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Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

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221–230 of 1001 posts

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#221

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

What surprises me is how politicised American teenagers have become nowadays. I'm a (European) Millenial, and when I was 14 neither I nor my peers had any faith or interest in politics. Have a look on Reddit, where most of the population is US-based teenagers: in that place politics has infected every single discussion. /r/The_Donald was a bunch of angry teenagers.

Meh, I must have become a cynical grumpy old person: to me politics has always been a game for rich, old people.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#222

I've always felt that the Trump presidency served as an effective form of "Chaos Engineering". Regardless of your views of Trump's politics, his administration and method of leadership has exposed a lot of flaws in how our government has been designed and engineered. The postmortem of the last 4 years should be analyzed deeply in order to identify the weak points in the infrastructure of our government in order to ma…

Good man must stress test the system. Thats goodwill.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#223
post #162

On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.

I really want to know what went wrong with the polls (again). Shy Trump voter doesn’t explain how wrong the polls were about Graham or Collins, outside of even the margin of error. Accurate polls are important to running campaigns and to legislative positions. Selzer got her polls right in Iowa and she posited that she knew the local electorate better than other pollsters so she weighted correctly. Maybe Trafalgar Gr…

I grew up in a right wing province of Austria and saw that sort of wrong polling throughout my youth — which is why I wasn't surprised the slightest about things going as they did.

It boils down to: a fraction of the electorate will vote for $bigotcandidate but would never ever admit it to anyone outside the voting booth, because they know it is wrong. They will tell people they will vote for $notbigotcandidate, but vote for him nonetheless.

This fraction is not insignificant and you cannot easily represent it in polls without guessing the effect. In my home province it eas consistently around 10 to 15% over a decade.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#224
It's amazing. My friends on the left think the only reason for voting trump is racism, and friends on the right think the only reason for voting biden is socialism.

Where did all the intellect go?

The social dilemma documentary I think is very useful. It feels like social media bubbles are a large component, although of course there have been many contentious elections in the past.

Being centrist I can relate to parts of both sides but my experience is they both dislike centrists.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#226

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

Should just get rid of the two party system and in 20 years there won't be a divide... Of course easier said then done.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#228

I've always felt that the Trump presidency served as an effective form of "Chaos Engineering". Regardless of your views of Trump's politics, his administration and method of leadership has exposed a lot of flaws in how our government has been designed and engineered. The postmortem of the last 4 years should be analyzed deeply in order to identify the weak points in the infrastructure of our government in order to ma…

I worry that the people in charge of fixing the systems are also the ones that benefit most from it being broken. At least with the Chaos Monkey, no one is on the monkey's side.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#229

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

The past four years and this election has exposed some deep problems within American Society. If about 47% of your country was happy to kill democracy and reward immoral behaviour just to retain power, often justified by religious beliefs... And Trump is not gone yet... Who knows what the Republicans will do with the stacked Supreme Court...

> If about 47% of your country was happy to kill democracy

If you think half the country wants to rewrite the Constitution and remove democracy...I'm not really sure what to say.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#230

On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.

What you're saying is that any result with a non-zero chance of happening should be unsurprising to us, because it was still in the realm of possibility? If that's the case, what use are polls? What makes an election forecast based on polls more valuable than a coin flip?

Polls are astrological race science, and the reason you'll never be able to convince anyone of this is adequately covered by the book When Prophecy Fails. I've come to think that their bias is only slightly ideological, but instead springs more from a self-serving impulse to mirror the current beliefs of the audience most likely to believe in polls i.e. people overly impressed by credentials. They enjoy the sheer volume of numbers, rather than their actual usefulness.

Alternate phrasings of identical questions asked in polls creates differences in outcome vastly larger than the effects they claim to detect. Somehow Nate Silver managed to get rich by selling synthetic CDOs of arbitrary polls (to people with his identical political outlook.)

The only real poll is to ask the same questions, in the same way, as the ballot sheet does. Ideally these should be asked as people are entering or leaving the voting booth, and people should be paid for their responses, in order not to bias yourself towards bored loudmouths with nothing to do. This would be good for accuracy, not for usefulness in anything but generating a suspicion of election fraud.

Instead, they're trying to figure out what percentage of black people go to the polls in Missouri, and pretending that the self-selected black voter has more in common politically with the general black phone answerer than the Missouri voter. Relying on that arbitrary assumption is the entire basis of their field.

edit: I haven't read https://site.pennpress.org/aha-2021/9780812250046/race-and-t... yet, but I heard an interview with the author around the time that it came out, and it's another hidden history of a field that has completely unearned legitimacy. "Political Science" might largely be considered an outgrowth of scientific racism.

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