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Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

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Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#101

Post by tptacek »

sergiotapia wrote: post #35

How does this election relate to the 2000 election when all media called Gore the winner, but then in December, Bush became the president elect? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/04/the... "On election night, it was unclear who had won, with the electoral votes of the state of Florida still undecided. The returns showed that Bush had won Florida by such a close margin that state law required a rec…

The big difference is that 2000 revolved around a disputed recount, in a race with a margin of fewer than 1000 votes. There will be recounts in this race, but:

(1) There's no reason to believe they'll change the outcome much (recounts in 2016 didn't) --- states have learned since 2000 and have moved away from faulty ballot designs.

(2) The recounts will be occurring in multiple states, and Trump needs to sweep them.

(3) The margins in those recounts are much bigger than in 2000 --- tens of thousands of votes, not hundreds.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#102

Post by softwaredoug »

fullshark wrote: post #93
softwaredoug wrote: post #81

On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.

What % chance did the polls/forecast give the republicans gaining seats in the house (I actually don't know but from reading pundits it sounds like very little)? I think the interesting thing this cycle is betting markets were pretty much also at odds with pollsters/forecasts on Trump's chances, basically baking in a pro-trump (R?) polling error. Perhaps there really are issues with some of these forecasts / uncertai…

I think I only saw projections for Dems retaining control (which was high). I think GOP gaining seats was always in the cards.

I think it’s interesting too how some of the qualitative predictions (like Sabatos crystal ball) were pretty close to the outcome in the Pres race.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#103

Post by wolco2 »

bkovacev wrote: post #53

As someone who is not that much into politics but receives salary in US dollar - what does Biden win mean for the US economy and the dollar?

Closer relations with China. Reverse on immigration. US attracts/accepts more foreign workers. Probably a raising dollar and lower stockmarket. The high taxes might see some flee high tax states/regions (living in New York city making 400k will cost you 60%+ of income tax) to lower cost states or out of country or remote.

Overall remote work should increase with a different lockdown tone at the federal level creating uncertainy in commercial real estate.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#104

Post by junon »

sdfhbdf wrote: post #83

Interesting fact I noticed: If Biden is to take the presidency after the Electoral Collage voted that would make him the oldest president to take office yet, also interesting that wikipedia already marked Biden as president-elect [0]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_Unit...

Futher, Donald Trump's wikipedia page is currently fully-locked, a rare classification for a wikipedia page. Biden is currently only under extended-confirmed protection.

Of course this is necessary but one of my favorite pasttimes is to look at vandalism changes in the history, and I would have loved to see some of the stuff people came up with on either side.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#105

Post by Kye »

sdfhbdf wrote: post #83

Interesting fact I noticed: If Biden is to take the presidency after the Electoral Collage voted that would make him the oldest president to take office yet, also interesting that wikipedia already marked Biden as president-elect [0]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_Unit...

Just to add for the curious, the wiki on "President-elect of the United States" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President-elect_of_the_United_...

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#108

Post by Svip »

rixrax wrote: post #58

I am holding my breath until Jan 6th at least when electoral college votes: Url: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 The Electoral College: A 2020 Presidential Election Timeline

The Electoral College votes on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December; so the 14th. What happens on 6 January is Congress ratifying the electoral votes.

And it's the state legislatures that effectively elect their state's electors, which needs to be done before 14 December.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#109

Post by GavinMcG »

auganov wrote: post #91

FTX [0] has President Trump's chances at remaining President in February 2021 at a little over 10%. Numerous legal pathways remain for President Trump to win. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB

That is patently false. There are no allegations at any level that would legally alter the election results.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#110

Post by otterley »

drocer88 wrote: post #86

Shouldn't we wait for the states to go through , in some cases, mandatory recounts and certification of the results and then the actual electoral college vote after any legal appeals?

History has shown that recounts rarely change anything beyond a few hundredths of a percent, if that (see: Florida 2000). The margins are wide enough, and there are enough states that tipped blue, that it is extremely unlikely as a matter of pure mathematics that there would be any change in outcome -- even if Trump's fans were granted every legal challenge on their wishlist.

Courts are generally loath to grant relief when the outcome wouldn't change. ("Void as moot.")

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