121–130 of 284 posts
Apparently it is relatively easy to control this virus during the summer, and almost impossible during the winter. Australia's summer seems to be helping it a good deal, even as winter in the northern hemisphere is making things much worse.
Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…
Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. Congrats on getting to the magic 0! I know it can seem weird that Europe didn't lock down over the summer, but here we mostly use Health care capacity, not active cases, as t…
And while mainland Europe is not a "relatively small Island", the UK surely is...
Does anyone have a plan to get the world out of COVID? Previous pandemics such as SARS/MERS were contained but had no vaccine, Spanish Flu wasn't contained but there were lasting antibodies (up to 90 years![0]). For COVID all we've been doing is "hoping for a vaccine" which by all accounts[1] will only be 70% effective and will likely require boosters. The world is on a roller coaster of going into and out of lockdown (see Europe this week instituting stay at home orders again) and all the while _there is no plan_ for the world to get past this.
So I ask again, does anyone have any kind of plan to get the world back to normal? In Melbourne, Australia, people are wearing masks and "buying time for a vaccine" but when it comes it won't help the at-risk portions of the population. In the US there seems to be no plan at all. Nowhere in the world has anyone come up with a pathway forward to return the human race to a way of life similar to where we were at in 2019.
So, given there are so many people in here skilled at decomposing problems and articulating effective solutions, and given there most likely won't be a >70% effective vaccine in the next 2-3 years, what is the way forward for the world? Or are we to be mired in an endless cycle of lockdown/open/lockdown for as far as the eye can see.
[0]: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080817223642.h... [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/covid-vaccines.htm...
Isn't that a temporary win?
Once a person enters the country with the virus its back on.
Are we pattong our selves on the back too soon for these kinds of wins?
The modern news cycle is so short sighted that the media makes money off this kind of thing without reporting the full picture.
Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…
Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. Congrats on getting to the magic 0! I know it can seem weird that Europe didn't lock down over the summer, but here we mostly use Health care capacity, not active cases, as t…
Driving case counts down to zero isn't useless since any outbreaks that flare up again due to gaps in border security will be localized and can be kept in check with localized lockdowns instead of shutting down the whole country.
Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…
Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. Congrats on getting to the magic 0! I know it can seem weird that Europe didn't lock down over the summer, but here we mostly use Health care capacity, not active cases, as t…
We have had 0 cases for over 2 months.
You should stop with the "it is only viable in a small island in a remote corner of the planet" line of argument because it doesn't hold much water in my mind.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Knocked on the head...for now. All it takes is for one person to start the virus up again and the entire country has to go back into lock down. They're playing a permanant game of country wide lockdown whack a mole with the virus. No one can ever get comfortable again until herd immunity is reached which lockdowns delay.
We all know that we are in "COVID normal" not "normal" until there is a widely delivered effective vaccine. However, it's much easier to test, trace and isolate small outbreaks ("whack a mole") than if its widely spread and uncontrolled. Recently we had a single case of a school child that went back to school before they should have. Two days after he tested positive, the following happened: * The school was closed a…
People go to the grocery store and come into contact with hundreds of people in an hour.
Melbourne resident here. We're feeling pretty relieved to be getting these results and excited to be tentatively emerging from nearly four months of fairly strict lockdown. Much is being made of the fact that back in August when Melbourne was reporting over 700 new cases on some days, UK and France were reporting similar new case numbers, yet we are now getting zeroes and those countries have out-of-control spread. A…
You mention weather here but, having followed the news, is clear that the primary factor in Melbourne’s outbreak was breaches in quarantine, so much so that there was a government investigation into it. Weather seemed to have very little to do with it.
There’s really no comparison with Melbourne winters and those in most of North America or Europe either. Melbourne climate is pretty mild all things considered.
You seem to be pinning this on poorly trained and paid security guards but there’s credible evidence that there were incidents on security having relationships with those in quarantine (and the responsibility for that falls on both parties). Plus the quarantine didn’t seem to be that strict. People leaving to go out shopping, that sort of thing. Again those in quarantine should also know better.
So they achieved 0 infections without herd immunity via natural means or a vaccine? Isn't that a temporary win? Once a person enters the country with the virus its back on. Are we pattong our selves on the back too soon for these kinds of wins? The modern news cycle is so short sighted that the media makes money off this kind of thing without reporting the full picture.
To those citing weather as a likely influence, I'm not sure I agree. Given the graph provided by the linked site, it looks like cases started really dipping in late August. August and September are still bloody cold in Melbourne, where most of the cases have been recorded. Additionally, Australia is heading into a La Nina summer, generally characterised by a slower onset of warmer weather and greater average rainfall…
It's also pretty easy to find counterexamples. For example, COVID numbers in India started exploding in May, which is also the hottest month throughout most of the country.
Don't know if this trend holds outside the US.