Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F • Hacker News Board

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#101

Post by flurben » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:32 PM UTC

jacobolus wrote: post #81

InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

The “reasonable taxes” in many places depend on large-scale transfers at the state/federal level from places like SF. But this pandemic is going to be crushing state and municipal budgets across the country, and many of the worst-hit places will be rural and exurban.

You seriously think that everywhere in America with reasonable tax rates is just getting fiscal transfers from SF?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#102

Post by Texasian » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:32 PM UTC

Aeolun wrote: post #70

christiansakai wrote: post #44

How relevant is this to average people? I.e., seems this only affect the rich?

I like how most of HN is probably comfortably within the 1%, but as soon as we start talking about ‘owners of real estate in SF’, we are easily able to call them ‘the rich’, because the wealth is on a completely different level.

Most? You’ve gotta be earning more than 400k to get into the 1%.

Top 10% maybe, since that’s around 125-150k.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#103

Post by jacobolus » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

nimish wrote: post #92

jacobolus wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “reasonable taxes” in many places depend on large-scale transfers at the state/federal level from places like SF. But this pandemic is going to be crushing state and municipal budgets across the country, and many of the worst-hit places will be rural and exurban.

Nah, the spending power of the federal government, and the tax collection of the federal government are not linked. So long as the fed can print money the federal government can spend. It cares not about the states or how much income tax flows in. Hence, it can run up structural deficits until faith is lost in the $ (inflation). State governments, on the other hand, cannot print money. They must operate in a zero-sum…

Yes, the federal government could bail out state and local governments (and indeed that’s some of what the Heroes Act does – passed by the House in May).

But the GOP Senate intransigently refuses to act or even negotiate, and so state/local governments are getting crushed.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#104

Post by sebmellen » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

hogFeast wrote: post #68

sebmellen wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Point taken, but I don't think you're taking into account the monumental impact of COVID-19. We've never had such a large, immediate, and impactful shift to work culture. Working remote was still a niche idea at the beginning of 2020, now it's ubiquitous. That has never happened before.

Agreed. Very hard to estimate that effect. With corporate real estate, it is inherently local (you cannot export an office) so the question is about the swings in vacancies. Have some markets seen ~15% vacancies before? Yes, corporate real estate is very cyclical, no-one builds for years, and then the market adds 40-50% in a few years. But when it gets to 30-40% then you are probably looking for examples outside the…

You're right, things will move on, and I am not (personally) all that worried. Nor are the creditors who can afford to eat a loss.

My concern is more about the ripple effects. Many low-skilled workers rely on service work, and servicing corporate real estate is a real industry (janitorial services, managerial duties, parking lot attendants, plumbers, even construction). They are already having a pretty hard time of it, and if this industry vanishes, "moving on" may mean going out on the streets. San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, and San Diego have enough homeless already.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#105

Post by throw_away » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

chrismcb wrote: post #97

sjg007 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty easy solution on November 3rd. Vote Democrat down ticket.

Democrats are part of the problem. The solution isn't to vote democrat or republican, it is to vote for people that care. Term limits would go a long way to solving that problem.

Getting rid of First Past the Post with something like Star Voting (https://www.starvoting.us) would go much further without imposing arbitrary limits.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#106

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

mancerayder wrote: post #74

rsynnott wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... Wait, what would you expect the mayors to do about it? Use their dictatorial mayoral powers to force people to extend leases or the city’s infinite funds for a stimulus or bailout? The federal government and to some extent the states have the money and power; expecting a mayor to wave a magic wand and fix it is, well... optimistic.

Seriously? How about do what mayors have done for centuries: find ways to encourage investment and movement into the city. Business seems to be moving to places like Austin. Why do you think that is?

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#107

Post by chrismcb » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

xienze wrote: post #27

OpticalWindows wrote: post #5

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

> Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. I would imagine people are experiencing such things already seeing as how it’s been seven months with nothing but a single $1200 check.

We should never have sent a 1200 check at all. The people who need help were the ones who lost their job. And they got it through extra unemployment benefits. I do realize there is an issue with some people who don't qualify for unemployment either because they still work part time or because they were self employed. That group should have been targeted and or given benefits as well

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#108

Post by sjg007 » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

diebeforei485 wrote: post #7

andrewxdiamond wrote: post #3

If this trend continues, I wonder if these office spaces can be converted to apartments. SF is in desperate need of living space

Many of them can't because they don't have sufficient plumbing everywhere (apartments would have far more bathrooms and kitchens) and most buildings can't be retrofitted. Plus, land-use laws would have to change, which is also extremely difficult.

You can reconfigure the more modern ones.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#109

Post by nemothekid » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:34 PM UTC

Aeolun wrote: post #70

christiansakai wrote: post #44

How relevant is this to average people? I.e., seems this only affect the rich?

I like how most of HN is probably comfortably within the 1%, but as soon as we start talking about ‘owners of real estate in SF’, we are easily able to call them ‘the rich’, because the wealth is on a completely different level.

Most of HN is in the 1%? Maybe globally, but I doubt most of HN is in the 1% of America.

A couple of two, both making $200k/year is outside the 1%.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#110

Post by karmelapple » Sun, Oct 25, 2020, 10:34 PM UTC

chrismcb wrote: post #97

sjg007 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty easy solution on November 3rd. Vote Democrat down ticket.

Democrats are part of the problem. The solution isn't to vote democrat or republican, it is to vote for people that care. Term limits would go a long way to solving that problem.

Do you have a suggestion for who to vote for who “cares”?

And as my sibling comment mentioned, eliminating first past the post would, in my opinion, be a gigantic improvement. If you’re in Massachusetts, please vote Yes on 2 this election so we can have ranked choice voting statewide.