FTX [0] has President Trump's chances at remaining President in February 2021 at a little over 10%. Numerous legal pathways remain for President Trump to win.
Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
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Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#92He hasn’t been certified as the winner of even a single state yet. Trump called the bluff, soon the only vote that matters will be ACB’s.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#93On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.
What % chance did the polls/forecast give the republicans gaining seats in the house (I actually don't know but from reading pundits it sounds like very little)? I think the interesting thing this cycle is betting markets were pretty much also at odds with pollsters/forecasts on Trump's chances, basically baking in a pro-trump (R?) polling error. Perhaps there really are issues with some of these forecasts / uncertainty estimates?
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#94If Republicans keep the Senate Biden won't accomplish much of his agenda. Especially with Mitch Mcconnell's uncompromising approach expect gridlock, government shutdowns, probably a constitutional crisis or two, and a complete inability to respond to any further crises.
Nah, he and Harris are senate insiders who will work relationships across the aisle and get things done.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#95Not saying Biden didn’t win, but is it really the media that makes the call?
Donald Trump was called the Republican nominee for months before the convention even though you could say that was the "media" making the call. In fact, he didn't become the nominee until the vote at the convention was certified.
But it is completely irrelevant. Biden will be the next president.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#96What I’m really curious about now is how the GOP are going to position itself wrt Trump and his rhetoric and claims when he’s no longer in office.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#97dang's comment from 4 years ago on this subject (Trump's election win): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12910929
Anyone else get weird vibes reading that? If feels like that comment was written yesterday and an eternity ago. It's feels like 4 years just passed by in a jiffy but at the same time, it felt like it was the longest 4 years of my life.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#98I am holding my breath until Jan 6th at least when electoral college votes: Url: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 The Electoral College: A 2020 Presidential Election Timeline
Dec 14th is a better deadline to watch. That's the date at which a state's "Certificates of Ascertainment" is due. If they miss this deadline, the electorate votes are forfeited.
Keep in mind some of these swing states don't have strong one-party control of the state legislatures, and there could be a strong appetite for a recount or closer scrutiny of the ballots.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#99Shouldn't we wait for the states to go through , in some cases, mandatory recounts and certification of the results and then the actual electoral college vote after any legal appeals?
No no that’s why you got downvoted. The media decides the election, not the Electoral College.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#100He hasn’t been certified as the winner of even a single state yet. Trump called the bluff, soon the only vote that matters will be ACB’s.
News organizations have always made the call before the vote was certified (hence the famous "Dewey Defeats Truman").