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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#151

Post by drdeadringer »

vmception wrote: post #24

Still not moving back. Seeing those empty Walgreens shelves was it for me. Even the social programs and tolerance of the squalor is not that real, it is simply that the transient population is not affected: students and programmers. The same population that just left. I appreciate all the optimism for San Francisco but it just seems to lack context from the mid-atlantic cities that are carcasses of an industrial era…

> NextDoor

That place was a nice idea just like Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn were.

NextDoor worked out just as well as the rest of them.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#152

Post by threeqhan »

steelframe wrote: post #124
albacur wrote: post #91

I'm excited by the idea of permanent remote work and moving somewhere more affordable. I moved to SF relatively late in my career, and only realized afterwards that I have nowhere near enough savings to own a nice home here. But most of my coworkers seem eager to return to the office. They miss the office environment, the perks and catered meals, and the socialization. And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in…

> And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in-person interaction, seem even more anxious to get everyone back in their desks. I recently quit my job so I could stop being a manager and return to IC, exactly because of this. In a WFH climate managers have to work twice as hard to stay competitive in the political games.

Sounds like they're half as useful to the business rather than their jobs are twice as hard

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#153

Post by antognini »

sebmellen wrote: post #16
antognini wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why will leases be terminating in Q2 2021 in particular?

This is mainly a concern for one year leases that were renewed this March/April/May, which won't be renewed in 2021. There are many companies which budgeted for a few weeks or months of work from home, now they're transitioning permanently and the office space they were using is no longer needed.

Shouldn't we already be seeing this from leases that were signed in Q3 2019?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#155

Post by sebmellen »

dang wrote: post #142
sebmellen wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do subthreads work? I assume they're just hidden due to divisiveness / flamewar risk?

Mostly it's offtopicness, especially generic tangents: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...

Understood. Hope I didn't do anything "wrong" in this case.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#156

Post by meddlepal »

jelling wrote: post #113
digitaltrees wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It takes some time to get a feel of the culture of a new place, but trust me as someone that has lived in a few other states, it eventually makes a big difference. California has dramatically out performed other states, and is more expensive because it was working, in part because of the culture that is unique to California.

I live in NYC and lots of friends have left town for upstate New York or similar places. But I'm waiting to see how great they think these places are after they have eaten at the same 5 restaurants for a year. And once live culture returns to NYC and other places, how will they feel then? Of course, the other way to look at the de-campers is that they were going to move to the burbs inevitably. Which good for them, b…

I feel like comments like this often lack perspective. Upstate NY, especially Buffalo and Rochester have plenty of things to do in them and far more than five restaurants.

It strikes a nerve with me because in Massachusetts a similar sentiment is expressed by Boston-Cambridge folks about Lowell, Worcester, and other periphery cities. Its simply mot true that these places are devoid of culture snd cuisine and in the age of Yelp and Google Maps it takes almost no time to find it.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#157

Post by mancerayder »

momokoko wrote: post #114
mancerayder wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? How about do what mayors have done for centuries: find ways to encourage investment and movement into the city. Business seems to be moving to places like Austin. Why do you think that is?

You seriously do not think San Francisco and New York have attracted business development? This is yet another version of the classic “No one goes there anymore, it’s too crowded”

Businesses and residents are leaving both cities are a cadence unlike anything we've seen in decades. My point is singular: are mayorships concerned with progressive issues the best qualified to stem that tide? The numbers speak for themselves in terms of residents (tax revenue) and businesses (tax revenue and jobs).

But there's glee in these comments. People are saying things like, who cares about billionnaires and their office buildings.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#158

Post by kristopolous »

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

The other week I was on real estate sites and I saw a bunch of "apartments" in SOMA that just looked like offices with some hastily slapped on anemities, as if there was some "wink wink nudge nudge" going on and they had to call the place an "apartment" for some city ordinance but everyone knew it was an office.

However, I realized it was exactly the opposite. These people were taking their office spaces and desperately chopping them up and getting up to code so they could be leased as apartments.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#159

Post by lumost »

hogFeast wrote: post #68
sebmellen wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Point taken, but I don't think you're taking into account the monumental impact of COVID-19. We've never had such a large, immediate, and impactful shift to work culture. Working remote was still a niche idea at the beginning of 2020, now it's ubiquitous. That has never happened before.

Agreed. Very hard to estimate that effect. With corporate real estate, it is inherently local (you cannot export an office) so the question is about the swings in vacancies. Have some markets seen ~15% vacancies before? Yes, corporate real estate is very cyclical, no-one builds for years, and then the market adds 40-50% in a few years. But when it gets to 30-40% then you are probably looking for examples outside the…

There are a lot of companies that require office space e.g. pharma, hospitals etc.

I wouldn't be surprised to see established companies expand on cheap real estate and start offering closed offices to employees.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#160

Post by dannyw »

digitaltrees wrote: post #93
InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

It takes some time to get a feel of the culture of a new place, but trust me as someone that has lived in a few other states, it eventually makes a big difference. California has dramatically out performed other states, and is more expensive because it was working, in part because of the culture that is unique to California.

If Californians move in bulk the culture will diffuse out; especially in tech hub cities.
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