you can win with less votes. When the other person already has 250 electors, but then on the last second you flip Florida or Pennsylvania with a few thousand votes and bam! you are the president!

That's why people love watching your elections so much. Or maybe also because of the fallout in their countries.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#562

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

There was this really good take on this divide by Andrew Yang a few days ago on CNN [clip from Twitter - 0]. Yang is the only candidate I saw who seemed to understand people from all parts of the US. Also, it would have been nice to have a president who understood technology. [0] - https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1324552953861210112

I prefer candidates that don't think they understand technology.

Thinking you understand technology seems to reliably lead to overconfidence. That's better left to advisers, who then have their advice filter by people who are sceptical of things that aren't tried and true and well understood on the holistic basis of actual use in practice.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#563

This election was your regular 4 year reminder that the electoral college is stupid and that the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact needs to be completed.

If I understand how the election works, the “first past the post” voting system is just as damaging. Correct me if I’m wrong, but they are not related.

Explanation from game theory pov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhO6jfHPFQU

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#564

Skimming through this thread, it certainly verges on flame - but I'd just like to remind you all that officially, Biden hasn't won yet. Several (not all) media outlets have called the race, and it sure looks like he will; but the elections haven't yet been certified. With the coming legal challenges, it looks a lot like 2000. Patience.

It really does not. Florida was the deciding factor and was an extremely small margin we don’t see here.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#565

Favorite fact about the 2020 election: Biden not only got more Black votes than Obama, he got a higher percentage of the Democratic Black vote (highest in history, in fact). IOW, Biden is significantly more popular among Blacks than Obama was in 2008 (or 2012). Amazing!

Americans: "we made up our mind about racism, color doesn't matter, all citizens are equal" Also Americans: "omg look at how the BLACKS are voting!"

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#566

A voting system needs to be accurate but it also needs to inspire confidence. I think the U.S. failed on the latter point. Let me be clear that I don't think this affected the outcome , only the confidence in the outcome . Mail-in voting has existed for a long time, but it is being done at a larger scale and in new ways and new places. It was a mistake to do it during such a contentious election. Covid is not a good…

> I would actually prefer voter ID

Unsubstantiated fear mongering erodes confidence.

The opposite side of this coin is voter suppression. A vote suppressed is exactly as bad as a fraudulent vote. But, I think I'm in the minority on the voter ID opinion, and I want people to be confident in democracy, so I hope we can come to a compromise.

I'll vote for voter ID if you vote for expanding access to voting. Make election day a holiday. Make issuance of voter IDs automatic. Switch to no-excuse absentee ballots everywhere. Expand early voting options.

p.s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_rights_in_the_United_St...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_impersonation_(United_St...

Suppression has and continues to be an actual problem. Even in just this election:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-felon-voting-rights-pay...

Late edit: Downvotes. Hysterical. Wonder if it’s the vote suppression advocates or the folks who disagree with voter ID. No fans of compromise?

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#567

In an ideal world, I think we should do either: A) Random selection a la the Venetian Doge (political leader, not meme-canine). The house should definitely be random selection- preferably all citizens over 18 and under say 70 filing a tax return. B) Allow indefinite run-offs with None-of-the-above options. Basically, if None-of-the-above wins, the election is redone but nobody on the ballot is allowed to run for the…

The Doge wasn't selected randomly, but via a series of randomized election rounds in order to ensure that no coordination was possible. Wiki has a fun description:

> Thirty members of the Great Council, chosen by lot, were reduced by lot to nine; the nine chose forty and the forty were reduced by lot to twelve, who chose twenty-five. The twenty-five were reduced by lot to nine, and the nine elected forty-five. These forty-five were once more reduced by lot to eleven, and the eleven finally chose the forty-one who elected the doge.[19] Election required at least twenty-five votes out of forty-one, nine votes out of eleven or twelve, or seven votes out of nine electors.

Ancient Athens appointed most offices by lot, they even had a democracy machine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kleroterion

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#568

To me what this election (as well as the 2016 election) illustrates, is what a poor set of choices we have had. In no sane world should it have been difficult for the Democrats to defeat Donald Trump in 2016. He had no history in political office, and he lost the popular vote to just about the worst candidate the Democrats could have put up. Had the Democrats put up anyone who was less divisive than Hillary Clinton t…

One of the biggest problems we have today is lack of good leaders. Not just in politics but in business and other fields.

Among those holding highest office across the planet - how many can you name that you genuinely love and respect? Maybe a handful? In a sane world, how can people like Trump, Bolsanaro, Duterte etc hold the highest office in their countries?

Business world isn’t that great either.

Somehow we have reached a situation where it is getting harder to find good leaders

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#569
I think we should thank the people who counted the votes, all of them, but especially the ones in those "battle ground" places who had to feel a lot of pressure and had to work in difficult circumstances during a pandemic. Thank you all poll workers, you help make our, sometimes confounding, democracy work.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#570

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

I realize this will sound snarky and/or overly aggressive. However, I'm being entirely serious and can't quickly come up with a better way to phrase this:

How do people with functioning moral compasses come together with the kind of people who see pictures of children in cages and say "America, fuck yeah?"

How do people who want some form of democratic government come together with the kind of people who think it's entirely right and proper for a president to do his best to prevent his political opponents from voting -- by disrupting the postal service, by soliciting the help of multiple hostile foreign governments to smear his opponent, calling for his opponents to be imprisoned without charge, and by attempting to halt vote counting in the courts?

How do people with any kind of respect for the value of human life watch video of the George Floyd killing and come together with the kind of people who watch the video and argue that the police did nothing wrong?

I don't think these divides can be healed. These issues are not matters, like arguments over the size of government, where compromise is both possible and mutually beneficial. Instead, they are moral red lines about which compromise is neither possible or desirable. What the 70-odd million who voted from Trump want out of their country isn't compatible with the basic moral outlook of the 75-odd million people who voted against him.

To take an extreme example, if a bunch of Nazis want to kill 10 million people, 'compromising' by agreeing to let them kill only 5 million people isn't acceptable -- and yet, this is exactly the kind of moral compromise (truly in the other sense of the word) that would be involved in bringing together Trumpist and anti-Trumpist factions.

In addition to the moral divide, there is a reality/gullibility divide between the Trumpist and anti-Trumpist factions. Trumpists believe an awful lot of stuff that is factually untrue. They reject global warming and dismiss the scientific evidence as the product of a Chinese hoax to destroy America. 56% of Republicans now believe in Qanon (an ideological conspiracy theory born out of the argument that Democrats eat babies) to some extent[0]. The overwhelming majority of Trumpists get their news from Fox, a media outlet which spreads more misleading information than accurate information.[1] How does anyone with a commitment to respecting consensus reality reach people who have chosen to live in comforting fantasyland rather than cope with the world as it is?

I don't see any way for the US to get out of this mess without breaking up into multiple countries.

And, to the usual 'downvote to -1' crowd: what part of this analysis is wrong?

[0] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-electio...

[1] https://www.politicususa.com/2015/02/06/fact-checker-finds-6...

Post reply on HN