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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#261

Post by threeqhan »

Thorrez wrote: post #209
threeqhan wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like they're half as useful to the business rather than their jobs are twice as hard

Effort and business utility are not necessarily linear. For argument's sake let's assume they are. A manager affects the productivity of all of his/her reports. Let's say a manager has 10 reports. If the manager stops working twice as hard, maybe all of the manager's reports would become 1/2 as productive. That means the manager's 2x work provides the same business utility as 5 ICs.

This assumes that manager productivity is positively correlated with their reports' productivity.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#262

Post by greenyoda »

donclark wrote: post #118

Related: NYC commercial mortgage backed securities are going to crash https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RX1uzbAOnXc Is it possible to short mortgage backed securities?

As someone living in NYC, his explanation of how NYC's tax revenue is heavily dependent on hugely inflated real estate valuations was pretty scary.

Here's the WSJ article he was referring to: https://archive.is/QjPNf

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#263

Post by jeffbee »

arkis22 wrote: post #259
jeffbee wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades There is no data underlying this statement whatsoever.

I mean... this is obviously incorrect?

If you are right then it would by indicated by some data I could read, yes? Show me anything which indicates that the net domestic migration out of SF (proper or metro area) has increased during 2020.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#264

Post by scarmig »

SilasX wrote: post #260
sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.

The central component of the American Dream is that, once you're rich, the government will do everything in its power to make sure you remain rich.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#265

Post by KenoFischer »

SilasX wrote: post #260
sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.

The Fed does a lot of macroeconomic modeling and forecasting, so their analysts being interested in the effects of the pandemic on particular sectors of the economy doesn't sound particularly unusual (I have no insight in the the particular circumstances referenced in the parent comment of course).

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#266

Post by dmurray »

zeristor wrote: post #220
FreakyT wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That actually seems like a really good idea — I’d love to see more housing in the “downtown core” areas of SF, which are like 95% office space.

It depends, and whilst San Francisco can’t be compared to Harlow there can be some tragic ramifications: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-47720887

This definitely doesn't sound like a consequence of adding extra supply to the market in desirable downtown locations.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#267

Post by Thorrez »

threeqhan wrote: post #261
Thorrez wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Effort and business utility are not necessarily linear. For argument's sake let's assume they are. A manager affects the productivity of all of his/her reports. Let's say a manager has 10 reports. If the manager stops working twice as hard, maybe all of the manager's reports would become 1/2 as productive. That means the manager's 2x work provides the same business utility as 5 ICs.

This assumes that manager productivity is positively correlated with their reports' productivity.

It's hard for me to think about how else to measure manager productivity. Managers don't usually submit code themselves.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#268

Post by vmception »

lacker wrote: post #222
digitaltrees wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…

The author is referring to the rise of crime and homelessness in San Francisco. The Walgreens comment is referring to how several Walgreens are shutting down in San Francisco, partially because they have been unable to stop shoplifting. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Another-San-Francisco... Many San Francisco residents are very opposed to any language that smacks of anti-homelessness - arguably anti-homeless…

Thanks for elaborating, for others. Yes, the residents enable the squalor and I have no better solutions to offer them, but I am able perceive that the collective opinion of the residents is a byproduct of a largely apathetic transient population that masquerades as a progressive movement, while not needing to live with the results.

I can recognize that it is incapable of creating a more collaborative and sanitary urban environment, and that's just not worth paying for.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#269

Post by arkis22 »

jeffbee wrote: post #263
arkis22 wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean... this is obviously incorrect?

If you are right then it would by indicated by some data I could read, yes? Show me anything which indicates that the net domestic migration out of SF (proper or metro area) has increased during 2020.

yes. you are surely more correct that covid has had zero effect on net domestic migration out of SF.

a simple google search shows figures. there are lots. rent data is the simplest.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#270

Post by dna_polymerase »

SilasX wrote: post #260
sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

At risk of extreme naivety, why do failed real estate investments merit Fed support and attention? I thought they were just for maintaining a sound dollar and liquidity and the financial system, not charity for real estate kings.

Some of the largest investors in commercial real estate are private equity and other investment funds that invest on behalf of the largest pension funds in the US. A commercial real estate blood bath could also result in a blood bath for the elderly and those who will retire in the near future. But also it could set off a chain reaction.
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