Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#161

Post by lwansbrough » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:01 PM UTC

lovecg wrote: post #124

Can we have a conversation about broader implications of the increasing power in the public discourse of Twitter et al.? I’m no Trump supporter but I do wonder if the tables were turned and Twitter e.g. turned Biden’s page into a wall of hidden tweets because of something it disagreed with (there are enough grievances with Big Tech from both sides). Do people think this is isolated (because Trump is, well, Trump) or…

Trump is making blatant baseless claims and accusations. That gets you a Twitter timeout. Other people receive similar treatment. (Congresswoman Majorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter page is entirely censored because all she does is spread QAnon conspiracy theories.) The solution is to just stop spreading disinformation.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#162

Post by js2 » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

softwaredoug wrote: post #81

On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.

I really want to know what went wrong with the polls (again). Shy Trump voter doesn’t explain how wrong the polls were about Graham or Collins, outside of even the margin of error.

Accurate polls are important to running campaigns and to legislative positions. Selzer got her polls right in Iowa and she posited that she knew the local electorate better than other pollsters so she weighted correctly. Maybe Trafalgar Group has a better method or maybe it just weights GOP voters more heavily (we don’t know, it won’t disclose its methods). Or maybe Trump just breaks polling and the polls will be fine next time. Whatever the reason, I’d like to know, but I’m not sure we ever will.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#163

Post by dorkwood » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

softwaredoug wrote: post #81

On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.

What you're saying is that any result with a non-zero chance of happening should be unsurprising to us, because it was still in the realm of possibility? If that's the case, what use are polls? What makes an election forecast based on polls more valuable than a coin flip?

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#164

Post by mytailorisrich » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

sdfhbdf wrote: post #83

Interesting fact I noticed: If Biden is to take the presidency after the Electoral Collage voted that would make him the oldest president to take office yet, also interesting that wikipedia already marked Biden as president-elect [0]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_Unit...

This almost certainly makes him a one term President. Harris is the one to watch for 2024.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#165

Post by achenatx » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #115

There are a lot of curious statistics about ballot counts in a few swing states, including a record-breaking 90% turn-out in Wisconsin. https://theredelephants.com/there-is-undeniable-mathematical... (Ignore the flame-bait headline, and go right to the charts.)

thy are calculating turnout improperly.

Historical data uses votes/voting eligible population

The 90% number comes from votes/registered voters.

If you calculate turnout the way wisconsin has historically done it, turnout is in line with past elections.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#166

Post by liquidgecka » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

sergiotapia wrote: post #35

How does this election relate to the 2000 election when all media called Gore the winner, but then in December, Bush became the president elect? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/04/the... "On election night, it was unclear who had won, with the electoral votes of the state of Florida still undecided. The returns showed that Bush had won Florida by such a close margin that state law required a rec…

It's more nuanced than that. Gore wanted some select counties recounted, bush wanted no counties recounted, but if there was going to be a rexound then bush wanted the whole state recounted. In the end the SCbrules that the 14th amendment said that including votes with "hanging Chad's" and other clear intent required the whole state to be recounted. Gore conceeded because there wasn't enough time and he believed that a whole state recount wouldn't have favored him in the end. History reflects that it may have been a bad strategy for Gore to try and recount just some counties because he may well have won if he argued for a state wide recount from the beginning.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#167

Post by squidfish » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

lovecg wrote: post #124

Can we have a conversation about broader implications of the increasing power in the public discourse of Twitter et al.? I’m no Trump supporter but I do wonder if the tables were turned and Twitter e.g. turned Biden’s page into a wall of hidden tweets because of something it disagreed with (there are enough grievances with Big Tech from both sides). Do people think this is isolated (because Trump is, well, Trump) or…

Your premise is wrong. Twitter's actions weren't as a result of something it disagreed with. Your comment/thought illustrates one of the REAL root problems ... and that is we are living in a state of two apparent states of "factual reality". Unfortunately this is not possible. There is only one set of facts. Until we can return to that, we will be repeating similar scenarios.

In other words, there is nothing inappropriate about Twitter putting disclaimers on objectively factually incorrect statements.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#168

Post by brown9-2 » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #115

There are a lot of curious statistics about ballot counts in a few swing states, including a record-breaking 90% turn-out in Wisconsin. https://theredelephants.com/there-is-undeniable-mathematical... (Ignore the flame-bait headline, and go right to the charts.)

It’s only curious because you and the author misunderstand the data.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#169

Post by sosodev » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:03 PM UTC

alexashka wrote: post #126

Does anyone feel strange about a 77 year old man being put under this much stress? Politics aside, I would not wish a stressful job on any 77 year old regardless of their health and well being - there are biological realities to being a human. I don't know what motivates these decisions but it seems to me the people of his own party either don't care that there is a non-trivial chance he will die, or they think the g…

I don’t get the age concerns. He’s only 3 years older than Trump.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#170

Post by daenz » Sat, Nov 07, 2020, 7:03 PM UTC

lovecg wrote: post #124

Can we have a conversation about broader implications of the increasing power in the public discourse of Twitter et al.? I’m no Trump supporter but I do wonder if the tables were turned and Twitter e.g. turned Biden’s page into a wall of hidden tweets because of something it disagreed with (there are enough grievances with Big Tech from both sides). Do people think this is isolated (because Trump is, well, Trump) or…

It's not just Twitter, it's the media in general. When I watch CNBC, and they decide to stop airing the President's presser because he's lying, that says to me that the media believes that they should do the thinking for me. That says a lot about how they view the public.

We're building a world where "think for yourself" means "defer your thinking to Trusted Sources™", which is not a world that I support.

EDIT>> s/CNN/CNBC