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Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

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Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#411
To me what this election (as well as the 2016 election) illustrates, is what a poor set of choices we have had.

In no sane world should it have been difficult for the Democrats to defeat Donald Trump in 2016. He had no history in political office, and he lost the popular vote to just about the worst candidate the Democrats could have put up. Had the Democrats put up anyone who was less divisive than Hillary Clinton then we are not where we are today.

Likewise this time around, nobody I have talked to seriously voted for Joe Biden on his own merits. They voted for him because he's not Donald Trump. I have had people tell me they don't care if there is fraud and cheating, it's worth it if Trump is defeated. Put up someone with more genuine appeal and you not only get the "anyone but Trump" vote but you get enough undecided votes that there isn't any room for questioning the result.

We need better candidates who generate real support and appeal other than just not being their opponent. Not sure how to get there.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#412

I've always felt that the Trump presidency served as an effective form of "Chaos Engineering". Regardless of your views of Trump's politics, his administration and method of leadership has exposed a lot of flaws in how our government has been designed and engineered. The postmortem of the last 4 years should be analyzed deeply in order to identify the weak points in the infrastructure of our government in order to ma…

"Trump has been a very effective chaos monkey"

I'm still in shock over how Trump actually managed to get into power. To me, it's still unclear why so many actually voted for him (it woke me up as to how a large percentage of the American electorate actually thinks, and for me that's a worry).

You're right, the chaos Trump's created has seen a paradigm shift in the way politics is carried out everywhere, and that's likely not a bad thing. Often things need to get worse before a wake-up call turns them around for the better. We'll wait and see.

Trump's initial success, the lemming-like addiction to smartphones/Facebook mania, and the swathes and swathes of crazy, mad and irresponsible behaviour I've seen over the last seven or eight months in response to COVID-19 has truly shaken my view of humanity. I used to think we humans were smarter than we actually are.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#413

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

IMO the saddest part of it all is that many people seem to be choosing paths of division. I have different family members who are firmly inside bubbles on both sides of the political spectrum. And all of them are way too comfortable in parroting the divisive language they hear on their favorite network news channels. The terms right/left, red/blue, republican/democrat, conservative/liberal are commonly used with insu…

I am not aboard with this type of "both sides are problematic" thinking.

Only one side denies climate change. Only one side denies medical consensus on vaccines and pandemic prevention techniques. Only one side is okay with mocking a disabled reporter (to pick one egregious example among countless).

Yes, if you're red/republican/conservative/right, you're voting for those things, you're signing off on them.

We don't need to "come together and find common ground" on those issues. We need to figure out how truth and decency lost their footing and slipped off the center stage.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#414

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

I feel like a big reason for the divide is the filter bubbles[1] the public has trapped themselves in. I wanted to force myself to read news from both sides of the divide rather than simply NPR, which was my go-to source for several years. In spite of RSS readers being essentially dead, there are still RSS feeds available. So I mashed up feeds from 10 left and right leaning sources each and created Smash the Bubble[2…

I do this over in the UK, I read a selection of newspapers with different agenda's and if a story catches my interest I go look at wikipedia if it has an article, if it's a "Science says"/"Study says" I go look at the abstract of the study.

It's really hard to get a balance look at the news when everything has it's own slant but it's worth the effort I think to understand the nuance.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#415

Being a centrist, I can definitely understand the desire for more conservative policies, and a rejection of more liberal policies. What has been tough for me personally, though, is to see a person as amoral as Trump get so much support. I DO agree that Trump has done some good things, things that before him neither the left nor the right was willing to do in a substantial way (mainly his forcing a re-evaluation of ou…

I really detest the conservative vs. liberal duality.

Conservatism is not comparable to liberalism. They are not alternatives. It just means a desire to maintain the status quo. The opposite of conservatism is progressivism, not liberalism.

In fact most Republicans in the US are liberal-democrats.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#416

It's amazing. My friends on the left think the only reason for voting trump is racism, and friends on the right think the only reason for voting biden is socialism. Where did all the intellect go? The social dilemma documentary I think is very useful. It feels like social media bubbles are a large component, although of course there have been many contentious elections in the past. Being centrist I can relate to part…

I’ll add one doesn’t have to be a centrist by any means to choose intellect over tribalism. The “left”, the “right”, and the “none of the above” can all achieve it too if they spend less time on media driven depictions and more on deeply exploring the issues.

Centrists have it easier because they naturally see positive aspects of both sides, and that is exactly what is needed. If one can’t put themselves in the shoes of the other side and find a few strong legitimate and logical reasons they can connect with, then they really don’t understand what they are even fighting. You should be able to argue the other side. The reasons are there, and emotion only serves to blind us to them.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#417
post #162

On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.

I really want to know what went wrong with the polls (again). Shy Trump voter doesn’t explain how wrong the polls were about Graham or Collins, outside of even the margin of error. Accurate polls are important to running campaigns and to legislative positions. Selzer got her polls right in Iowa and she posited that she knew the local electorate better than other pollsters so she weighted correctly. Maybe Trafalgar Gr…

The campaigns do not rely on the publicly available poll data for the reasons you pointed out - they need accurate polling in order to make serious decisions about resources. They pay polling companies to get accurate polls and they keep this data private.

The publicly available polls are done for free by polling companies or by news organizations. Unfortunately some of these companies apparently have an agenda to push. So they skew their sample away from what the likely voters are to get the result they want for propaganda purposes.

I think that the rise of Nate Silver has ironically made this situation worse. He advocates taking an average of polls to get a true view of the situation. So if you are skewing you poll to get a certain outcome and you know the poll will be averaged, you need to warp your results even further.

Ok, disclaimer time - I don't have any inside knowledge or real evidence of any of the above. It does seem to fit however. I can't explain why it seems all the distorting is to make the Dems lead seem bigger than it is - that is, why aren't there pollers on the other side of the aisle doing the same thing?

So you'll have to decide for yourself if there is any merit to the above theory.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#418

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

I honestly believe this is just a return to normal for both sides. Conservatism, before being injected with neoliberalism by Thatcher and Reagan, has been about leaving other countries alone while focusing on protecting American interests. Speak softly and carry a big stick. Conservatives have never wanted US hegemony traditionally. Preservation of Bretton Woods has had to be a focus post-WWII in order to combat the…

I believe your second sentence should end as, "has been about focusing on protecting American interests while leaving other [more powerful] countries alone."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_America%E2%80%93United_S...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r...

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#419

To me what this election (as well as the 2016 election) illustrates, is what a poor set of choices we have had. In no sane world should it have been difficult for the Democrats to defeat Donald Trump in 2016. He had no history in political office, and he lost the popular vote to just about the worst candidate the Democrats could have put up. Had the Democrats put up anyone who was less divisive than Hillary Clinton t…

> I have had people tell me they don't care if there is fraud and cheating

This sounds like you suggest there is/was fraud or cheating, which you shouldn't be doing. Not sure if that was what you intended.

I agree with the rest of your post though. Joe here won because of the division in the democratic party. He would have lost to most Republicans. He gathered the most votes ever for obvious reasons. People didn't exactly stay home this year. There has never been more enthusiasm for voting, whether it was for or against something.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#420
Favorite fact about the 2020 election:

Biden not only got more Black votes than Obama, he got a higher percentage of the Democratic Black vote (highest in history, in fact).

IOW, Biden is significantly more popular among Blacks than Obama was in 2008 (or 2012). Amazing!

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