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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#481

Post by fidelramos »

throw0101a wrote: post #446
fidelramos wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yay, free market. Can anyone buy some land and build whatever they want on it, like massive apartment buildings? If the answer is no, how can you claim there is a free market? I think the problem is clearly on the heavy regulations, licensing and zoning that keep companies from building.

> Can anyone buy some land and build whatever they want on it, like massive apartment buildings? They probably can, but The Market™ may give better ROI to (e.g.) condominiums so who'd want to do it? With apartments you have to do things like put up with tenants and such, and who wants to do that? With condos you sell the units, create a condo corporation, and then walk away with your money once it's constructed and n…

> Why build rental units for poor people when you can sell to oligarchs who want an asset to park their money in?

As with everything else in a capilistic economy: because there is profit to be made.

Same as we have very expensive top-of-the-line smartphones and very cheap but functional ones, a truly free market housing economy would provide cheap housing for the poor. The reason why we don't see that happening is because of all the regulations that increase the cost of building, making such companies inviable.

Poor people would benefit the most from truly free markets, if we care about them we should be asking for less government intervention, not more.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#482

Post by TrackerFF »

christiansakai wrote: post #44

How relevant is this to average people? I.e., seems this only affect the rich?

If anything, average people are affected more.

When REITs and the like lose money, at least those losses are tied up to their company. Worst case, they go bust - but their owners aren't personally responsible for the losses.

Now, imagine being some average tech-Joe that bought a house for $2M last year (almost entirely on a mortgage), the job market goes to sh!t, and subsequently the housing market follows after. You're forced to sell, and take a 20% loss - selling it for $1.6M

You're now $400k in the red.

That's a massive debt to carry around, if you're not able to continue in some high-earning job.

This is something you (unfortunately) see in cities that are heavily affected by boom/bust cycles.

Price volatility can be a real killer if you've stretched your resources to the max, even if the market rebounds. Solvency can be a killer.

(But as for why this could affect average people - I'd imagine there being some correlation between business real-estate, and private real-estate. The general real-estate market has a big market psychology component to it. So hysteria in one market could very well transition to another)

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#484

Post by dakna »

javajosh wrote: post #94
OpticalWindows wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im suddenly having a vision of a corporate housing commune. Starting a hydroponics lab in the middle of office space /s

So, I know you were joking but this idea has more than a little validity. In my vision, it would be a small group of families that would meditate daily together, and collaborate on chores and child-raising, and (this part I haven't figured out yet) work on the same project, or perhaps WFH on software-like things. Ideally there would be daycare, gardening, and some sort of exercise (yoga) involved. I mean, yeah its ea…

What you describe is basically an intentional community with a revenue stream from a software product. Something I'm interested in, but unsure how to make it work.

There are intentional communities that support themselves with their own, often agriculture based, products sold on the open market. Plus the usual homesteading.

The skills needed for this kind of work are not highly specialized and in general not well paid, therefore levelling the playing field for everyone in the group.

I think the opportunity cost for IT professionals building a SaaS to support the community is a lot higher, and while I would love to see that work, the chances of key community members dropping out to make more money for themselves is fairly high. I'm not sure if a simple time based system for everyone involved is fair, given the high upfront investment to get the skills needed for IT work.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#485

Post by paul_f »

jayd16 wrote: post #330
paul_f wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A majority of tech workers in California are from somewhere else, who came to California for the opportunity. They know what it's like back home. And yes, especially the 30-somethings with kids, they're leaving

I'm not saying there isn't some desire among employees but most companies do not want to pay taxes in 50 states. I don't think the vast majority of workers can simply move without changing employers.

