Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

socketsite.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

371–380 of 527 posts

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#371

Post by thatguy0900 »

paul_f wrote: post #358
thatguy0900 wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I read about them moving to states like Texas in numbers, all I can think is that they will inevitably try to take these same policies with them when they find out wherever they moved too isn't quite liberal enough

I don't know, but my guess is the people that moved didn't like the policies of the state they left

Seems like a large portion of people in this thread at least are more concerned about lowering cost of living while still being in a large active city than about local polotics, even if those things do tie together

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#372

Post by rhizome »

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

I tell you what: if that comes to pass and I'm working remote, I'm looking forward to getting a sweet lease on a 150-200 sqft solo office with a nice view.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#373

Post by throwmea122 »

rsync wrote: post #365
dannyw wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think everyone who lives in San Fran wants do life in San Fran. They’re here because that’s where the jobs are.

"I don’t think everyone who lives in San Fran wants do life in San Fran. They’re here because that’s where the jobs are." I live in San Francisco and I want to do life here. I moved here very specifically to set down roots and raise my family in the SFBA. I have the option to live anywhere in the world and I believe that the confluence of the west marin national seashore and the city center of San Francisco is unique…

Sure some people live in SF because they want to be here. Others live (in my case lived) there because of a job. I don't care for SF the city, but I do like the greater bay area.

Having said that, your driving time estimates are incredible optimistic. Squaw is not 3 hours from SF, not even with no traffic (this scenario doesn't really exist) and good weather. Getting anywhere in the bay area also takes significantly longer due to traffic which is pretty bad most of the day.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#374

Post by Eric_WVGG »

mancerayder wrote: post #42

Are Progressive mayorships in places like SF and New York the right mentality at the right time when it's an economic catastrophe to be averted? The Mayor of NYC said a few days ago, 'Midtown is not the center of the universe' when asked about sudden new squalor and economic catastrophe. Unfortunately it is the center of jobs for the region. Is SF run like this as well?

You need to pause and explain to me how Bill de Blasio is “progressive.” Being a registered Democrat means nothing.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#375

Post by throwmea122 »

andrewxdiamond wrote: post #3

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

It would be fitting if they just convert them into homeless shelters. SF could officially be in the business of housing the nation's homeless.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#376

Post by downrightmike »

temp667 wrote: post #363
part1of2 wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet prices just go up store-wide to cover, and even higher on items where the cost is more asymmetric (prescriptions)

For sure. But pharmacy is very competitive and at some point it's a losing game. For example - Walgreen runs about about a 4% margin and profit runs about $4 billion (all very rough numbers). The problem with theft is that its a total loss so it can really chop into margins - these are shelves that you build a supply chain and staff to stock and then get zero. Someone walks in with a backpack and just fills it full (…

Just push customers to get mail delivery, no need for a store.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#377

Post by nrp »

throwmea122 wrote: post #368
pdx6 wrote: post #143

For those that think this is the end of San Francisco, take a deep breath. The empty office space and worries about expiring leases only applies to companies that can't work remote. SF has a huge service industry, swaths of culture, and some pretty nice weather. A bunch of chair warmers and button pushers moved to Tahoe or Mazzula, so what? It is nice to have a huge house and some land, but city living is are a trade…

My bigger concern with SF is property crime and homelessness. I don't feel safe in this city. It's been getting worse every year and there is no end in sight. Major conferences already relocated because of it.

Interestingly, the "visible homeless" population has decreased substantially over the course of the pandemic, and is now below pre-pandemic levels: https://missionlocal.org/2020/10/citys-homeless-tent-count-d...

The pandemic has managed to cure a few of San Francisco's ills. Rents and real estate prices are trending down towards sanity, the city/county government has managed to get a large number of homeless folks situated indoors, restaurants are getting outdoor seating space, and initiatives to massively reduce the amount of red tape small business have to work through are getting fast tracked. All that, and the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths are extremely low relative to the rest of the country, even as businesses re-open. The post-pandemic San Francisco has a decent shot at being a livable city again (though the property crime problem isn't yet on a path to being solved).

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#378

Post by jessedhillon »

sidlls wrote: post #333
flurben wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seriously think that everywhere in America with reasonable tax rates is just getting fiscal transfers from SF?

Define "reasonable tax rates." I'll tell you this: states where there are very low taxes (e.g. no income taxes, low sales/other taxes) tend to be net takers when it comes to federal dollars: they get more from the federal government than their populations pay in taxes. States like California are net givers: their populations send more to the federal government than they get back. As a bonus irony, the "taker" states…

I'm taking a look here (visualization is crummy, but there's a list below) https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/donor-state...

There are only ten donor states in 2019:

    - Connecticut (- $4,000)
    - New Jersey (- $2,368)
    - Massachusetts (- $2,343)
    - New York (- $1,792)
    - North Dakota (- $720)
    - Illinois (- $364)
    - New Hampshire (- $234)
    - Washington (- $184)
    - Nebraska (- $164)
    - Colorado (- $95)
And these are the top taker states:

    - Virginia ($10,301)
    - Kentucky ($9,145)
    - New Mexico ($8,692)
    - West Virginia ($7,283)
    - Alaska ($7,048)
    - Mississippi ($6,880)
    - Alabama ($6,694)
    - Maryland ($6,035)
    - Maine ($5,572)
    - Hawaii ($5,270)
The majority of those top taker states are under Democratic Party control, and 40 out of 50 states are takers of federal dollars, so I don't see much evidence for your point.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#379

Post by greesil »

clams wrote: post #348
sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

I would love real estate markets to crash in SF and NYC. My body is fucking ready.

Commerical real estate != residential, I wouldn't get your hopes up unless demand drops, which it totally could.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#380

Post by [deleted] »

jeffbee wrote: post #279
arkis22 wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes. you are surely more correct that covid has had zero effect on net domestic migration out of SF. a simple google search shows figures. there are lots. rent data is the simplest.

So, you don't have any data? Just checking that we're in total agreement here. This is exactly why I've long said that the only course that should be required of every college major (or ideally every high school graduate) is basic accounting. The number of things in a system is the cumulative result of all inflows and outflows. The population of a city can fall without any kind of change in the outflow process. By th…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN