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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#171

Post by generalpf »

AdamJacobMuller wrote: post #140
sebmellen wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, things will move on, and I am not (personally) all that worried. Nor are the creditors who can afford to eat a loss. My concern is more about the ripple effects. Many low-skilled workers rely on service work, and servicing corporate real estate is a real industry (janitorial services, managerial duties, parking lot attendants, plumbers, even construction). They are already having a pretty hard time of i…

The same effects which will drop commercial office real estate prices will drop commercial residential prices and thus their rents. And, if it doesn't, in the absence of work they always have the option of moving somewhere with a more attractive income to cost of living ratio. Much harder for a company to up and move than an individual or a family.

Someone who is just getting by doesn’t have the option of simply moving their family.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#172

Post by FreakyT »

kristopolous wrote: post #158
sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

The other week I was on real estate sites and I saw a bunch of "apartments" in SOMA that just looked like offices with some hastily slapped on anemities, as if there was some "wink wink nudge nudge" going on and they had to call the place an "apartment" for some city ordinance but everyone knew it was an office. However, I realized it was exactly the opposite. These people were taking their office spaces and desperat…

That actually seems like a really good idea — I’d love to see more housing in the “downtown core” areas of SF, which are like 95% office space.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#174

Post by [deleted] »

rossdavidh wrote: post #138
albacur wrote: post #91

I'm excited by the idea of permanent remote work and moving somewhere more affordable. I moved to SF relatively late in my career, and only realized afterwards that I have nowhere near enough savings to own a nice home here. But most of my coworkers seem eager to return to the office. They miss the office environment, the perks and catered meals, and the socialization. And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in…

I agree, but with a caveat. The _very_ top execs of large organizations (Google, Facebook, etc.) may be anxious to get to a lower-salary environment, and remote work may be a necessary part of that. If they are determined to move to a structure where they don't have to pay SV salaries, they might overrule their middle-management and extend remote work in order to facilitate that.

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#175

Post by onecommentman »

meddlepal wrote: post #164
treis wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, we converted factories and warehouses. I'm sure we can convert office space as well. It's just a matter of cost/benefit.

Which is more or less what I said in my comment...

“in a lot of cases this is virtually impossible” is not more or less the same as “we’ve done it before...we’ll do it again”

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#176

Post by albacur »

brian_cunnie wrote: post #144
flurben wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, linguistically that comment borders on gibberish.

The empty Walgreen's shelves can be seen at the Walgreen's on the corner of Eddy and Van Ness Streets. People come in & take whatever they want because they know Walgreen's has a "no contact" policy (they won't stop you). They shoplift everything. And Walgreen's doesn't rush to re-stock. There are a lot of homeless and drug addicts in that area, but I don't know firsthand if they're the shoplifters. I spoke to a poli…

> The empty Walgreen's shelves can be seen at the Walgreen's on the corner of Eddy and Van Ness Streets.

It won't be a problem much longer – that location is going to be shut down permanently.

Shoplifting has been a problem here even before Covid. Shoplifters know the law (<$950 is a misdemeanor), they know the police likely won't make an arrest, and even if they did, they know our DA likely won't prosecute.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#177

Post by gumby »

This will (proportionately)happen to downtown Palo Alto when Palantir moves out, though that will probably be good for downtown. They had too large a percentage of the available real estate.

The city council ought to find a way to stop this kind of monoculture though I’m not sure how it could reasonably be done.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#178

Post by ps747 »

dannyw wrote: post #148
pdx6 wrote: post #143

For those that think this is the end of San Francisco, take a deep breath. The empty office space and worries about expiring leases only applies to companies that can't work remote. SF has a huge service industry, swaths of culture, and some pretty nice weather. A bunch of chair warmers and button pushers moved to Tahoe or Mazzula, so what? It is nice to have a huge house and some land, but city living is are a trade…

I don’t think everyone who lives in San Fran wants do life in San Fran. They’re here because that’s where the jobs are.

Disagree. I love SF. The Symphony is phenomenal, love the Opera and Ballet too.

The parks are beautiful, and you can get out into nature in about an hour's drive.

Living in SF is expensive, but salaries are high too. Especially if you're in tech like most on HN, you can have a very nice lifestyle here.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#179

Post by mattj »

meddlepal wrote: post #156
jelling wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in NYC and lots of friends have left town for upstate New York or similar places. But I'm waiting to see how great they think these places are after they have eaten at the same 5 restaurants for a year. And once live culture returns to NYC and other places, how will they feel then? Of course, the other way to look at the de-campers is that they were going to move to the burbs inevitably. Which good for them, b…

I feel like comments like this often lack perspective. Upstate NY, especially Buffalo and Rochester have plenty of things to do in them and far more than five restaurants. It strikes a nerve with me because in Massachusetts a similar sentiment is expressed by Boston-Cambridge folks about Lowell, Worcester, and other periphery cities. Its simply mot true that these places are devoid of culture snd cuisine and in the a…

I think the grandparent is probably referring to upstate in the Hudson Valley sense of the phrase. Plenty of cute towns, but Hudson / Woodstock / Kingston are definitely in the O(tens) of great restaurant options, comparable to a slice of any single Manhattan / Brooklyn neighborhood most tech people live in.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#180

Post by nwatson »

nicktrocado wrote: post #75
InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

Which state? I thinking of moving and would like to know good states to move into

North Carolina is decent. Made the move in 2013, been working for SF Bay Area companies since. Cost of living is very low, kids' education is decent (impacted by COVID-19 currently, of course).
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