In my experience, most companies use ADP or Paychex or similar, they rarely roll their own solution. This is a non issue IMO.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#486

Post by decwakeboarder »

prostoalex wrote: post #457
kristopolous wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other week I was on real estate sites and I saw a bunch of "apartments" in SOMA that just looked like offices with some hastily slapped on anemities, as if there was some "wink wink nudge nudge" going on and they had to call the place an "apartment" for some city ordinance but everyone knew it was an office. However, I realized it was exactly the opposite. These people were taking their office spaces and desperat…

How does that work? Typical office space typically has no kitchens, offers limited restrooms (and showers are still rare), has no noise isolation for someone who wants to watch TV, listen to the music, or just snore away into the sunrise. Outside of some makeshift co-living shelter-like concept it does not seem that convertible.

Office space that is designed to be leased is also designed to be (relatively) easy to reconfigure.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#487

Post by city41 »

jayd16 wrote: post #194
InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

I can't help but think this take is projecting a bit too much. Inundated? How so? What are you seeing? Tax benefits, work-life balance and bigger homes? Really, you can see these changes in the last 6 months of a pandemic? I could be wrong but I don't think the majority of employers are letting employees change states (and state taxes). WFH does not mean work from anywhere, especially tax-wise. This all sounds plausi…

And if anyone reading this is thinking of doing this, really research the taxes. For example if your company does not have an office presence in the state you move to, you will pay state taxes for both that state and California. If your company gave you any stock related compensation, California wants a piece of those too, even after you've moved.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#488

Post by throw0101a »

fidelramos wrote: post #481
throw0101a wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can anyone buy some land and build whatever they want on it, like massive apartment buildings? They probably can, but The Market™ may give better ROI to (e.g.) condominiums so who'd want to do it? With apartments you have to do things like put up with tenants and such, and who wants to do that? With condos you sell the units, create a condo corporation, and then walk away with your money once it's constructed and n…

> Why build rental units for poor people when you can sell to oligarchs who want an asset to park their money in? As with everything else in a capilistic economy: because there is profit to be made. Same as we have very expensive top-of-the-line smartphones and very cheap but functional ones, a truly free market housing economy would provide cheap housing for the poor. The reason why we don't see that happening is be…

> As with everything else in a capilistic economy: because there is profit to be made.

As someone who lives in Toronto, Canada where there's a lot of condo construction, and little-to-no purpose-built rental construction, the "capitalist economy" has decided that rentals are generally not worth it.

At least when it comes to builders: plenty of people are buying condos and renting them out instead of living in them, but apartment blocks seem to be not worth the effort.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#489

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

meerita wrote: post #480
disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll give you Venezuela and Argentina, but can you clarify how Spain matches your argument?

Between the socialists years, 2006-2010 they've spent so much in consume programs that we will be paying for that many years. We're lucky that we have euro, but the proof is unemployment is hight as crazy every year and there are no signs of investement. People also changed mindset from savings to spendings, and now they are demanding more money from the goverment for anything. Please check also Chile, they had coupl…

That's a weird argument, given that they appear to have run a primary surplus in those years: https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/government-budget

I agree that there was a massive mal-investment in much of the Eurozone post 2002 (I'm irish and remember this well), but I don't really see how this maps to socialism/socialists. Can you clarify?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#490

Post by bluetonium »

hindsightbias wrote: post #187
pdx6 wrote: post #143

For those that think this is the end of San Francisco, take a deep breath. The empty office space and worries about expiring leases only applies to companies that can't work remote. SF has a huge service industry, swaths of culture, and some pretty nice weather. A bunch of chair warmers and button pushers moved to Tahoe or Mazzula, so what? It is nice to have a huge house and some land, but city living is are a trade…

Eras like this are about survivors. Anyone who was here in 2009 would prefer that era to dot-com 1999 or FAANG 2019. So as far as they’re concerned - faster, please. Consider this a test whether you are a Californian or San Franciscan or someone from somewhere else here to rake in the google dollars. If the latter, I’m sorry your demands were not accomodated. Enjoy the farm in upstate NY or the frowns you get in Taho…

REAL San Franciscans love tents on downtown sidewalks.

Wish I could be as cool as them.

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